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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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121–130 of 226 posts

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#121
post #94

This analysis is flawed. People are paying a premium in the futures market to have exposure to BTC without having to acquire and hold physical bitcoins. There is a similar trend in other regulated exchange products like GBTC https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_na...

> physical bitcoins

let's give him the benefit of the doubt and take it as "the bits of your private keys in a hardware wallet" :)

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

> a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site I don't think this is the case, it feels more like people here are no longer as easily charmed by the whole buzzword catalogue surrounding bitcoin. This switch from everyone starting a new cryptocurrency and "X, but on blockchain" dominating the discourse towards a more critical view probably just feels more extreme than it really is.

I don't think there's a community on the internet that is as anti-crypto as HN. At least I've never seen one.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#123
post #28
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

This doesn't sound right to me. It seems like your analysis assumes that BTC has already become a store of value, and people are putting excess income into it, like gold. In that future, why wouldn't there be buyers? There aren't new people earning money and investing excess income?

People need to turn gold into fiat in order to spend it. Those are people with excess wealth and not enough income. There will always be people on the other side, excess income but low wealth.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#124
post #71
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I could see it being banned by the US government and others... It's difficult to imagine this causing the price to go any direction other than up.

I believe the opposite to be accurate, as we have seen in the past.

> as we have seen in the past

To what do you refer here?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#125
post #89
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that requires democratically elected consensus - save regulatory capture - which would then allow us to focus on crypto that doesn't unnecessarily transfer wealth from later adopters weighted toward earlier adopters.

Yea it's called every western government which is already a democracy. USD is the democratic coin. Bitcoin isn't democracy. It's the opposite. Absolute property rights removed from the state

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#126
post #77
post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Also @dang, should require every user to add a tag/label that will show us if they are a Bitcoin speculator/owner, and would be great if then upvotes/downvotes had a stat that was viewable to see what % of upvotes/downvotes posts or comments have are by those who are financially incentivized for Bitcoin to succeed. Edit to add: what are the odds this comment would be downvoted in a Bitcoin thread? Would be great to s…

Taleb would say that those people should be listened to more, because they have skin in the game.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's true at all. Inflation of fiat is widely accepted as people know more gets printed all the time. You know your dollar will be worth less next year due to inflation. This is why people invest in interest baring accounts and stocks. Dollars by themselves lose money over time.

And yet more people use dollars, and have bank accounts with dollars or their home country's currency. Bitcoin's block reward can be changed as well, it's not some immutable law of the blockchain. I'm not claiming that it will change, but I also see the potential for there to be a change there to incentivize mining once the block rewards are minuscule and miners are dependent on transaction fees for profitability.

> And yet more people use dollars, and have bank accounts with dollars or their home country's currency.

Those people are losing money due to inflation. This is well known and an issue with people keeping cash in "mattresses".

> Bitcoin's block reward can be changed as well, it's not some immutable law of the blockchain. I'm not claiming that it will change, but I also see the potential for there to be a change there to incentivize mining once the block rewards are minuscule and miners are dependent on transaction fees for profitability.

This is called a hard fork, and has been done more or less unsuccessfully multiple times now.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#128

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Bitcoin is an awful currency for illegal transactions. A permanent public ledger waiting for eventual de-anonymization sounds like a prosecutors dream. I never understood why people described Bitcoin as an anonymous currency, it really isn’t. Arguably physical currency is much, much more anonymous than Bitcoin.

A valid point and definitely something people should be aware of. It's disingenuous to call Bitcoin anonymous.

On the other hand, "anonymous" is to some degree like computer "security". Secure against what threat? Anonymous to who?

Paper money is certainly traceable to some degree. Plus it almost requires you to meet in person, where the other person in the transaction can see your physical appearance (or your proxy/accomplice's).

Both mediums of exchange have similar risk profiles, but they are a little bit different. Not sure that I'd argue one is better than the other, generally. Depends on the use case.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#129
post #100

Bitcoin in itself is quite useful, it’s something people will exchange for usd or things of value which the gov can’t censor or directly police. Bitcoin’s price is determined by zero fundamentals, so it will swing wildly if you zoom Out enough, forever. That’s why if you ask me it makes logical sense to have 1-10% Of the portfolio betting long or short, because it has a much better than 1 in 10 chances of going x10 o…

Bitcoin is useful for what? Getting around the law? For pumping and dumping?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a decade? There really is no alternative for where to park your money in 2021 unless you want to buy real-estate or stocks both of which come with their own massive set of problems.

So virtual asset, with multiple price swings, much wider than real estate during housing crisis, is the place to park money?

What's the major downside of parking 1% of your money in a volatile asset that may or may not yield great returns? (Am long BTC)
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