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Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

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Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#11

Post by crpatino »

tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I heard, scientists still feel that way, but they've gotten burned-out on trying to explain to the public exactly how doomed we actually are.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

I don't know if you are trolling, but I will bite.

You know the Netherlands will be literally underwater within this century, don't you?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#12

Post by Diederich »

josho wrote: post #2

I remember reading (probably about 2 decades ago) that if we were to loose the permafrost the resulting release of CO2 would lead to runaway warming. I haven't read that concern recently, so I'm hopeful that scientists no longer feel that way, but it is alarming to see this day has come.

http://www.newsweek.com/2016/06/10/permafrost-greenhouse-gas...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_feedback

'runaway' is hard to predict, perhaps even hard to define, but we're getting a much better handle on climate change feedback mechanisms.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#13

Post by Spooky23 »

chinathrow wrote: post #5
kaybe wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we still feel that way. It's not like we can do anything though.

How fast would the runaway happen?

I'd argue that it's happening now. On February 17, it was 81F in my back porch in Albany, NY. That is an all time record.

Right now, at 6PM EST, its 64F. It hasn't been below 20 in a week. Our average high is about 28F. We've had fewer snow events in the last 5 years than we had in any year in the 90s.

The climate has already changed.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#14

Post by Avalaxy »

crpatino wrote: post #11
tornadoboy55 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the common sentiment is 'the best time to take action was 40 years ago. The absolute limit was 20 years ago. There's no stopping it now, even if we reduce our emissions to zero . The latent emissions in the atmosphere will already bone us. I'm glad I live in the Netherlands. We're a very rich country, and we have been battling water for more than a thousand years as a people. Places like Bangladesh will be comp…

I don't know if you are trolling, but I will bite. You know the Netherlands will be literally underwater within this century, don't you?

Not it won't. Why do you think differently?

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#15

Post by iaw »

josho wrote: post #2

I remember reading (probably about 2 decades ago) that if we were to loose the permafrost the resulting release of CO2 would lead to runaway warming. I haven't read that concern recently, so I'm hopeful that scientists no longer feel that way, but it is alarming to see this day has come.

> I haven't read that concern recently, so I'm hopeful that scientists no longer feel that way, but it is alarming to see this day has come.

As others have said, this only became more proven. Even with a non-linearity at out-of-observation CO2 levels that causes temperatures to drop the resulting weather patterns will be... unpleasant.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#18

Post by chc »

Spooky23 wrote: post #13
chinathrow wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How fast would the runaway happen?

I'd argue that it's happening now. On February 17, it was 81F in my back porch in Albany, NY. That is an all time record. Right now, at 6PM EST, its 64F. It hasn't been below 20 in a week. Our average high is about 28F. We've had fewer snow events in the last 5 years than we had in any year in the 90s. The climate has already changed.

The parent specifically asked about "the runaway," not merely climate change. The term "runaway" refers to a feedback effect, so that climate change breeds more climate change rather than relying on our carbon emissions to fuel it.

Re: Massive permafrost thaw documented in Canada, portending huge carbon release

#20

Post by blisterpeanuts »

I'm curious how much this phenomenon might affect CO2 levels compared to the deforestation of the Amazon, which I have read in the past is the single most disastrous human action when it comes to climate. The Amazon forest is vast and produces a significant percentage of the world's oxygen. The balance we have seen the past few thousand years is being upset not only by industrial pollution but by depriving the world of its CO2-to-O2 conversion machinery in Amazon as well as the ocean algae. A reduction in algae, which seems to be happening and is possibly due to pollution, will be catastrophic. There is also the methane deposits on the ocean floor that are being released because of increased acidity caused by CO2. This is creating a deadly cycle that may be accelerating the greenhouse effect.

I doubt that there's anything we humans can do at this point other than preserve and restore the Amazon, stop polluting as much as possible, and pray.

Earth by David Brin is a very good novel that describes a grim future some 40 years hence. It goes off into pure sci-fi regarding black holes bouncing around the earth's core, but the predictions in the novel seem pretty realistic. He speculates that as the Northern Territories and the Siberian tundra thaw, people will move north and build towns to get away from the increasingly tropical conditions in previously moderate latitudes.

Something not touched upon in that novel but which we are seeing today is the spread of tropical diseases like zika into new areas. This is one of the scariest prospects, actually; the next great plague will probably come from a previously unknown tropical virus or bacterium.

I hope the Mars colonization project proceeds apace.

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