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Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

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51–60 of 273 posts

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#51
post #40

I was looking into API to make an app for avoiding this plane, then I thought maybe I should not upset those who can kill hundreds of people and expect to get away with it. I am not a nervous flyer, I even used to do paragliding but I am pretty determined to wait few years before flying on one of those. One thing I learned about paragliding was that you must trust your equipment or don’t fly.

Surely a 737 Max is orders of magnitude safer than a paraglider...

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#52
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are suspending production until the grounding is lifted. Not killing off the product. They will of course not be paying the tens of thousands of workers that work on that product while production is suspended.

No layoffs according to CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/boeing-will-suspend-737-max-...

No layoffs at Boeing because of IAM, but you can bet when Boeing stops placing orders from their supplier network, people are going to be laid off.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#54
post #51
post #40

I was looking into API to make an app for avoiding this plane, then I thought maybe I should not upset those who can kill hundreds of people and expect to get away with it. I am not a nervous flyer, I even used to do paragliding but I am pretty determined to wait few years before flying on one of those. One thing I learned about paragliding was that you must trust your equipment or don’t fly.

Surely a 737 Max is orders of magnitude safer than a paraglider...

The performance and safety certification of the gliders seem more trustworthy than FAA and Boeing at this point. Also it is expected to get trained for the failure modes of the wing(unlike with the 737 max, apparently). Not a dangerous sport if you don’t take risks and have proper equipment.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#55
post #44
post #2

A lot of people thought this couldn’t happen. Difficult to overstate the enormity of this to the industry.

"too big to fail" they said. "whatever it takes they will fix it". I'm personally glad this model is getting shelved. You'd just have a bad taste flying in one of those regardless of tweaked the design is or how good the software is going to be. I'm also glad this is happening because it's a win for humanity and a loss for bureaucracy. I have full confidence that the next model will be rock solid and much better over…

The next model is 10 years and north of a billion dollars away.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#56

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

Boeing is one of the pillars of the American economy and the market as well. Dumping the stock will hurt pretty much every fund that invested on it, plus Dow will plunge just because of this one stock if it's getting dumped. Boeing, as well as many other firms, are just too big to fail suddenly.

> too big to fail suddenly

Also known as "a systemic risk".

This is the downside of allowing the concentration of economic power in too few hands. It's like other large scale systems. Yes there's a lot of redundancy; but that redundancy serves a purpose.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#57

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

The market assumes that Boeing is too big to fail and largely ignores this news. I made quite a lot on the short term BA calls after the Ethiopian disaster. Long term, the crony consolidation of Boeing, Lockheed and Douglas commercial airplanes will probably greatly diminish the US market share in lieu of the new East Asian competition. But unfortunately no effective long-term short instruments exist (with a time horizon of 5-10 years). I think if they existed, they would have dampened the stock market bubbles.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#58

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

> lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground Legally, everyone is indemnified up the wazoo. Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. Not only do they lose the planes on order. They also lose their service and replacement-parts provider. The survivors would, in the medium-term, face an Airbus monopoly and, in the long-term, a Chinese-European duo…

But the airlines know that Boeing will never go under because the US government would (justifiably) never let that happen for strategic reasons.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#59

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

Boeing is sitting on a big giant huge bucket of assets. In the long term, this is a blip.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ban the aircraft. Criminally charge everyone involved in suppressing it's serious issues and forcing it through approval. Figure out how their processes become vulnerable to corruption and attempt to change them. The problem is of course the FAA doesn't want to hurt Boeing or the industry over this. But that strongly conflicts with their job. The hope at this point seems to be to drag it out until people forget.

> Ban the aircraft. Criminally charge everyone involved in suppressing it's serious issues and forcing it through approval. That's going a bit too far. Banning MCAS and requiring pilots to undergo MAX-specific training and certification seems more reasonable (and less wasteful) response to the issues. I would support criminal charges against the chief decision-makers that led Boeing into this mess, going all the way…

The 737 Max is doomed without the MCAS, the entire reason it exists is to keep the same type rating the same to keep pilots from needing to re-certify.

Airlines will have serious reason to consider other manufacturers if they can’t just throw pilots behind the stick with minimal training.

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