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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

siepr.stanford.edu

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#41

Post by overgard »

fathermarz wrote: post #4

Recently poked around the job market to see what I qualify for in this day and age. Working as a solo builder in my org I would say that I have done enough in the last 18 months to consider myself “with it”. What I found was pretty brutal. Companies asking for 4 years of agentic AI experience… pardon? Then it hit me. Oh they are all making shit up now and have no bar that anyone can hit because they are believing in…

Personally, I would avoid "ai-native" companies like the plague; they seem like places full of burnout and delusional expectations.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#42

Post by overgard »

01100011 wrote: post #8

I don't feel like reading an article that will probably be out of date in 6 months, but from what I've seen, if agents keep improving at this rate, 80% of SWEs are going to be looking for new careers in 5 years.

If my baby keeps growing at this rate, in 5 years she'll be as tall as the empire state building.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#43

Post by underlipton »

AbsurdCensor wrote: post #5
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

This isn’t the first study showing this though. It’s pretty simple, programmers and IT were severely overhired during the pandemic, there are massive job losses now, and it’s easy to blame AI when in reality there are a lot of economic factors and AI isn’t increasing productivity as much as anyone would think. Maybe the future will change that for very specific things, but I think people should be learning and prepar…

>programmers and IT were severely overhired during the pandemic

1) I hesitate to believe that losses were disproportionately technical roles as opposed to administrative.

2) Over-hired by what metric? It's well known that hiring never fully recovered after the GFC; was the recruitment post-pandemic just bringing us to parity with where we had been 20 years earlier?

Not to say that I disagree with your following point. The AI overspending and the layoff cost-cutting are not in a direct causal relationship; both are rather symptoms of a common corporate pathology.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#44

Post by throwaway27448 »

singpolyma3 wrote: post #28
01100011 wrote: post #8

I don't feel like reading an article that will probably be out of date in 6 months, but from what I've seen, if agents keep improving at this rate, 80% of SWEs are going to be looking for new careers in 5 years.

Or their career will just involve different tools and skills than they previously assumed

Probably both. We were already hitting limits in terms of finding software that could generate returns; without public funding or enormous regulation the possibility of finding new jobs with a degree is lower than it's been in a while.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#45

Post by ofjcihen »

simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

Well, in addition to that you also have to consider that companies are now paying (increased) API pricing. It would be an understatement to say that my clients in the F100 range are skeptical at best regarding the gains they’ve seen compared to the costs.

This has led to many of them instilling dollar limits or demanding proof of increased productivity (not just output) with the implication being if you don’t provide value with it it’s getting taken away.

So that is to say, if they aren’t happy with the price now, how will they feel when it goes up again compared to just keeping a certain headcount?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#46

Post by Forgeties79 »

throwaway7783 wrote: post #40
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, the goalposts just keep shifting. In reality: they still don't work well, unless you're content with producing low quality work.

"unless you're content with producing low quality work." - With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality. As a fully autonomous developer, it is a disaster.

> With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality

This just reads like another variation of “it’s the user not the tool,” which is just endless runway for always blaming people and never acknowledging the limitations of LLM’s.

I’d be curious to hear how the recipients of your work enabled by the “productivity multiplier” feel about the quality.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#47

Post by bluefirebrand »

cowanon77 wrote: post #39
ballsac wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

It seems to be true this time though; I have observed it myself and heard it from several experienced developers I personally know and respect. It feels like some threshold was crossed with Opus 4.5 and Gpt 5.3, where the models are now able to reliably solve certain classes of problems that were previously unreliable. Time will tell of course, and it’s early, but inflection points do exist with progress.

I wonder how much of it is real and how much of it is people just being worn down by the hype to the point they can't fight it anymore

Very smart people aren't immune to being worn down over time

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#48

Post by ffsm8 »

throwaway7783 wrote: post #40
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, the goalposts just keep shifting. In reality: they still don't work well, unless you're content with producing low quality work.

"unless you're content with producing low quality work." - With the right guiding hand, it is a productivity multiplier without compromising quality. As a fully autonomous developer, it is a disaster.

[flagged]

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#50

Post by oceanplexian »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #37
ballsac wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

Yep, the goalposts just keep shifting. In reality: they still don't work well, unless you're content with producing low quality work.

What kind of work are you doing and what do you consider to be quality or not?

Of course don’t let me assume, maybe you have a higher quality disproof for the Jacobian conjecture you could share with the class.

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