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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#111

Post by chatallo »

Synaesthesia wrote: post #35
jarym wrote: post #17

So about the same as any major fiat currency - sure one day you can wake up and it be gone. Next.

Kind of rare to have fiat currencies move as much as Bitcoin does in a day.

I think the comparison is a little unfair, as it's comparing two fundamentally different technologies - and crypto is in it's infancy. I'd be interested to learn about speculation driven volatility in currencies of the past (perhaps when the fed was first established, or with currencies of ancient civilizations), but I also think cryptocurrency is the first of its kind in many ways.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#112

Post by justapassenger »

Hitton wrote: post #84
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

>Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. So is US dollar.

Dollar is powered by one of the biggest economical, political and military power in the world.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#113

Post by globular-toast »

bhouston wrote: post #40
anm89 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold doesn't have earnings releases either.

It at least is tied to a physical thing. There are then limits to how high gold can go in price as higher prices means more will come to the market to sell it because the higher prices are not viewed as sustainable. Whereas with bitcoin, it is fairly unmoored from physical constraints. There is no natural price for bitcoin. It could go up forever or drop to nothing and both are acceptable valuations that would be har…

The only plus I can see is a stronger belief that you can't synthesise gold. Synthesising Bitcoin would take an enormous amount of coordinated computing power, but it is technically possible. Other than that I don't see why it matters that gold is a physical thing.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#114

Post by solosoyokaze »

justapassenger wrote: post #106
solosoyokaze wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a decade? There really is no alternative for where to park your money in 2021 unless you want to buy real-estate or stocks both of which come with their own massive set of problems.

So virtual asset, with multiple price swings, much wider than real estate during housing crisis, is the place to park money?

The trend has very consistently been for BTC to increase in value (helped by USD decreasing in value). There are only "wide" price swings at very high resolution.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#115

Post by junippor »

> Systematically, the futures contracts for months that are further away, are more expensive than those with closer expiration, and also cheaper than spot

> This is usually due to the fact that there’s a risk premium on the uncertainty of the future, and it costs a little bit to be sure of the price that you’ll pay for something three months from now.

This is wrong. Being sure of the the price you'll pay in the three months from now does NOT cost this premium. It costs essentially nothing (other than the transaction fee, which is much smaller - of the order of 0.025% on most exchanges, plus the orderbook spread). Note in particular that this transaction cost doesn't depend on the time horizon, unlike the premium the author refers to.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#116

Post by fanciestManimal »

solosoyokaze wrote: post #76
fanciestManimal wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I own some crypto too, but the dollar has a much larger social network effect of people who agree it's the store of value for the future, no? So does the Euro. It's a bit weird that you would claim that bitcoin's intrinsic value is that it's a store of value, but then deny the same reality for other traditional currencies.

I don't think that's true at all. Inflation of fiat is widely accepted as people know more gets printed all the time. You know your dollar will be worth less next year due to inflation. This is why people invest in interest baring accounts and stocks. Dollars by themselves lose money over time.

And yet more people use dollars, and have bank accounts with dollars or their home country's currency.

Bitcoin's block reward can be changed as well, it's not some immutable law of the blockchain. I'm not claiming that it will change, but I also see the potential for there to be a change there to incentivize mining once the block rewards are minuscule and miners are dependent on transaction fees for profitability.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#118

Post by judge2020 »

loceng wrote: post #77
desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Also @dang, should require every user to add a tag/label that will show us if they are a Bitcoin speculator/owner, and would be great if then upvotes/downvotes had a stat that was viewable to see what % of upvotes/downvotes posts or comments have are by those who are financially incentivized for Bitcoin to succeed. Edit to add: what are the odds this comment would be downvoted in a Bitcoin thread? Would be great to s…

Let's make people link their brokerage account while we're at it so that someone can't post Waymo news if they own GOOG stock.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#119

Post by Hydraulix989 »

hntrader wrote: post #98
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #87

> contango for financial products isn’t normal, is that you can arbitrage it very easily, as you don’t have storage costs This is a bit hand wavy. Holding Bitcoin has real administrative and compliance costs for financial players in a position to sell Bitcoin futures. Particularly since, to do this properly, you’d need to be trading on the referenced cryptocurrency exchanges. Also, I don’t think that default probabil…

Yeah. There are storage costs. Primarily the counterparty risk associated with current custody solutions.

You might contain this risk with m-of-n wallet signatures. The real risk is asset volatility.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#120

Post by JumpCrisscross »

solosoyokaze wrote: post #105
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the hypothesis that the U.S. switching to Bitcoin as legal tender would let it liquidate its military?

The US would never switch to BTC as legal tender because they can't control the supply of BTC. BTC is "clean" money in that it doesn't have the blood of millions and an imperialistic army powering it. The energy usage by BTC is a drop in the bucket compared to the ecological damage wreaked by the US military.

> US would never switch to BTC as legal tender because they can't control the supply of BTC

Most evidence shows the U.S. no longer benefits from the dollar as a global reserve currency. And lots of governments have currency boards or currencies they don’t control.

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