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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#91

Post by slaw »

zen_1 wrote: post #65
echelon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

Gaddafi would be happy.

Being an early adopter was not a healthy choice for him.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#92

Post by throwawaymaths »

causi wrote: post #29
echelon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

I have doubts China is suddenly going to decide to stop its extreme currency manipulation. The question is how quickly it will bite the countries trading in it.

Let's not fool ourselves, the USD is a shitty reserve currency.

But: It's amazing that otherwise smart people don't understand that china manipulates their currency worse than the US. How do people think that the evergrande crisis just disappeared? Magical econ dust?

I don't doubt that corrupt regimes can be bought off to the yuan, but it's hard to imagine seeing that going well for them:. USD M2:GDP hovers around 1, RMB M2:GDP is currently around 2.

Even worse, RMB has extreme capital controls. It's difficult for individuals to get RMB out of PRC, because the regime is terrified of capital flight. It's hard to predict what effect this would have on a reserve currency.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#93

Post by throwawaymaths »

ren_engineer wrote: post #63
r00fus wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that the US Govt didn't see this as a national security issue and act accordingly (consequently doing something to prop up local industry) is the real problem. China is playing chess while we're playing checkers.

the difference between having engineers as government leaders versus lawyers. The West is ran by smooth talking lawyers rather than a general sample of the population or subject matter experts here's a visualization of the change over time, career government employees and lawyers took over and things went downhill in the US at least https://i.imgur.com/xdWVes2.gif

The us tried having an engineer leader, Herbert Hoover. It did not end well.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#94

Post by HPsquared »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #81
f6v wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. I can see this as a response to USA banning China from accessing top chip technologies.

A decade or two too late, IMO. They haven't, nor ever likely will, respect IP yet believe the rest of the world will respect theirs.

It's a little similar to the early history of the USA actually, there was a LOT of infringement of British and European patents in the early years. Only later, after significant economic development, did the US become an intellectual property powerhouse.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#95

Post by dmix »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #80

China long-term strategizes while the US often twiddles its thumbs and belatedly responds (it's waking up with the export controls on chip manufacturing tech, but it should have done that a decade ago).

Why should the US instigate trade wars so hard? Why not be pro-free trade as possible (even if it's imbalanced) while investing heavily in their own self-reliance. That sounds more win-win to me than throwing gasoline on the fire when there's little practical self-realiance replacements in the near term without bigger consequences than the alternative.

It's a dangerous game to play without substantial and subsequent investment domestically and among closer partner countries in stuff like manufacturing and mining - ahead of time. Pure competition instead of using bully tactics while only reacting appropriately when the gambles don't play out.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#96

Post by delfinom »

xiphias2 wrote: post #56
echelon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

> This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. It's a 100 year long trend that started with the 1933 gold ban in US, later Bretton Woods, decreasing US global bond portfolio recently, and the Russian central bank asset freezing. Personally I think that defaulting on Russia was a bigger deal than the Yuan bon…

Bitcoin, utterly worthless the moment rockets start flying and knocking out internet infrastructure

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#97

Post by throwawaymaths »

FpUser wrote: post #57
SllX wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just prior to 9/11 or are you talking about the period between 1989 and 9/11?

I see it with my own eyes that after 9/11 things are getting worse. Not sure how it is not clear from my previous answer

I'm not sure you are old enough to remember but at one point a progressive president was aligned with the ku klux klan and put a dissenting socialist journalist in jail.... Just because.

Not too long after (different president), shops were required to put emblems in their window showing they supported the regime's economic plan.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#98

Post by anonymouskimmer »

dmix wrote: post #75
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

There is no scenario where that is a worthy trade off for the immense costs.

Sure there is. The scenario is that you're the decision maker and don't have to personally suffer the immense costs.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#99

Post by HDThoreaun »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

China is worried about being blockaded, which is a large threat due to their reliance on middle eastern oil. The status quo makes it relatively easy for the American navy to completely encircle their shores, but without Taiwan that strategy breaks down.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#100

Post by delfinom »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #59
moose_man wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look I understand countries are complicated and there are a lot of interests however I think that the Chinese government is totally capable of acting in a centralized way on a fixed target like mining (vs. something like semiconductors) when it believes it is a core national interest.

> however I think that the Chinese government is totally capable of acting in a centralized way on a fixed target like mining Spend a couple weeks in China's hinterland and I'm sure that your opinion would change very quickly. There are good reasons semiconductors are concentrated in Beijing/Shanghai, but anything mining or natural resource related are going to be messy because China is a huge country and local gover…

Yea people literally treat China as a hivemind. The same goes for other countries too. It's absolutely bizarre and often some sort of weird US centric mindset.

Part of it I even blame on US media, somehow, whenever there's something to discuss about in another country, even if it's some research breakthrough by a single individual presenting his work at a elementary school instead its "COUNTRY X CURES CANCER"

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