Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January • Hacker News Board

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#141

Post by salawat » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:29 AM UTC

kayfox wrote: post #24

ChuckMcM wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a question, but the answer is probably pretty mundane. An airplane is a tremendously complex machine, and building them is a well honed process with lots of checks and balances built in which protect the investment the company is making in building such a complex device. So no doubt there are many many root cause analysis meetings which are going on to root out the failures in the process that let the plane get…

I fully expect this was put out there to put this ball (tens of thousands of jobs lost) in the FAA's court. I also fully expect Boeing to halt production if the FAA processes drag out longer, its not economical to continue making aircraft and not delivering them, in that if they don't deliver them, they don't get paid. There's a point where its no longer due diligence, but decision paralysis. I don't know if were any…

As unfortunate as that is, due to overconsolidation, this is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

If Boeing were just one in a field of aircraft manufacturers, this wouldn't be half as catastrophic, since that whole supply chain would have everyone else to supply.

But that isn't the case anymore, and it is about time overconsolidation bit something in the arse.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#142

Post by astrodust » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:39 AM UTC

room271 wrote: post #58

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground Legally, everyone is indemnified up the wazoo. Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. Not only do they lose the planes on order. They also lose their service and replacement-parts provider. The survivors would, in the medium-term, face an Airbus monopoly and, in the long-term, a Chinese-European duo…

But the airlines know that Boeing will never go under because the US government would (justifiably) never let that happen for strategic reasons.

Hence Boeing will never improve, it'll just be in a perpetual death spiral.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#143

Post by mdorazio » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:42 AM UTC

ismail wrote: post #122

wayoutthere wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground. Boeing is one of the most heavily subsidized companies in the world -- right alongside Airbus. They are a strategic asset to the United States far beyond their market value. The market knows this, hence why their stock is not being hammered.

I am not from the states. both of the comments below indicate that Boeing is a strategic asset. Other comments also express similar sentiments. What is the logic for this? why is this the case? “They are a strategic asset to the United States far beyond their market value.” ”the airlines know that Boeing will never go under because the US government would (justifiably) never let that happen for strategic reasons“

Boeing is not just a commercial aircraft manufacturer, it is a commercial and military equipment & services giant. Commercial aircraft account for 60% of its revenue, but the other 40% is military aircraft (including fighters and drones), satellites, missiles, and all kinds of defense department contracts. You cannot sink the company without significantly impacting US intelligence and military capabilities fairly quickly.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#144

Post by duckymcduckface » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:42 AM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #83

room271 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the airlines know that Boeing will never go under because the US government would (justifiably) never let that happen for strategic reasons.

Boeing has burned a lot of political and public capital recently so they may actually be in hot water over this. As a Canadian I'm still pretty outraged over the stupidity that the US carried out at Bombardier - Boeing basically told the US Government "Hey, those Canadians are better than us at everything" and then the US Government said "Oh, poor baby, well we'll just help the free market out with a 300% tariff." Th…

Althought as a Montrealer I am really unhappy that the C-series is now called the A220, I was very happy when Bombardier basically bitch slapped Boeing by getting Airbus to buy it and make it in the US.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#145

Post by salawat » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:43 AM UTC

CharlesColeman wrote: post #116

snuxoll wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 737 Max is doomed without the MCAS, the entire reason it exists is to keep the same type rating the same to keep pilots from needing to re-certify. Airlines will have serious reason to consider other manufacturers if they can’t just throw pilots behind the stick with minimal training.

> The 737 Max is doomed without the MCAS, the entire reason it exists is to keep the same type rating the same to keep pilots from needing to re-certify. That's what Boeing wanted, but that doesn't mean they should get it. Anyway, I think "doomed" is overstating it. I would assume whatever training an existing 737 pilot would need to fly and MCAS-less MAX would be far less that what they would need to fly an Airbus.

The MAX can't be certified for civil air transport without MCAS. That's the rub. If Boeing could have built and certified the plane without it, they would have.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#146

Post by munk-a » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:44 AM UTC

duckymcduckface wrote: post #144

munk-a wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boeing has burned a lot of political and public capital recently so they may actually be in hot water over this. As a Canadian I'm still pretty outraged over the stupidity that the US carried out at Bombardier - Boeing basically told the US Government "Hey, those Canadians are better than us at everything" and then the US Government said "Oh, poor baby, well we'll just help the free market out with a 300% tariff." Th…

Althought as a Montrealer I am really unhappy that the C-series is now called the A220, I was very happy when Bombardier basically bitch slapped Boeing by getting Airbus to buy it and make it in the US.

It was hilarious to watch the Airbus licensing, but Bombardier also got the raw end of the deal - with the corner they were backed into they're going to end up seeing a lot less revenue off that model then they had planned.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#147

Post by sfifs » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:47 AM UTC

nickjj wrote: post #50

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground Legally, everyone is indemnified up the wazoo. Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. Not only do they lose the planes on order. They also lose their service and replacement-parts provider. The survivors would, in the medium-term, face an Airbus monopoly and, in the long-term, a Chinese-European duo…

> Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. It is an interesting situation for airlines. Boeing is kind of a leaky abstraction layer on flying. End users deal with the airlines, not so much Boeing directly. For example, if Amazon ships your package and it comes 4 days late because FedEx screwed up, you're going to likely think negatively of Amazon not FedEx. Because from your POV it's "Ama…

Airlines know that which is why the PR has been particularly brutal on Boeing. Everyone has tried to shift blame to Boeing overtly or covertly even as Boeing tried to shift blame to pilots, regulators, airlines etc. In this particular case, Boeing's PR machinery got overwhelmed and in this day and age of high social value if authenticity, the bland corporate legalese speak adopted by its spokespeople hasn't helped.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#148

Post by drdeadringer » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:49 AM UTC

kayfox wrote: post #11

jamiek88 wrote: post #2

A lot of people thought this couldn’t happen. Difficult to overstate the enormity of this to the industry.

Would the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights.

There was a related chapter the last book of Robert J. Sawyer's "WWW Trilogy".

The AI throughout the thread survives for long enough to see Humanity evacuate the Earth given Sol's transformation to swallow the inner planets.

Copies of the Original AI had been spread across intersolar Human civilization, but the original technically speaking had to remain on Earth. That chapter was titled something along the lines of "Will the last human please turn off the sun" or similar [it's been at least 5 years for me on the reading].

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#149

Post by CydeWeys » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:56 AM UTC

CharlesColeman wrote: post #119

allovernow wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Though personally I feel perhaps Boeing should be left to fail, I'm considering going long if the stock slides further in the short term because I anticipate some form of bailout/buyout.

> Indeed. Though personally I feel perhaps Boeing should be left to fail, I'm considering going long if the stock slides further in the short term because I anticipate some form of bailout/buyout. I don't want to see it wind down as a going concern, but I wouldn't mind a bankruptcy and seeing the executives and board of directors fired with their compensation clawed back.

It's unbelievable that the CEO still has his job.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#150

Post by Xixi » Tue, Dec 17, 2019, 1:58 AM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #55

keyle wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"too big to fail" they said. "whatever it takes they will fix it". I'm personally glad this model is getting shelved. You'd just have a bad taste flying in one of those regardless of tweaked the design is or how good the software is going to be. I'm also glad this is happening because it's a win for humanity and a loss for bureaucracy. I have full confidence that the next model will be rock solid and much better over…

The next model is 10 years and north of a billion dollars away.

A billion dollar would be dirt cheap for a clean sheet design. The MAX program (including its engine) is estimated at $2B-3B. For a clean sheet successor a safe assumption would be 7 to 8 years to EIS and $15B in investment.