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Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

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Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#121

Post by redog »

korzun wrote: post #70

I talked about this before, and most people instantly wrote this off. The typical response was 'If X bans the cryptocurrency, we will just trade in another country. That's the whole point!'. Can somebody explain what will happen if U.S starts to feel the pressure from Bitcoin and kills it at the point of exchange? Sure, you will still have your Bitcoins, but they will drop in value and become useless. Furthermore, wh…

> Can somebody explain what will happen if U.S starts to feel the pressure from Bitcoin and kills it at the point of exchange?

Can you explain how they would? To me this sounds like saying the US would ban World of Warcraft cash.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#122

Post by rothbardrand »

cm2187 wrote: post #97

Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were using encryption to ensure that no one can create more currencies like a fiat currency. But we can just clone the currency, let's create bitcoin cash! Or let's agree to change the algorithm! Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were meant to be immune from government interference. Wait, China cracking down on bitcoin makes its value plunge! There is only one way to learn disc…

Who is losing money? A year ago BTC was under $600. Today it's over $3,000. Surely a painful lesson for anyone holding for 12 months.

Yes, you can fork open source software, but as you see the value doesn't come from the code intrinsically. BCH is at $500, even after pumping and a year long campaign of misinformation. Other alts have to provide compelling value to get a good market price.

Nobody ever said cryptocurrencies were immune from government interference. They are immune from government corruption. You haven't shown anything to the contrary.

IT's funny how, whenever BTC slips a little you guys declare victory, but you're kinda ignoring we're up 10X in 18 months.... where are your declarations of defeat? (if that's your standard- price movement.)

How many years of knocking down the same straw men is it going to take?

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#123

Post by v64 »

root_axis wrote: post #108
v64 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cash can be used for illegal purposes too. Private, unencumbered, tax-free transactions have licit purposes as well.

So what? Their point is that cash has other uses as well besides the illegal ones. I would argue that bitcoin has some additional uses besides the illegal ones, but they're extremely niche.

Part of the reason why the US Dollar is so valuable is because of its extensive use in illicit operations. Even if a cryptocurrency is used for illegal purposes, that use increases its value for licit activities, as niche as they may be.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#124

Post by vasilipupkin »

redog wrote: post #121
korzun wrote: post #70

I talked about this before, and most people instantly wrote this off. The typical response was 'If X bans the cryptocurrency, we will just trade in another country. That's the whole point!'. Can somebody explain what will happen if U.S starts to feel the pressure from Bitcoin and kills it at the point of exchange? Sure, you will still have your Bitcoins, but they will drop in value and become useless. Furthermore, wh…

> Can somebody explain what will happen if U.S starts to feel the pressure from Bitcoin and kills it at the point of exchange? Can you explain how they would? To me this sounds like saying the US would ban World of Warcraft cash.

the issue is at some point you need to be able to convert btc to dollars. and if that avenue is completely closed, value of btc will drop.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#125

Post by rothbardrand »

johnwheeler wrote: post #100
cm2187 wrote: post #97

Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were using encryption to ensure that no one can create more currencies like a fiat currency. But we can just clone the currency, let's create bitcoin cash! Or let's agree to change the algorithm! Hold on, I thought crypto-currencies were meant to be immune from government interference. Wait, China cracking down on bitcoin makes its value plunge! There is only one way to learn disc…

Even more fascinating is how btc speculators have managed to convince themselves that the original thesis crumbling actually improves their positions. The mind believes what it wants to.

Uh... please name the original thesis that is crumbling.

Coin supply limited to 21 million -- still in force. Easy global transactions online that you can do with your phone-- still working Censorship resistance-- still there Trustlessness -- still trustworthy

What exactly do you think is the thesis that has crumbled?

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#126

Post by rothbardrand »

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success?

There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just among American millionaires, they will never be able to all own two bitcoins. How many will try to put %5-%10 of their net worth into bitcoin when they become convinced of its reliability?

Bitcoin has been under various forms of attack, by state level actors and by hackers for the past 8 years and it has done quite well. I am unaware of any software project that has captured this much value with this little vulnerability.

The value of all the gold in the world is about $8T. Bitcoin as a store of value has a lot of advantages over gold:

- Its terminal supply is absolutely fixed, unlike gold, and its rate of inflation is rapidly decreasing to below golds.

- It's easy to store wealth in without being obvious to others.

- It is easier to transport bitcoin than any significant amount of wealth

- It is easier to protect bitcoin than gold. Gold has to be guarded, Bitcoin can be split in to an n-of-m key and encrypted and replicated, securing it from fire, theft, etc.

So given all that, what is the ultimate intrinsic value of bitcoin? Lets say it is half that of gold. Then what's the intrinsic value of a single bitcoin?

That's something we can calculate: $4T / 21,000,000 = $190,476

Bitcoin is better than gold at gold's primary purpose. Yet its current value is much less than that of gold. This makes sense given that bitcoin has not yet crossed the chasm-- but gold is also something very rare for people to hold. People have a negative net worth and not a lot of them hold gold.

Bitcoin is the very definition of a disruptive technology that will revolutionize society for the better and hackers are embracing it. You should too.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#127

Post by vasilipupkin »

rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

I agree with the gist of the argument, but non industrial ( i.e. financial ) value of gold is much less than 8T, more like 1-2 T. So by this calculation max value is about 50k a bitcoin. So, upside of buying now at 3-5k is not as great

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#128

Post by michaf »

lloyd-christmas wrote: post #82
dna_polymerase wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Resistance level? It's 2017 and you still believe technical analysis BS?

Resistance levels do exist in reality, but things don't bounce off whole numbers because "magic". They bounce becomes humans are human and place their bids and offers at those whole numbers. That being said, I'd be looking at those bids and offers, not the chart.

These technical analysis features can become 'self fulfilling prophecies', if a significant number of market participants believe in them (meaning it's a psychological effect). Other than that TA seems to be mostly BS.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#129

Post by rothbardrand »

nwah1 wrote: post #36
paxpelus wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market cap is the main reason in my opinion. The more people get involved the less volatile it is going to be. You should see how volatile BTC was in 2011-2012, what is happening right now is nothing in comparison.

The main reason for the volatility is that there is no actual use for them, and no entrenched demand via a tax system. The price of bitcoin can literally fall to zero. With fiat currency, achieving that would require the government losing its power to enforce tax collection. People losing interest in a fad seems to be a bigger risk than a governmental collapse.

There are two jurisdictions that I know about which take tax payments in bitcoin-- in Switzerland and part of Japan (maybe all of Japan)

But this is irrelevant. Taxes have nothing to do with a currencies value. The tax rates in the US vs the EU do not affect the Dollar to Euro exchange rate.

This argument seems to be more a product of some sort of ideological fetish for taxation than an economic perspective.

Re: Bitcoin dropping after BTC China said it is closing

#130

Post by random023987 »

rothbardrand wrote: post #126

Every time bitcoin slips a little, the anti-bitcoin crowd claims victory and it's kinda hilarious. The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure? Why is down $500 failure but up 15X in less than 30 months not success? There are about 11 million millionaires in America. There are only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins total. That means, even just amon…

> The summer of 2015 BTC was around $200, it's now over $3,000- so up 15X in a bit over 2 years. This is failure?

As a modern eTulip bubble, it's a "success" for anyone who has made money speculating.

As a replacement for fiat money, it's an absolute disaster as a currency. Volatility and high transaction fees have killed any opportunity Bitcoin may have had to gain traction as a way to pay for anything besides drugs, ransomware, and evading currency controls.

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