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Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

france24.com

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Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#141

Post by mercer »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #28
znpy wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hysteria is about hospital saturation. People recover, but a lot of people recover after spending a long time under intensive care and breathing machines (which are available in a limited quantity). So if a lot of people get sick at the same time then a lot of them will die just because there are not enough beds and intensive care units available. Dude don't be dismissive, this shit is serious.

Not sure if it is about hospitals any more. The confusion is we don’t have a goal in mind we agree on. e.g. Many hospitals are almost empty and they have to furlough doctors/nurses...

At least over here in NL, while hospitals are not over-taxed anymore, those who work in them really need a break.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#142

Post by ryandrake »

petre wrote: post #101
abraxas wrote: post #42

I hope he doesn’t make it. The death of this person is likely to be a net positive for the health of the Amazon and thus the planet. I don’t usually wish badly upon people. This is one of the few cases where I do.

He still doesn't deserve to die. There are other more constructive ways to turn it into a net positive like not re-elect him.

I think the applicable quote could be: "I've never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure."

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#143

Post by rv-de »

mcv wrote: post #129
mindslight wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say Trump is that stupid, either due to some mental degeneration or perhaps simply never being told "no" in his life. Covid should have made for a shoe-in second term. Give televised speeches reassuring and leading through a tough time, act on the advice of public health experts, and deflect the economic damage as doing the best we can. The wartime president boost. I think he could have even switched to this…

Trump is stupid, but he is also a germophobe. Bolsonaro is stupid and not a germophobe. Putin, of course, is neither, but quite happy to see the rest of the world in chaos.

The new system to classify leaders. Now the question remains - who is stupid and a germophobe?

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#144

Post by gizmo »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #127
gizmo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We didn't lock down for the Hong Kong flu or similar pandemics, because the damage caused by a lockdown is immense. Health damage caused by delayed cancer screenings and organ transplants. Psychological damage caused by lockdown and unemployment. Unbelievable economic damage. How to respond to a pandemic is a trade-off. People die in traffic accidents every day. Do we set a nation-wide speed limit of 5 MPH? No. Of co…

Hong Kong flu was significantly less deadly than Covid in United states, perhaps 3 to 10 times. NYC death rate is at least .2% which would translate to 600 000 death across the US, and that is a very rough estimate. Even more importantly without lockdowns you'd get even worse clusterhell in the hospitals, which would have to do triage between neverneding stream of Covid patients and "normal" patients, who need an urg…

At least a million people died of the Hong Kong flu. Much more as a percentage of the world population. And Covid19 doesn't seem to take hold anywhere in the pacific rim, regardless of policy. Lockdown or not, masks or not, good or bad hospitals, it doesn't matter. None of the countries in the rim got hit hard. This tells us it's all about herd immunity, and about getting there with as few casualties as possible.

NYC locked down after peak infection; completely pointless. If you're going to lock down you have to do it way early, before the virus has spread everywhere. Sweden didn't lock down. Did we see uncontrolled spread there? Nope. The virus came and petered out after infecting a critical mass of people.

The NYC death rate would never hold over the entire US because a large part of it was the result of disastrous policy of sending covid patients to care homes, and an aggressive venting policy that killed many. Bear in mind that covid19 is a hotspot disease and some parts of the world are always going to get hit much worse than other parts of the world. Extrapolating from outlier hotspots is bad science.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#145

Post by [deleted] »

SwiftyBug wrote: post #140
petre wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was elected by 55% of the very same people. His people. Voting is mandatory in Brazil and one gets a fine of 3.51 BRL and has to provide justification if they fail to participate.

Voting is mandatory but one can nullify their vote, vote blank or just not vote at all (thus, having to pay the fine) which was the case of 30% of the votes in the last presidential election in Brazil. So the actual percentage of people who wanted him as president is much lower than 55%.

[deleted]

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#146

Post by elihu »

briefcomment wrote: post #80
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really wish people (not you) would stop pushing the idea that death is the only consequence of COVID. Three different NFL players have said their lungs still aren't recovered and they're still getting winded months after having COVID. These are people in their 30s and younger and in some of the best fitness in the world. Plenty of stories of blood clotting leading to many other issues in the general population duri…

Aren't we all going to catch this sooner or later, especially with recent reports that it spreads 30 feet in the air through just breathing [1]? So while there are lasting effects on some who are infected, the vast majority probably handle it totally fine, there are probably more people who have had it than we previously thought, especially considering we're changing our assumptions on how contagious it is, and we're…

> Aren't we all going to catch this sooner or later...

Not necessarily. China and most of Europe have done a pretty good job of reducing spread to the point where it's likely that most people won't get it, assuming we get a working vaccine eventually.

In the U.S., we've flattened the curve but whether we end up with the "herd immunity" scenario where most people get it or one where we get spread under control and it slowly dies out depends on our actions in the coming months. (We also might get different outcomes in different parts of the country.)

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#147

Post by petre »

SwiftyBug wrote: post #140
petre wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was elected by 55% of the very same people. His people. Voting is mandatory in Brazil and one gets a fine of 3.51 BRL and has to provide justification if they fail to participate.

Voting is mandatory but one can nullify their vote, vote blank or just not vote at all (thus, having to pay the fine) which was the case of 30% of the votes in the last presidential election in Brazil. So the actual percentage of people who wanted him as president is much lower than 55%.

