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Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

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Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#131

Post by nooron »

outwebyou wrote: post #105
nooron wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has less to do with China's theoretical alignment ("communism") as it does with the challenges to state financial controls, and in turn, China's economic model, that bitcoin poses. Bitcoin is a very useful tool for evading financial and capital controls, which is problematic for an economy with a) rich people trying to cash out and b) a growth model dependent on policies that artificially increase savings rates wh…

the high savings rate in China is a myth from 2004. In 2017, people poured all their savings into their kids/other relatives real estate purchases (which itself is a bubble). And the young people have credit card debts and no savings.

Real estate investments are a store of wealth, ie a savings product. Real estate investments are one of the few vehicles to store wealth other than relatively basic accounts that are available to a broad swath of consumers.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#132

Post by rothbardrand »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #127
rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

I agree with the gist of the argument, but non industrial ( i.e. financial ) value of gold is much less than 8T, more like 1-2 T. So by this calculation max value is about 50k a bitcoin. So, upside of buying now at 3-5k is not as great

I think your numbers are reversed-- look at the PDF at the top of this page: https://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends It appears that Industrial/technology use is around %5, and the rest is used as a store of value. However this is timely demand and it is clearly variable.

What I can't find is the percentage of all above ground gold that is held in vaults & Jewelry vs captured in industrial uses.

That would be a better figure-- because it takes into account the centuries of accumulated financial gold (whereas jewelry and industrial gold is more likely to be recycled over time.)

Also, I would consider jewelry gold to be financial gold as well, because it is really almost the only store of wealth available to people at the lower socioeconomic levels.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#133

Post by Nursie »

rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

A massive assumption followed by a declaration that it's massively undervalued.

Yup, that's it, I'm investing!

>> Bitcoin is the very definition of a disruptive technology that will revolutionize society for the better and hackers are embracing it.

No, it's pretty much the definition of an e-tulip, and today has shown that it can and will be hugely affected by the actions of governments.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#134

Post by Nursie »

rothbardrand wrote: post #122
cm2187 wrote: post #97

Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were using encryption to ensure that no one can create more currencies like a fiat currency. But we can just clone the currency, let's create bitcoin cash! Or let's agree to change the algorithm! Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were meant to be immune from government interference. Wait, China cracking down on bitcoin makes its value plunge! There is only one way to learn disc…

Who is losing money? A year ago BTC was under $600. Today it's over $3,000. Surely a painful lesson for anyone holding for 12 months. Yes, you can fork open source software, but as you see the value doesn't come from the code intrinsically. BCH is at $500, even after pumping and a year long campaign of misinformation. Other alts have to provide compelling value to get a good market price. Nobody ever said cryptocurre…

> BCH is at $500

Yup, a sure sign that something is screwy - let's fork the currency and award ourselves 10-20% extra money overnight!

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#135

Post by SilasX »

rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

>Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success?

And if it steadily goes up, "Deflationary Currencies Can't Work".

And if it stays steady, "The market cap is too low to take on the world's transactions while remaining stable."

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#136

Post by Nursie »

SilasX wrote: post #135
rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

>Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? And if it steadily goes up, "Deflationary Currencies Can't Work". And if it stays steady, "The market cap is too low to take on the worl…

>> And if it steadily goes up, "Deflationary Currencies Can't Work".

Well it's true, the price of BTC rising steadily is not something which refutes that argument, particularly as BTC doesn't seemed to be used much as a currency.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#137

Post by baddox »

random023987 wrote: post #130
rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

> The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? As a modern eTulip bubble, it's a "success" for anyone who has made money speculating. As a replacement for fiat money, it's an absolute disaster as a currency. Volatility and high transaction fees have killed any opportunity Bitcoin may have had to gain traction as a way to pay for anything besides drugs…

Remember though that "replacement for fiat money" isn't the only goal or measure of success for people who like bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#138

Post by danmaz74 »

aecorredor wrote: post #115
danmaz74 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that big miners wouldn't have such a big problem if the exchanges get shut down - as long as they export bitcoins and import dollars or other currencies, buying those in foreign cryptoexchanges, the government should be happy. What the government probably doesn't like is the other way around, when normal people buy BTC with yuan and then sell them abroad, exporting capitals.

"What the government probably doesn't like is the other way around, when normal people buy BTC with yuan and then sell them abroad, exporting capitals." Don't they also get some type of currency back when they do this? which is probably then spent inside China too? I don't see how this would be different from the first scenario. Maybe I'm missing something.

It depends: if their goal is to export capitals, when they get foreign currency by selling the BTC they bought in China, they will keep that currency abroad and invest it there. Of course you can do the same with mining - instead of buying BTC at exchanges - but this will require first investing in China to buy China built mining equipment and operate your mine. That's the difference I see.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#139

Post by solotronics »

rothbardrand wrote: post #122
cm2187 wrote: post #97

Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were using encryption to ensure that no one can create more currencies like a fiat currency. But we can just clone the currency, let's create bitcoin cash! Or let's agree to change the algorithm! Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were meant to be immune from government interference. Wait, China cracking down on bitcoin makes its value plunge! There is only one way to learn disc…

Who is losing money? A year ago BTC was under $600. Today it's over $3,000. Surely a painful lesson for anyone holding for 12 months. Yes, you can fork open source software, but as you see the value doesn't come from the code intrinsically. BCH is at $500, even after pumping and a year long campaign of misinformation. Other alts have to provide compelling value to get a good market price. Nobody ever said cryptocurre…

they will be having this same argument when BTC is $40k and drops to $30k, will it be in 2 years or 5 years who knows?

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#140

Post by rothbardrand »

Nursie wrote: post #133
rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

A massive assumption followed by a declaration that it's massively undervalued. Yup, that's it, I'm investing! >> Bitcoin is the very definition of a disruptive technology that will revolutionize society for the better and hackers are embracing it. No, it's pretty much the definition of an e-tulip, and today has shown that it can and will be hugely affected by the actions of governments.

I guess since your response consists of just characterizations of me, ignoring my argument, and characterizing bitcoin as some form of "tulip mania" ignoring the history of both, and what bitcoin is, that no substantive response is necessary or would be useful.

You do not seem to realize that BTC was "crashed" from $1,200 to around $800 back in January of this year. Was that also proof of whatever it is you're trying to claim?

You think that when the price goes up it is proof that bitcoin is a bubble and a mania... and that when price goes down it proves it's a bubble and a mania.

Also, the massive down voting that my post has gotten- despite it being a substantive contribution to the discussion-- with the uprooting your post has gotten, despite it being nothing but characterizations-- is actually very bullish for bitcoin. So long as even the "hackers" here don't get it, then that's proof it hasn't crossed the chasm and isn't in a bubble. (And your opposition is really all about the fact that bitcoin disproves several sacred economic theories.)

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