The Ambanis are actually not very different from the Adanis, just better at hiding. Hindenburg might have take a short position based on numbers but its likely that as long as the current government stays in power its unlikely these two giants (whether they are really giants or no) will change as governments play a big role in such things. Like someone pointed out, it's more likely that their cons will outlast Hindenburgs short positions. Also we dont know the size of Hindenburgs short. For all we care they have shorted 10$ for this article. I am not defending Adani but I did make money on Adani Wilmar simply because compared to other FMCG stocks it was actually undervalued. If you look at some of the other fmcgs they are significantly more overvalued than Adani Wilmar was when it entered IPO. I gained almost 3x in a short while after which it hit the overvaluation equal to other FMCGs and I exited obviously because from a value stand point it made no sense even at IPO. So when Hindenburg says this will all crash, they are assuming everyone goes by the books in this world.
Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
111–120 of 230 posts
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. You own a company. 2. Your company produces something hugely useful / beneficial for society; in other words, it produces something hugely valuable. 3. Your company is therefore valuable, making you super wealthy. Which part of the above is unethical?
> 2. Your company produces something hugely useful / beneficial for society; in other words, it produces something hugely valuable. 2. Your company extracts value from everywhere it can, to the detriment of it's counterparties: employees, the environment, customers, partners, contractors For one example: Amazon warehouse employees (contractors?) are not paid very well for very hard work. I'm sure someone has a comeba…
I used to work at a car part store and the majority of the staff was teenagers looking to get into the car world (either future mechanics, or car parts managers) but they WAY under paid us for the type of work. Repair shops looking for specialty parts that someone with mechanics experience should really be looking for, not some teenager asking "whats a brake rotor?". We had a revolving door of workers and our customers knew we were terrible and likely to get the wrong part. Getting screamed at by customers was daily because we had no idea what they were doing. However the exploitation was a trade off of, "I'll get a year experience and go to a dealership" or "I just need a filler job until I get a better job". It was ""exploitive"" but it was extremely helpful to me, it was the only job willing to let me be part time while in school that didn't involve hard physical labour. I did more exploitive jobs before, working 10+ hours hand shoveling snow in -40 for $10/hour. That company didn't last very long because they drained the whole city of potential employees and never knew who was gonna show the next day.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#113A few items that did not make it into the list: 1) Adani is very close to the current ruling party and the PM - deploying his extensive business network and assets (in various forms) to help get the PM elected (2014) and then re-elected. A bit of googling will reveal the vast scale of politico-corporate nexus between these two - extending all the way back to when they were chums in Gujarat - the Indian state of the P…
The article has lots of factual arguments going. But it misses the 1) point you mentioned. Regardless of whatever people like to believe, that guy isn't going crash and burn, go bankrupt or anything like that.
It's fairly simple for the government to bail him out. They already did that to Anil Ambani. It doesn't even have to be a direct payout, there are always 'projects' you can give and pay them some 1000% extra money compared what it would otherwise cost. In other words a government(tax funded) bailout is easily doable and will be done, when the need arises. In many ways the party is just giving money to itself(Electoral bonds).
Just to complete the argument, don't expect any backlash against the government either. The current ruling party enjoys nearly 'no prior conditions' based support from their constituency regardless of whatever they do, no matter big a disaster unfolds. And this is going to be the case for the foreseeable future(think decades).
To summarise, whatever fraud this is, no matter how big the impact of this on the Indian economy. In fact even if takes down the whole set up with him. He is just going to emerge from this fine. And the government will bail him out without any consequences for them.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#114If these companies assets or stocks go to zero or are locked due to fraud or something that makes the actual public stocks untradable, how do you get out of a short position? Borrowing and selling the stock means you can’t get it back to return to the original owner, and buying put options means you can’t sell the stock to the contract holder. Do you have to get out before it gets completely vaporized?
If stocks go to zero, it's generally easy to get your hands on them, since people holding those shares will want to realize capital losses for tax purposes. Even if the stock is delisted from exchanges, brokerages routinely "buy" such shares from their clients, and I'm sure they would make the shares available to anyone wanting to close out a short position.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 2. Your company produces something hugely useful / beneficial for society; in other words, it produces something hugely valuable. 2. Your company extracts value from everywhere it can, to the detriment of it's counterparties: employees, the environment, customers, partners, contractors For one example: Amazon warehouse employees (contractors?) are not paid very well for very hard work. I'm sure someone has a comeba…
I used to work at a car part store and the majority of the staff was teenagers looking to get into the car world (either future mechanics, or car parts managers) but they WAY under paid us for the type of work. Repair shops looking for specialty parts that someone with mechanics experience should really be looking for, not some teenager asking "whats a brake rotor?". We had a revolving door of workers and our custome…
I find it interesting how quickly people will defend their own exploitation.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#116If these companies assets or stocks go to zero or are locked due to fraud or something that makes the actual public stocks untradable, how do you get out of a short position? Borrowing and selling the stock means you can’t get it back to return to the original owner, and buying put options means you can’t sell the stock to the contract holder. Do you have to get out before it gets completely vaporized?
The Adani Group is massive, transnational, and has resource partnerships that cross continents with multiple joint companies and government relations.
There are relationships with Indian banking giant ICICI that are questionable and that also cross continents.
And more (it's big wall map tiny font material here).
Point being, shaking up the Adani Groups reputation has flow on effects that can be capitalised upon in many ways by shorting many other associated companies that may fail due to governments losing confidence to proceed on large projects, choosing other partners, etc.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#117[withdrawn]
I don't think you not having heard of the guy mentioned makes it machine generated? You could Google him, he is very big fish but keeps a low profile in the media. Most of his wealth is also stocks so it's highly vulnerable to fluctuations.
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#118I started reading but couldn't get my sleepy brain around how Adani manipulated the stocks. Sure, the valuations are astronomical but doesn't indicate that Adanis themselves are behind the rise? Can someone please post a TLDR?
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#119He's too big to fail status in India, so it'll be interesting to see how their short position unfolds. They can keep the scam going for much longer than Hindenburg can keep their short I imagine.
According to Wikipedia Adani is in with Modi, the current Indian prime minster who likes to play favourites. Thus he could get quite a bit of protection at home. But that may not protect him from a market run...
Wikipedia is a reliable source?
Re: Evidence that Adani Group has engaged in stock manipulation and accounting fraud
#120[flagged]
1. You own a company. 2. Your company produces something hugely useful / beneficial for society; in other words, it produces something hugely valuable. 3. Your company is therefore valuable, making you super wealthy. Which part of the above is unethical?
The company has no externalities or strategic competitors and doesn't leverage market dominance? Is it situated at the North Pole and run by a jolly old man in a bright red suit?