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Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

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Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#41

Post by lend000 »

Geo-engineering projects could not come too soon.

Because of how grand they are in scale, they don't seem to get much attention from the mainstream scientific community, but it seems feasible technologically (albeit expensive) to put forth major projects to reflect sunlight over deserts and capture significant amounts of carbon from power plants and oceans, amongst numerous other creative approaches.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering#Proposed_s...

There was an article on HN recently about a new material that is excellent for cooling due to radiating energy primarily in the long-wavelength infrared spectrum. Just another option, just a matter of mass production and adoption.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#42

Post by mirimir »

georgemcbay wrote: post #26
ced wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Even assuming that the runaway is unstoppable, that's a fixed quantity. The final outcome will be runaway CO2 + everyone else's CO2 + our CO2 and we've got control over one of these terms.

which term do "we" have control of exactly? also... define "we"? Speaking for myself, I live in a country in which my current elected leader claims that CO2-related climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese and who plans (essentially politically unopposed, at least for the next 2-4 years) to undo what little protection prior administrations have put into place to try to help. This does not give me a feeling…

It seems pretty clear that nobody is controlling any of it very well. And regarding the Chinese, I do appreciate the justice in cutting some GCC slack for less-industrialized nations. But since China has become such an effective economic competitor, that slack has become very spinnable.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#43

Post by idoh »

AaronFriel wrote: post #28

As no one has mentioned it in the comments, the belief that this is concerning is related to the "Clathrate gun hypothesis"[1]. Essentially, low temperatures have allowed vast quantities of methane and carbon dioxide containing compounds to accumulate for millennia. If the temperatures rise above a critical threshold, a positive feedback loop would exist between temperatures and global warming. Positive feedback loop…

The feedback loop peaks out at a global temperature increase of 5-8 degrees celsius, if the models and past events are to be believed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maxim...

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#44

Post by josho »

dmix wrote: post #40
AaronFriel wrote: post #28

As no one has mentioned it in the comments, the belief that this is concerning is related to the "Clathrate gun hypothesis"[1]. Essentially, low temperatures have allowed vast quantities of methane and carbon dioxide containing compounds to accumulate for millennia. If the temperatures rise above a critical threshold, a positive feedback loop would exist between temperatures and global warming. Positive feedback loop…

Interesting. Can anyone recommend a book that gives a good overview of current climate science? And what hypothetical scenarios may exist in the future?

An excellent introductory book is Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen. It speaks to the science and directly addresses the common objections that deniers bring up.

What surprised me is that the science comes at this from multiple angles, so even if someone were to dispute the computer models, then we have other lines of science that still back the theories, e.g. looking at the environment over geologic time scales where we can see what the climate was like under certain CO2 levels.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#45

Post by vvanders »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #3
josho wrote: post #2

I remember reading (probably about 2 decades ago) that if we were to loose the permafrost the resulting release of CO2 would lead to runaway warming. I haven't read that concern recently, so I'm hopeful that scientists no longer feel that way, but it is alarming to see this day has come.

Last I heard, scientists still feel that way, but they've gotten burned-out on trying to explain to the public exactly how doomed we actually are.

s3e3 of The Newsroom captured this brilliantly.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#46

Post by hackuser »

tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I heard, scientists still feel that way, but they've gotten burned-out on trying to explain to the public exactly how doomed we actually are.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

> the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now

My impression is that this is the latest fallback position intended to stop/delay us from acting (I don't know that the parent commenter intends it that way; this isn't a criticism of them). In rough order:

1) There is no global warming

2) There is global warming, but it's not caused by humans

3) It's caused by humans but there is nothing we can do about it.

4) We can do something about it, but it's too expensive to be worthwhile.

5) It's cost-effective (because the cost of doing nothing is so high), but it's too late to act.

6) ? Any predictions for the next fallback argument?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#47

Post by epistasis »

protomyth wrote: post #33
tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

Ok, then is there any proposed plan to remove the excess CO2 from the air and oceans?

I'd love to hear people's proposals for this. There's of course natural methods such as reforestation and soil building, but I have a feeling that we'll want to augment that with more synthetic means.

Carbon chains, or in the simplest case, methane, are expensive to produce, as one might expect. By far it's better to never have burned that fossil fuel than to try to reclaim it from the atmosphere or ocean. Setting a $80/ton CO2 carbon tax (Exxon's internal estimate for new project planning) or even a $40/ton CO2 carbon tax (Shell's internal estimate for new project planning) is an obvious step. When even the fossil fuel companies are using this tax level in their internal estimates, it's just stupid that our government and political leaders aren't pushing for that or double or triple it.

My personal hope is that by 2040 we will have lots of excess electricity from solar and wind because we overprovision them. And we'll overprovision them because they will be the cheapest electricity, and we need enough of them such that at their low point of output they still meet our needs. In that case it seems that we may have cheap intermittent electricity. At that point we can start making hydrogen, then combining it with CO2, to start getting rid of greenhouse gases.

Some people think that we'll be able to take methane (natural gas) and make hydrogen and precipitate out the carbon as graphite. that's probably the easiest form of carbon to dispose of, whereas a liquid like methanol or even diesel is going to pose lots of problems.

It seems that CO2 in the oceans is going to be a bit more easy to remove than atmospheric CO2. So it seems that there are all sorts of chemistries that would be useful for that.

But still, we need a carbon tax to fund such carbon sequestration activities. Without a market mechanism, there's not going to be much investment. We need to both do research, then develop them into large industries really quickly.

Carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax. Don't vote for anybody or any party that doesn't advocate for it. This is the biggest single issue for our children and their economy.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#48

Post by IAmGraydon »

Spooky23 wrote: post #13
chinathrow wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How fast would the runaway happen?

I'd argue that it's happening now. On February 17, it was 81F in my back porch in Albany, NY. That is an all time record. Right now, at 6PM EST, its 64F. It hasn't been below 20 in a week. Our average high is about 28F. We've had fewer snow events in the last 5 years than we had in any year in the 90s. The climate has already changed.

Sorry...that's not what global warming does.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#49

Post by ceejayoz »

hackuser wrote: post #46
tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

> the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now My impression is that this is the latest fallback position intended to stop/delay us from acting (I don't know that the parent commenter intends it that way; this isn't a criticism of them). In rough order: 1) There is no global warming 2) There is global warming, but it's not caus…

My prediction is "we're encouraging the development of new waterfront properties".

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#50

Post by Spooky23 »

hackuser wrote: post #46
tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

> the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now My impression is that this is the latest fallback position intended to stop/delay us from acting (I don't know that the parent commenter intends it that way; this isn't a criticism of them). In rough order: 1) There is no global warming 2) There is global warming, but it's not caus…

7) Fake news. NOAA was faking the data, and things are fixed now. New data is great, but we don't release it.
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