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Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

hindenburgresearch.com

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Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#141

Post by schintan »

suprgeek wrote: post #97

A few items that did not make it into the list: 1) Adani is very close to the current ruling party and the PM - deploying his extensive business network and assets (in various forms) to help get the PM elected (2014) and then re-elected. A bit of googling will reveal the vast scale of politico-corporate nexus between these two - extending all the way back to when they were chums in Gujarat - the Indian state of the P…

Adani also owns a majority stake in NDTV Group now : https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/indias-ndtv-f...

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#142

Post by Animats »

safog wrote: post #39

He's too big to fail status in India, so it'll be interesting to see how their short position unfolds. They can keep the scam going for much longer than Hindenburg can keep their short I imagine.

That's what Hanjin thought in Korea. Closely tied to a chaebol. Too big and too well connected to fail. Until they weren't.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#143

Post by headsoup »

vishnugupta wrote: post #96
HWR_14 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why any entity is "too big to fail".

My understanding is that if an entity going down results in a widespread wealth destruction in the entire domain then it's deemed to be too-big-to-fail. It would in turn lead to social unrest threatening the stability of government. Like a huge lender going bust would lead to credit shrinkage leading to millions of small/medium businesses going bust.

Exactly. It's not 'too big to fail,' it's 'too big for the Government to let fail.'

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#144

Post by headsoup »

downvoteme1 wrote: post #103

This is something that is well known to Indian investors that most of Adani companies are vaporware that basically have no revenue and trade for price to sales ratio much higher than other companies. However this guy and his family members are pretty well connected and would be fine as long as Modi is India’s PM. In fact it is even stated that this guy is basically a kingmaker as his massive inflated fortune funds th…

Unless the corruption is so clear and irrefutable and the media actually presses hard enough that Modi decides it's time to throw Adani under the bus to save himself.

But that's a high bar I assume...

If the rest of the world weren't also so corrupt, it'd be fairly trivial to call out Adani and cancel all business with them and add some nice sanctions, but that's not the world we're in it seems.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#145

Post by Sai_ »

trustingtrust wrote: post #111

The Ambanis are actually not very different from the Adanis, just better at hiding. Hindenburg might have take a short position based on numbers but its likely that as long as the current government stays in power its unlikely these two giants (whether they are really giants or no) will change as governments play a big role in such things. Like someone pointed out, it's more likely that their cons will outlast Hinden…

From the article, Hindenburg’s short positions are outside India’s capital markets which (presumably) have better oversight/more skittish/sophisticated investors who would prefer not to do business with a sham company.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#146

Post by lmm »

thefreeman wrote: post #132
stale2002 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is one of margin calling, and other institutions being unwilling to lend you infinite amounts of money. Even if your investment strategy is sound, if in the short term, you on paper owe stock that is "worth" billions of dollars, the institutions that you are owning this paper billions of dollars too, could be unwilling to just trust that you will be able to pay it. Thus, they bake in contractual provisions,…

But if the stock goes to zero and you are shorting it the trade was massively profitable. why would you then be at risk of a margin call?

If trading is halted or it's delisted, how can you prove the value of the stock is zero?

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#147

Post by trustingtrust »

Sai_ wrote: post #145
trustingtrust wrote: post #111

The Ambanis are actually not very different from the Adanis, just better at hiding. Hindenburg might have take a short position based on numbers but its likely that as long as the current government stays in power its unlikely these two giants (whether they are really giants or no) will change as governments play a big role in such things. Like someone pointed out, it's more likely that their cons will outlast Hinden…

From the article, Hindenburg’s short positions are outside India’s capital markets which (presumably) have better oversight/more skittish/sophisticated investors who would prefer not to do business with a sham company.

Betting against it is doing business with the company. Whether directly in the Indian market or in a market outside India. If I bet against a race happening in some other part of the world, I am in some capacity (indirectly) involved in the race. All they are doing is using analysis to predict a crash and betting against it.

I dont like the idea of 'This seems fishy so let's bet against it'. If something feels fishy stay away from it as much as possible. Michael Burry doesn't happen every day.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#148

Post by RobotsDownUnder »

stephen_g wrote: post #139
themitigating wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did they do that was worse?

They went on big firing sprees around the public service, just absolute slash and burn style, huge spending cuts to the budget, reduction in services, and were getting ready to privitise a lot of public assets that bring in a lot of revenue (things that have been privitised in other states and have turned out to be disasters there, gouging people for essential services, like the power transmission networks). They und…

One more point is that the QLD Labour wing is much further to the right and much less progressive when it comes to coal and global warming. The vested interest in coal mining has limited a lot of the green energy push even as places like Brisbane and The Reef face some of the biggest challeges due to climate change.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#149

Post by gsatic »

kamaal wrote: post #128
livueta wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't even have to be a direct payout, there are always 'projects' you can give and pay them some 1000% extra money compared what it would otherwise cost. In other words a government(tax funded) bailout is easily doable and will be done, when the need arises. In many ways the party is just giving money to itself(Electoral bonds). I'm reminded of this: https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/12/20/can-indias-riches…

India's case is unfortunately a lot more worse. The reason why this sort of corruption gets an easy pass is because the public is not necessarily against corruption. They like to imagine themselves as temporarily embarrassed 'millionaires' type of section. While the discussion is always on the lines corruption being bad, its only used in the context of looking better. Pretty much everyone wants a government job, or a…

Its more an inequality story than a corruption story. Corruption is always a side effect of inequality.

If an ambitious, energetic kid is born in a slum or some backward area and doesn't see legitimate ways to access resources/climb the ladder, chances are very high the kid will take shortcuts. That's the nature of high energy, ambitious people. These people, purely based on the drive they have, influence the behavior of the rest that surround them.

When such people are identified early, and given the right guidance/resources the outcomes are totally different.

Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud

#150

Post by arcticfox »

trustingtrust wrote: post #147
Sai_ wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article, Hindenburg’s short positions are outside India’s capital markets which (presumably) have better oversight/more skittish/sophisticated investors who would prefer not to do business with a sham company.

Betting against it is doing business with the company. Whether directly in the Indian market or in a market outside India. If I bet against a race happening in some other part of the world, I am in some capacity (indirectly) involved in the race. All they are doing is using analysis to predict a crash and betting against it. I dont like the idea of 'This seems fishy so let's bet against it'. If something feels fishy…

> Betting against it is doing business with the company.

What do you mean? I struggle to understand how betting against a company is "doing business" with them, it seems even less like "doing business" than having no relationship at all. You are actively signaling you expect them to fail.

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