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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

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131–140 of 412 posts

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"unless you're content with producing low quality work." - With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality. As a fully autonomous developer, it is a disaster.

> With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality This just reads like another variation of “it’s the user not the tool,” which is just endless runway for always blaming people and never acknowledging the limitations of LLM’s. I’d be curious to hear how the recipients of your work enabled by the “productivity multiplier” feel about the quality.

You can't play an entire orchestra's sheet music on a single guitar either, but your playing ability still matters a lot.

I would say that as of July 2026, with the right scaffolding, you can get reasonably good output out of a LLM, or better a combination of LLMs. For example, it pays off to prepare an implementation plan with one LLM and then let another LLM check it for flaws, then again. After several iterations like this, you will have a plan better than whatever you could come up with yourself.

It often is the user and not the tool. LLMs are complicated, have nontrivial failure modes, and the user needs to steer them carefully. They might be the most complicated tools on the planet right now.

Anecdotally, the recipients of my work have become visibly more happy in the last months. LLMs are great at diagnosing subtle problems which tend to appear at Friday night only, and this is the sort of problem that bugs actual people the most.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#132

Recently poked around the job market to see what I qualify for in this day and age. Working as a solo builder in my org I would say that I have done enough in the last 18 months to consider myself “with it”. What I found was pretty brutal. Companies asking for 4 years of agentic AI experience… pardon? Then it hit me. Oh they are all making shit up now and have no bar that anyone can hit because they are believing in…

If you were screwing around with Auto-GPT in 2023, you'll hit four years of "agentic" experience next year.

Of course, there's not much overlap between that and the way it works now. But then again, I have the same feeling about last year and this year... (e.g. Anthropic just deleted almost their entire system prompt because the models have common sense now.)

That being said, I think there's still value, even today, in playing around with the older models from time the time. (Or with very small recent models, which have similar limitations.)

Some of the habits that teaches you — i.e. careful context management and well crafted examples — do translate well to the modern environment, and give you performance gains and cost savings even with newer models. (In a word, whenever possible, show, don't tell.)

I also lament the loss of the base/text models, which were extraordinarily interesting and fun to play with. But that's a separate discussion :)

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#133
post #95
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

I guess it's important who one hears this from. I just spoke to a fried who is a headhunter and who's been trying to automate his processes for a while (he likes to fiddle and certainly has skills, but he's not an engineer). He kept trying, but it just wasn't good enough. Now he said with GPT Work and Sol, it worked, but the key point is: all of it suddenly worked. The problem was one of reliability, of handling edge…

You heard it from someone with no experience developing software. A lot of AI hype comes from that, even (or especially) from people in the actual business of developing software - a surprising amount of managers and adjacent or supporting roles in the field actually have very little clue about software development.

It's cool that 'regular' people can now create solutions to many small problems, and automate stuff - genuinely a step forward. Like Excel, only vastly better. But for bigger projects, real software engineers know that what LLMs do today is only a tiny part of development. And it solves it in a way that might well make the rest of the lifecycle a lot harder. It's like that saying about tools that make easy things easier and hard things impossible.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#134
post #27
post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

I’ve been feeling gaslit about this too. Getting major “we’re still early!” crypto bro vibes from this constant goalpost moving.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just in case, because a lot of people don't know this... When a company lists job requirements they aren't really requirements. Don't skip a job because it says you need X years of Y but you only have X-1. They're basically writing down a wish list. They don't expect to get it or necessarily even care that much about some of the points. Also "X years of experience" isn't really asking for literal years. It's a proxy…

yeah the lead lecturer on my data engineering masters once told us about a job posting he saw asking for 8 years of Hadoop experience, even though Hadoop had only been publicly available for 5 years at the time. it's often HR / hiring managers throwing some numbers into a text document based on what they've heard is important for the role, not what you'll actually need for the job. similarly, something like "has prev…

If a tech company can't even do basic math — or rather, openly cares so little about accuracy — does that sound like a place you would want to work though?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#136
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah the lead lecturer on my data engineering masters once told us about a job posting he saw asking for 8 years of Hadoop experience, even though Hadoop had only been publicly available for 5 years at the time. it's often HR / hiring managers throwing some numbers into a text document based on what they've heard is important for the role, not what you'll actually need for the job. similarly, something like "has prev…

If a tech company can't even do basic math — or rather, openly cares so little about accuracy — does that sound like a place you would want to work though?

this sort of thing happens more often at larger non-tech enterprises, or places that have a type of "software team" that is not the main focus of the org.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#137
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

It seems to be true this time though; I have observed it myself and heard it from several experienced developers I personally know and respect. It feels like some threshold was crossed with Opus 4.5 and Gpt 5.3, where the models are now able to reliably solve certain classes of problems that were previously unreliable. Time will tell of course, and it’s early, but inflection points do exist with progress.

If it's so evident, why can't someone prove it with something more than "it seems better and everyone agrees"?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#138
post #53
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

Nobody was saying coding agents started working in 2023 or 2024, because the category was defined by Claude Code which was first released in February 2025.

I would say that Aider is what defined coding agents. That was at least multiple months before Claude code. I remember seeing a coworker use aider for a hackathon project Adeline November-December 2024 , and it was already decent and pretty close to the DX we consider coding agents to have

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#139
post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

The true scottsman period only started, everything before was just scotty junior.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#140
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

I’ve been feeling gaslit about this too. Getting major “we’re still early!” crypto bro vibes from this constant goalpost moving.

The „you will be left behind if you don’t fully embrace the whole thing right now“ is a 1:1 match with cryptocurrency hype
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