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Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

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Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh, that sounds reasonable. I'm guessing you would need to wait for immunization to be developed for restrictions on high risk people are loosened?

It's not reasonable. You can't quarantine vulnerable people completely. If everyone gets it, every bag of groceries is going to be covered in COVID and an enormous number of quarantined people will die. You can't tell who's going to die from it. You can't have everyone getting sick at once. The death rate will go up tremendously if nobody can get treatment when they have treatable symptoms. This is what "flattening t…

For how long? You can't keep society inside for a long period of time. It just won't work.

Couple weeks? Sure.

3 months? Barely, it seems.

1 year? No. It just won't work.

(I don't think we'll get to that point, but I think that the point stands: quarantine is a short term fix.)

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#142
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The disease does not affect age groups equally. From what I've seen, most victims are in the 60+ age groups. From NYC fatality report [0]: 0-9: 1 0% 10-19: 6 0.1% 20-29: 56 0.4% 30-39: 227 1.6% 40-49: 535 3.7% 50-59: 1410 9.8% 60-69: 2863 20.0% 70-79: 3811 26.6% 80-89: 1753 25.4% 90+: 12.2% Think of people having a "vitality score" that decreases with age, and of disease as a stressor that kills people with the "vita…

So you are okay with 16 out of every 1000, 30-39 year old person with a family and young kids who are otherwise healthy, die just so you could go out to eat in your favorite restaurant? You are willing to sacrifice them for your benefit. How altruistic of you!

Nitpick: The percentages sum up to 100, and represent the percent of total deaths, not deaths among people of certain age.

Not sure pointing fingers helps. Someone could also point fingers and claim "so you're willing to let people starve in the streets, how altruistic of you". It's a highly emotional and volatile situation, let's keep our cool.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#143

It's worth noting that there is a lot of discussion in serious circles (including here on HN) about the balance between too much and not enough with respect to quarantine, lockdown, etc., both in terms of where we are now and what we should do in the near future. I see little reason to doubt that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery, even if they may disagree radically about how to do that. It…

>I see little reason to doubt that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery, even if they may disagree radically about how to do that. Wait, are you talking about the people who want to send everyone back to work now, even though we don't even have masks for doctors yet? Are you saying they are trying to minimize death and misery? Or are we talking about completely different people here?

>Wait, are you talking about the people who want to send everyone back to work now

This is an argument made in a bad faith. You can't send "everyone to work now", if you are not running a gulag. People who are financially secure can stay at home till 2021, nobody can force them to go to work, this is obvious.

It's a question of being able to make a personal decision between staying at home or going to work.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#144
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We tend to want to lump people into camps so we don't have to go through and see all the various sub-categories and determine if they are OK or not. Some states are restricting fishing and hunting... That's not a team sport and if I use a lure (edit: as in I don't even have to go to the store for bait) I'm not going to affect anyone else. Some protesters want to get haircuts.... GET OVER IT. I feel like both sides ha…

> Some protesters want to get haircuts.... GET OVER IT. People feed themselves and provide their family's healthcare by providing haircuts. Everything is essential to someone. I wouldn't be so dismissive.

>Everything is essential to someone.

No, we've built our economy on non-essential work. That's good 99% of the time but it's definitely not essential. The government shutting down these small businesses means, it should (imo) maintain the business owners it shut down. But to call that service essential is not correct.

I'm speaking to the vanity of wanting to get your hair dyed during a pandemic, not the businesses that were shutdown. We should accept as a society that we incurred a great debt by shutting the economy down for the duration we have. And that we owe it to the businesses we shutdown, to keep them afloat.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see little reason to doubt that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery At the risk of sounding inflammatory, there are pretty clearly some actors who would welcome death and misery upon others if it meant they made some money.

It's a quibble, but I'm stretching to think of any example of a person welcoming death and misery upon another for the purpose of monetary profit. Generally those who welcome death do it for other reasons, and those motivated by money accept or ignore others' deaths, but do not particularly welcome them.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RFI: I'm interested in learning more about an alternative strategy to the lockdown.

Sweden has open schools, movie theaters, restaurants (limited people; tables further apart) and bars (can't buy beer). People are working from home when they can. High risk people and older people are told to self isolate. Their hospitals are not overwhelmed. Their people do no wear masks. They hope the infection can spread slowly and they can deal with it. Sweden is criticized heavily, but if their strategy works, t…

Even assuming a high undetected multiplier, a small fraction of their population has been exposed. There's not much reason to expect it to slow down any time soon, their overall immunity isn't going to be much different than anywhere else at this point.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#147

It's worth noting that there is a lot of discussion in serious circles (including here on HN) about the balance between too much and not enough with respect to quarantine, lockdown, etc., both in terms of where we are now and what we should do in the near future. I see little reason to doubt that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery, even if they may disagree radically about how to do that. It…

>that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery

Unless the anti-quarantine events are organized by a hostile power.

And this seems likely since they are insanely harmfully, arose suddenly and with widespread and great organization and have a lot of precedent. [1][2][3]

And especially since it's already been explicitly shown for at least some of the domains connected to the protests.[4]

[1]https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/26/media/russia-trolls-faceboo...

[2]https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-backed-facebook-account...

[3]https://thehill.com/policy/technology/358025-thousands-atten...

[4]https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/04/whos-behind-the-reopen-d...

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even read the links I posted?

Your reddit link includes photos of real people at a demonstration. Astro-turfing wouldn't produce that, unless they were paid actors.

Astroturfing influences other peoples behaviour - that's the whole point.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#149
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is your position that people who will be made unemployed as a result of the economic destruction have enough savings and that we are providing enough benefits for them to survive? 59% of Americans could not afford $1,000 in an emergency. [1] So you're talking about an optimistic runway of $1,000 + a $1,200 one-time benefit payment. The average person will be in poverty within 60 days. I think you're dramatically over…

Of course I’m not. I’m pointing out why looking at the mortality rate of poverty doesn’t support the argument that the economy implications of shelter in place are somehow deadlier than the disease itself. The onus is still on you to make a meaningful argument to support that statement.

It's a prediction based on opinion and data, so I'm not able to support it beyond background references.

You're asking me to prove something that hasn't occurred yet.

My point is, poverty is deadly, the coronavirus response causes massive unemployment, unemployment causes poverty and so it's pretty obvious that the economic implications have a death rate associated with them that won't shake out for years. In my opinion, it'll be significantly worse.

I don't like it when people hand wave away the blight of those in poverty for personal safety. These people have awful outcomes, and they're treated as collateral damage.

The media talks about death from poverty all the time, except for now. Why? You cannot pause the economy without dramatic upheavals in industry and community.

For example, one particular study found that from the 2008 economic crisis there were nearly 5,000 excess suicides in a single year. Well, this crisis is substantially worse and will last substantially longer.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0...

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reddit link includes photos of real people at a demonstration. Astro-turfing wouldn't produce that, unless they were paid actors.

Astroturfing influences other peoples behaviour - that's the whole point.

In that case, it seems a little trickier to distinguish astroturfing vs. something I just personally do not agree with.
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