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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#51

Post by [deleted] »

overgard wrote: post #38
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

Anecdotally, I (along with the rest of my team) got laid off from a big tech company at the end of January. The stated reason was "AI", although I think as we all know the real reason was "we overhired in 2022". I managed to get a job by April without putting in a lot of work, though (mostly just listened to recruiters until something hit my fancy). My work experience is good, but I don't know if it's so good that I…

[deleted]

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#52

Post by jdlshore »

raincole wrote: post #6
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

Any research on the impact of AI would have been lagging indicators. It's not the researchers' fault[0], but the nature of a field moving at neck breaking speed. Remember there was a paper saying programmers were 20% slower with AI? [0]: well...

That early 2025 METR study was particularly interesting because participants self-evaluated themselves as 20% faster, but the measurements showed they were actually 19% slower.

All the reports of productivity since then are self-reported, or using questionable measures such as SLOC and PRs, so it’s reasonable to say that productivity improvements are still unknown.

Unfortunately, METR hasn’t been able to replicate the study because they couldn’t find enough willing participants.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#53

Post by simonw »

ballsac wrote: post #27
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

Nobody was saying coding agents started working in 2023 or 2024, because the category was defined by Claude Code which was first released in February 2025.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#54

Post by usef- »

nicce wrote: post #16
usef- wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or the amount of software increases tremendously

Seems like all companies think that their products are good enough and can’t offer more, as they always want to remove people instead of offering better and bigger products.

I don't think most of the layoffs that have happened so far are about present-day AI. It's often an easy excuse though.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#55

Post by simonw »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #47
cowanon77 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to be true this time though; I have observed it myself and heard it from several experienced developers I personally know and respect. It feels like some threshold was crossed with Opus 4.5 and Gpt 5.3, where the models are now able to reliably solve certain classes of problems that were previously unreliable. Time will tell of course, and it’s early, but inflection points do exist with progress.

I wonder how much of it is real and how much of it is people just being worn down by the hype to the point they can't fight it anymore Very smart people aren't immune to being worn down over time

I really don't think that's how it works. Smart, experienced developers who thought coding agents were junk for most of 2025 and think they're useful now in 2026 are not saying that because they got "worn down over time".

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#56

Post by exabrial »

Prior to the weaving loom and sewing machines, a factory might be able to make like 20 t-shirts a day with 50 workers. After mass production, factories generally employ the same amount of workers, but people aren't hand-sewing things. Instead roughly 50 people are producing thousands of tshirts a day leveraging giant machines.

Most of HN recognized the "We're firing people because AI makes people efficient" as one of the stupidest sales pitches ever and the CEOs that fell for it are just poorly ran companies that outed themselves.

AI is just another cycle in technology that is genuinely useful. The companies that are going to jump the gap are those that are hiring to use this new skill. If 10 workers pre-AI yields you 10x, and post AI yields you 100x, you don't cut down to 1 worker so you can keep delivering 10x. You invest, ruthlessly train, hire, and surge forward and leave your competition in the dust.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#57

Post by SpaceNoodled »

simonw wrote: post #55
bluefirebrand wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much of it is real and how much of it is people just being worn down by the hype to the point they can't fight it anymore Very smart people aren't immune to being worn down over time

I really don't think that's how it works. Smart, experienced developers who thought coding agents were junk for most of 2025 and think they're useful now in 2026 are not saying that because they got "worn down over time".

As a smart, experienced developer who's getting worn down over time, I disagree.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#58

Post by simonw »

ffsm8 wrote: post #48
throwaway7783 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"unless you're content with producing low quality work." - With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality. As a fully autonomous developer, it is a disaster.

[flagged]

I produce code that is significantly higher quality with the assistance of coding agents, because I no longer succumb to the temptation to cut corners due to lack of time.

One example: everything I do is properly tested and documented now, even the most trivial of changes. Previously I would have weighed those tradeoffs and sometimes decided not to bother with the tests because they weren't worth the time.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#59

Post by [deleted] »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #46
throwaway7783 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"unless you're content with producing low quality work." - With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality. As a fully autonomous developer, it is a disaster.

> With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality This just reads like another variation of “it’s the user not the tool,” which is just endless runway for always blaming people and never acknowledging the limitations of LLM’s. I’d be curious to hear how the recipients of your work enabled by the “productivity multiplier” feel about the quality.

[deleted]

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#60

Post by simonw »

Avicebron wrote: post #34
simonw wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally hope that AI continues not to result in a noticeable negative impact on employment and that pandemic over-hiring turns out to be the major factor for all of the layoffs. I'm nervous that the studies which show that so far don't seem to be taking the 2026 improvements in coding and general agents into account.

Is this genuine concern or is it stealth-marketing? It's hard to tell when someone is so publicly benefiting off the hype.

What the heck would I be "stealth-marketing" here?

It's genuine concern. I do not want to live in a dystopia where AI results in mass unemployment. That would suck, even for the people who manage to stay employed.

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