Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release • Hacker News Board

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#141

Post by theseadroid » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:10 AM UTC

abtinf wrote: post #135

RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/

>The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#142

Post by lisper » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:23 AM UTC

riffic wrote: post #117

lisper wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on what you consider catastrophic. 5-8C means you lose both the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, so you get 60m (200 ft) sea-level rise, so you totally lose all the coastal cities, and the current round of civilization is almost certainly done for. But homo sapiens will probably survive, and so civilization will probably eventually be rebuilt. It won't be the end of life on earth under any circumstances. Act…

But homo sapiens will probably survive, and so civilization will probably eventually be rebuilt This is a very arrogant assumption. Our species is one component of a little-understood web of interconnected dependencies. Just because humans are slightly more clever than past dominant species doesn't make us any less extinction-proof.

I'm guess you meant that cleverness doesn't make us any more extinction-proof. But actually it does. Cleverness is a huge advantage in the survival game.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#143

Post by lisper » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:24 AM UTC

shripadk wrote: post #127

lisper wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on what you consider catastrophic. 5-8C means you lose both the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, so you get 60m (200 ft) sea-level rise, so you totally lose all the coastal cities, and the current round of civilization is almost certainly done for. But homo sapiens will probably survive, and so civilization will probably eventually be rebuilt. It won't be the end of life on earth under any circumstances. Act…

> Actually, the biggest danger is that political instability brought on by climate change will lead to nuclear war Can you please elaborate on this point?

Elaborate how?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#144

Post by peteretep » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:30 AM UTC

sien wrote: post #125

peteretep wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Geo-engineering projects could not > come too soon And also, treating climate-change deniers like a cross between holocaust deniers and flat-earthers can't come soon enough.

So about 50% of US citizens you would treat like holocaust deniers/flat-earthers? http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/10/04/public-views-on-climat...

Yes. I consider the view both offensive and dangerous.

Further, unless you're a climate-change scientist, holding anything other than the 97% consensus view among climate-change scientists is willful ignorance, usually along partisan lines.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#145

Post by dleslie » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:47 AM UTC

brokenmasonjars wrote: post #132

dleslie wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, absolutely.

This would only allow them to win more elections and retain power for longer. Instead include them in discussions; try to socialize them. Don't talk down to them as they will move away from the discussion and purposefully remain ignorant and vote on such feelings of wrong and vengeance that emerges from ridiculing them. Have we learned nothing from Trump's victory? If so, get ready for two terms.

I'm not American; I have been embittered by the influence the USA has on our world and the relative lack of agency in influencing American actions that the rest of the world exhibits.

I'm ready for another two terms; from the outside looking in I expected continuance of the bombs dropping, the climate talks to continue to end in toothless agreements, the off-shoring of abysmal labour conditions to continue unabated, and so forth, regardless of whether your executive wore red or blue.

Please give me reason for hope, because we need it.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#146

Post by RandyRanderson » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 7:00 AM UTC

abtinf wrote: post #135

RandyRanderson wrote: post #133

Sea level rise is neither the largest nor most immediate threat of climate change. Water happens to have one of the highest, and I would argue, the most important thermal capacity of all the compounds we're likely to come into contact with daily. Water has about 5-10x the heat capacity of most common things and so heating up the all the oceans by say 2 degs average is an ENORMOUS amount of energy. Why is this importa…

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

As you likely know, if you have any insurance and have looked into your coverage in any depth, insurance covers a lot less than one expects. Also when an insured event happens typically the insurer will amend the policy (without changing the premiums, of course) to exclude that eventuality (also typically excluding your "neighbours" as well). Further insurers will typically require say homeowners in a flood-prone zone to take additional precautions periodically. So far example maintaining barrier walls, etc.

Therefore insurance premiums or losses may be difficult to compare year to year. Certainly insurances companies have factored global warming into their models and are changing their rates accordingly. To not do so would be grounds for shareholder lawsuits I should think.

There are as many climate deniers in insurance companies as there are atheists in foxholes. :>

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#147

Post by Gatsky » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 7:10 AM UTC

lend000 wrote: post #41

Geo-engineering projects could not come too soon. Because of how grand they are in scale, they don't seem to get much attention from the mainstream scientific community, but it seems feasible technologically (albeit expensive) to put forth major projects to reflect sunlight over deserts and capture significant amounts of carbon from power plants and oceans, amongst numerous other creative approaches. https://en.wikip…

Geo-engineering is a precarious idea. It requires global collaboration, and investment of huge resources. As the climate changes, and life becomes more difficult, the likelihood of global collaboration and large investment arguably decreases rather than the other way round.

Ideally, we need a climate change solution that can be enacted in a decentralised fashion by large numbers of motivated people without much need for government intervention.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#148

Post by parhurs » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 7:23 AM UTC

lisper wrote: post #142

riffic wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But homo sapiens will probably survive, and so civilization will probably eventually be rebuilt This is a very arrogant assumption. Our species is one component of a little-understood web of interconnected dependencies. Just because humans are slightly more clever than past dominant species doesn't make us any less extinction-proof.

I'm guess you meant that cleverness doesn't make us any more extinction-proof. But actually it does. Cleverness is a huge advantage in the survival game.

The relation might not be linear though.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#149

Post by Udik » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 7:26 AM UTC

theseadroid wrote: post #141

abtinf wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ >The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues…

Bad information. From the noaa website [0], a more scientific assessment reports:

"It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity."

So no detectable increase (even statistically, which I consider to be a much weaker requirement than actual subjective experience).

[0] https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#150

Post by Udik » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 7:36 AM UTC

aaron-lebo wrote: post #138

abtinf wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You claim that the scenario you describe is happening "NOW". Could you provide a citation for that claim? Or even better, are people betting money that it is true, as might be represented with a greater-than-inflation rise in premiums for flood insurance, home owners insurance, or umbrella insurance in the affected geographies?

Hurricanes? New Orleans will never recover. That same season saw a couple other storms that were just as strong but luckily missed worst case scenarios. I wouldn't be shocked if cat five hurricanes became pretty common in a couple of decades due to warmer waters, and one or two of those a year would devastate coastal economies. But I'm not a weatherman...

And these statements are based on what? There have been some major earthquakes around the world in the last 20 years, are they also caused by global warming? Do you project an increase in them in the next 20 years?

Here's a page with good, updated information about global warming and hurricanes: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/