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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#121

Post by nradov »

sneak wrote: post #52
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.

Geography alone rules out an extremely quick invasion.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#122

Post by lmilcin »

orangecat wrote: post #55
lmilcin wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

Taiwan is far more strategically important than Crimea. I'd hope at a minimum we'd raze TSMC facilities and get key personnel out of the country.

I guess that's the point. Whether some people get help depends on whether they are of strategic import to US.

Friendships made this way are very weak.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#123

Post by sneak »

FPGAhacker wrote: post #103
sneak wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.

Possibly. It would take a strong economic interest for the US government to do anything. Losing TSMC to China might be enough. We live in interesting times.

TSMC would not be lost "to China", it would merely be lost from the world.

China would not end up with TSMC following a takeover of Taiwan.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#124

Post by magicsmoke »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #84
cpleppert wrote: post #67

I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & developm…

I think you are forgetting that there are nuclear missile submarines within striking distance of every major Chinese city. This is a game of chicken, not a game of "who has better logistics."

I'm sure getting SF and LA nuked because the US lobbed a couple at Beijing and Shanghai first will play great with the electorate.

It would also be the third time the US unilaterally used nuclear weapons first which I'm sure has no international political implications.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#125

Post by dfjgkl43 »

lmilcin wrote: post #100
vehementi wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.

Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.

If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#126

Post by ddevault »

PureParadigm wrote: post #72
beloch wrote: post #58

"An invasion of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, would force the U.S. to decide whether to go to war with China to defend an implicit ally." The U.S. and its allies have two choices: 1. Officially recognize Taiwan as a country and make it an explicit ally. 2. Give Xi the green light to annex Taiwan. I don't see any middle ground here. Failure to do #1 is functionally the same as #2.

Currently the US is not choosing either of these because they both have downsides. In (1), this may embolden Taiwan to take risky and provocative actions such as declaring themselves an independent country. (2) is obviously not in US interests. Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side w…

Taiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#127

Post by nradov »

aphextron wrote: post #38
javert wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

Regardless of US public opinion, if an invasion starts then the US Navy will likely get involved. It might be very limited to start, but inevitably there will be an incident with significant US casualties. And then we'll retaliate and the conflict will escalate.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#128

Post by tablespoon »

Fricken wrote: post #102
gentleman11 wrote: post #54

All the American companies that choose to censor the word Taiwan and call it part of China are directly complicit with this. No rational person in a position of responsibility could have thought that this wasn’t the long term intention

Not even the American government officially recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign nation. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States...

> Not even the American government officially recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign nation.

Kinda sorta. The US treats Taiwan as a de facto sovereign nation, but doesn't give it de jure recognition because of the complications caused by the PRC's conditions for diplomatic relations. So focusing on "official recognition" is pretty misleading in this exceedingly weird case.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#129

Post by dirtyid »

There's a lot of conflation of US domestic politics with Chinese domestic politics. Xi's comment on TW during his Fujian trip this week:

> “We should focus on promoting integration by means of communication, benefit, and emotions, and have the courage to explore new ways of cross-strait integration and development.”

There's no PRC pressure to make military moves on TW for a while. Not until after 2035, post military modernizations, most of which do not suggest focus on invasion at all. The two sessions trolling of highway / bridge to Taiwan is 15 years away, after which timing and politics is much better for US/PRC since TW silicon shield would have evaporated.

Btw in the article, "implicit ally" links to pre Biden Cato article during dramatic time that Pompeo could grant Taiwan security guarantee. That never happened. Alaska meeting last week reaffirmed "one china" framework, both parties seems to be fine with not dealing with potential TW conflict in next 4-8 years. People need to remember no one, not US/PRC/EU likes TSMC having semi dominance, it's pure happenstance due to bad industrial policy on everyone's part that TW semi could cause this much friction. It's bad for all factions, no one wants to rock the boat until semi moves out of TW... which is happening.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#130

Post by everybodyknows »

phyalow wrote: post #86
justicezyx wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which intentional treaty denied Taiwan being part of China? BTW, it's totally fine for people living on the Taiwan island to form an independent country, like what Jewish people did. But please, do not annex my home country's sovereign land.

http://blog.yalebooks.com/2021/01/26/china-and-the-fate-of-t...

> China forgot about Taiwan, treated it as part of a foreign country and even regarded its people as part of a separate Taiwanese nation. This remained true for almost half a century, from the loss of the island in 1895 until the “rediscovery” of the island by China’s Nationalist government in 1942.

Anecdata: A Taiwanese expat coworker told me that Kai-Shek’s arrival, with the remains of his KMT army, felt much like an invasion to the natives — such as his own parents. This was not because they had CCP sympathies, rather because they felt historically closer to Japan. This despite his family being of Han ethnicity themselves.

A turning point came when a non-KMT candidate won the presidency. If Taiwan’s internal rift continues to heal, Beijing will feel more urgency than ever.

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