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Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

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Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#31

Post by taberiand »

btilly wrote: post #27
taberiand wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I joke this is the real reason Elon Musk is digging tunnels and preparing to live in a Mars-like environment...

Why do you think that this is a joke? Elon has stated in all seriousness that he personally puts global warming at above a 1% chance of being a species-threatening event for us, and that we need to become a multi-planetary species to reduce the odds of extinction. He doesn't think that wiping out our species is a likely or even very probable. Just high enough that there is no better way that he can spend his time tha…

Because I don't really want to believe it's going to get that bad - I certainly won't be getting a place in the vaults.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#32

Post by mirimir »

crpatino wrote: post #11
tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

I don't know if you are trolling, but I will bite. You know the Netherlands will be literally underwater within this century, don't you?

Actually, much of the Netherlands is already "literally underwater", and most of it would be flooded by storm surges. It's just that there's a highly layered defense of dikes, dams and pumping stations. Next time in Amsterdam, check out the display at city hall.

Since the disastrous 1953 flood, they've installed humongous valves at the mouths of all estuaries (Delta Works). If sea level increases more than a meter or so, they'll need to modify it.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#33

Post by protomyth »

tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I heard, scientists still feel that way, but they've gotten burned-out on trying to explain to the public exactly how doomed we actually are.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

Ok, then is there any proposed plan to remove the excess CO2 from the air and oceans?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#34

Post by kaybe »

btilly wrote: post #27
taberiand wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I joke this is the real reason Elon Musk is digging tunnels and preparing to live in a Mars-like environment...

Why do you think that this is a joke? Elon has stated in all seriousness that he personally puts global warming at above a 1% chance of being a species-threatening event for us, and that we need to become a multi-planetary species to reduce the odds of extinction. He doesn't think that wiping out our species is a likely or even very probable. Just high enough that there is no better way that he can spend his time tha…

The thing is, even Earth at its worst is still by far the most habitable planet in the system.

The biggest issue we have with climate change is that we and the biosphere are set up for it to be this way, and adaption is slow. We might have to move many cities and the agriculture, and somehow manage with a biosphere that takes many generations to adapt.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#35

Post by maxerickson »

Spooky23 wrote: post #13
chinathrow wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How fast would the runaway happen?

I'd argue that it's happening now. On February 17, it was 81F in my back porch in Albany, NY. That is an all time record. Right now, at 6PM EST, its 64F. It hasn't been below 20 in a week. Our average high is about 28F. We've had fewer snow events in the last 5 years than we had in any year in the 90s. The climate has already changed.

It's been warm here in Michigan also, but there were also record lows just 2 years ago, and while this year as been extraordinary, there are years in the late 1800s with big melt ups and so on.

Which I'm just saying that it is difficult to take a season of weather and be sure it fits into a broader context. I'm arguing against drawing conclusions from short periods of observation.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#36

Post by r00fus »

lacampbell wrote: post #19

My one crumb of comfort will be seeing the expensive coastal houses of property investors be destroyed. I really should get some land high above sea level while it's still cheap and undesirable.

hah, you jest. The rich will simply appeal to local, state and federal levels to ensure backstopping of any property damage reinsurance claims for "acts of nature".

You and I will foot their bill because they have more representation than we do.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#37

Post by mirimir »

M_Grey wrote: post #24
chc wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parent specifically asked about "the runaway," not merely climate change. The term "runaway" refers to a feedback effect, so that climate change breeds more climate change rather than relying on our carbon emissions to fuel it.

"Now" still seems like a very good answer. I doubt that if we stopped emissions today, we'd see any positive changes for decades, and that's if we're very very lucky.

Yeah, "now" seems a good answer. A couple decades ago, I would have said "no clue, really". But now, it seems pretty clear.

And yes, even without positive feedback, it would take several decades for forcing to relax after carbon emissions ceased. Which is very unlikely.

So I really do think that it's time to consider active mitigation. But I'm not even very optimistic about that, given the likely positive feedbacks. Requisite mitigation requirements would also be going exponential. And where will the energy for that come from?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#38

Post by mbroncano »

tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I heard, scientists still feel that way, but they've gotten burned-out on trying to explain to the public exactly how doomed we actually are.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

Although I'm not Dutch I profess a lot of affection to the Netherlands and I lived there for a bunch of years.

Having said that, it is IMHO possibly the worse place to be in case of a massive increase in the sea level. My house in Den Haag is 10ft below the sea level, maybe 5 miles away from the sea.

That's scary no matter how you put it, despite the best engineering effort from my friends at Rijkswaterstaat.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#39

Post by mbroncano »

tornadoboy55 wrote: post #22
crpatino wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if you are trolling, but I will bite. You know the Netherlands will be literally underwater within this century, don't you?

We've been largely winning against the sea since 1500, and that's with windmills and wheelbarrels of mud. Look up the Afsluitdijk. Or the Deltawerken. Our combined 'water defense works' are considered one of the modern wonders of the world. The Dutch will never surrender to the sea. Even if the rest of the globe will experience some catastrophic flood, the Dutch will figure out how to stave it off.

Famous last words!

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#40

Post by dmix »

AaronFriel wrote: post #28

As no one has mentioned it in the comments, the belief that this is concerning is related to the "Clathrate gun hypothesis"[1]. Essentially, low temperatures have allowed vast quantities of methane and carbon dioxide containing compounds to accumulate for millennia. If the temperatures rise above a critical threshold, a positive feedback loop would exist between temperatures and global warming. Positive feedback loop…

Interesting. Can anyone recommend a book that gives a good overview of current climate science? And what hypothetical scenarios may exist in the future?
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