It doesn't matter. Null votes don't count. They should have voted for the other guy if they didn't like Bolsonaro.

Mandatory voting is just another useless attempt to mask the fact that today's politicians are not actual leaders but rather worthless reality TV personas. Like in Ukraine where people picked an actual actor in an attempt to mock the worthless political class. It's typical Eastern European absurd humour. Adam Curtis' HyperNormalisation documentary explains it quite well.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#148

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

gizmo wrote: post #144
SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong flu was significantly less deadly than Covid in United states, perhaps 3 to 10 times. NYC death rate is at least .2% which would translate to 600 000 death across the US, and that is a very rough estimate. Even more importantly without lockdowns you'd get even worse clusterhell in the hospitals, which would have to do triage between neverneding stream of Covid patients and "normal" patients, who need an urg…

At least a million people died of the Hong Kong flu. Much more as a percentage of the world population. And Covid19 doesn't seem to take hold anywhere in the pacific rim, regardless of policy. Lockdown or not, masks or not, good or bad hospitals, it doesn't matter. None of the countries in the rim got hit hard. This tells us it's all about herd immunity, and about getting there with as few casualties as possible. NYC…

I am not talking about whole world; I was talking in particular about US. It is still unclear about the final death tall of Covid, but it clearly is going to be close to a million, perhaps 2 or so. You operate with a very odd definition of Pacfifc Rim btw, USA, Canada, Mexico, Equador were all hit badly - all of them are countries of pacific rim.

Sweden is actually an excellent example of a bad policy. Economically doing as bad as their neighbors, and had enormous death toll compared to Norway, Germany, Iceland, Denmark and Finland, countries (esp. Norway) with similar culture and attitudes. Also we are in summer now, and the virus may well come back and hit Sweden with a lot bigger force, just because so much more of it there.

Not locking down during the Hong Kong flu was by the way a terrible decision. Had they introduced at least some measures, such masks and limited lockdowns the number of dead would have been much lower.

I by the way divided NY rate by 3, I counted as if all of NYC had acquired the disease. So no, .2% is reasonable expectaion, and .1% of total population of will clearly be reached within several months, it is already halfway there.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#149

Post by gizmo »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #148
gizmo wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least a million people died of the Hong Kong flu. Much more as a percentage of the world population. And Covid19 doesn't seem to take hold anywhere in the pacific rim, regardless of policy. Lockdown or not, masks or not, good or bad hospitals, it doesn't matter. None of the countries in the rim got hit hard. This tells us it's all about herd immunity, and about getting there with as few casualties as possible. NYC…

I am not talking about whole world; I was talking in particular about US. It is still unclear about the final death tall of Covid, but it clearly is going to be close to a million, perhaps 2 or so. You operate with a very odd definition of Pacfifc Rim btw, USA, Canada, Mexico, Equador were all hit badly - all of them are countries of pacific rim. Sweden is actually an excellent example of a bad policy. Economically d…

Pacific Rim definition I use: https://www.yourdictionary.com/pacific-rim. I'm not talking about the Americas.

Sweden did a lot better in Q1. It was the only western European country with positive growth, and it vastly outperformed everybody else. I expect they'll also outperform the rest of Europe in subsequent quarters, but this will remain to be seen. The death toll in Sweden is completely in line with its neighbors. This is evident when you look at All Cause Mortality. Their definition of "with covid" deaths is far more generous than their neighbors, so comparing the numbers from worldometers is not apples-to-apples.

My analysis suggests Sweden is very close to herd immunity, and they won't have a second wave. The countries that haven't reached herd immunity yet can choose between locking down in perpetuity or dragging out the process for no gain. There is no vaccin and the virus can't be contained or exterminated. People in the west won't put up with a totalitarian China style lockdown.

The research on mask effectiveness is still very contradictory. The health organizations of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland all claims masks don't work, as did the CDC and WHO. Research clearly indicates some viral load is blocked by masks, but there aren't any studies that connect mask use with actual infection rates. We don't even know to what degree asymptomatic infections are a thing. I suspect a large percentage of infections happen because symptomatic people refuse to stay home, and anecdotal evidence from superspreading events supports this.

Deaths in the US are trending down and will continue to trend down in 95% of counties. There will be hotspots here and there in places that didn't get hit in the last few months, but there won't be a second wave. You see deaths doubling from here, I think that's exceedingly unlikely.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#150

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

gizmo wrote: post #149
SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not talking about whole world; I was talking in particular about US. It is still unclear about the final death tall of Covid, but it clearly is going to be close to a million, perhaps 2 or so. You operate with a very odd definition of Pacfifc Rim btw, USA, Canada, Mexico, Equador were all hit badly - all of them are countries of pacific rim. Sweden is actually an excellent example of a bad policy. Economically d…

Pacific Rim definition I use: https://www.yourdictionary.com/pacific-rim . I'm not talking about the Americas. Sweden did a lot better in Q1. It was the only western European country with positive growth, and it vastly outperformed everybody else. I expect they'll also outperform the rest of Europe in subsequent quarters, but this will remain to be seen. The death toll in Sweden is completely in line with its neighbo…

I do not operate with "all cause mortality". I look at the excess death in April May, and in Sweden is so much higher it is not a serious conversation to even dispute that.
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