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Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#121

Post by dirtyid »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #114
dirtyid wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the question is, what is the motive behind releasing this statement? It doesn't really benefit Ukraine to shit on Boeing so rashly and publicly because they're still beholden to US support. The calculation behind the messaging is very curious. Did Iran request Ukraine to release this statement? Why would Ukraine oblige them. Did the US ask Ukraine because maybe Iranians will attribute the crash to US hostility l…

> The calculation behind the messaging is very curious Social media is already promoting baseless conspiracy theories. Traditionally, one gathered facts and then communicated. But the world isn't waiting. And those rumors can have real consequences. So coming out with incomplete, preliminary information is better than giving the idiots a monopoly on messaging.

>The responsible thing to do is wait. But the world isn't waiting. So coming out with incomplete, preliminary information is better than letting idiots spin yarn.

Well the idiot in this situation is the Ukrainian embassy. Official diplomatic declaration is very different from idiots on social media spinning yarn. I'm not saying people aren't jumping to conclusions, just recognizing that hasty official statements to plane crashes is atypical, though current events are atypical.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#122

Post by iso947 »

sschueller wrote: post #41
echelon wrote: post #12

(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.) It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames: https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397... Video of the aftermath /…

This is all speculation at this point. Let's hope we find the definite cause as some point.

More important than finding out the cause is ensuring we don’t find out the wrong cause.

We’ll likely never know MH370s cause. That’s annoying, and heartbreaking Dott those affected. In itself it doesn’t lead to tens of thousands of more deaths.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#123

Post by jplayer01 »

actuator wrote: post #85

Does anyone remember how much time it took to nail down the cause of MH17 crash? If memory serves me right, during the MH17 shoot down over Ukraine it was established quite early that it was a work of a surface to air missile launched by rebels. If Iran did really shoot down the plane by mistake, can they cover it up by not giving access to the debris?

The US has plenty of detection capability for missiles, such as how they tracked the ballistic missiles earlier. As in the Ukraine case, I'm sure they'll be more than willing to share the missile trajectory sooner rather than later if there is one (they shared the Ukraine one 5 days after the crash). I'm not sure how trustworthy it'll be, but that's something I'm waiting for as the situation develops.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#124

Post by Razengan »

mulmen wrote: post #100
sschueller wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it was built 3 years ago. Does proper engineering prevent future failures if the assembly process becomes flawed at a later time? For example using cheaper materials, ignoring cracks, not properly training new employees etc.

What does this kind of baseless speculation accomplish?

What is accomplished by downvoting and attacking people for asking questions instead of answering them?

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#125

Post by bitcoinbutter »

actuator wrote: post #85

Does anyone remember how much time it took to nail down the cause of MH17 crash? If memory serves me right, during the MH17 shoot down over Ukraine it was established quite early that it was a work of a surface to air missile launched by rebels. If Iran did really shoot down the plane by mistake, can they cover it up by not giving access to the debris?

The investigation is on Iranian soil. There is no access to the FAA or similar agencies. Iran would have every reason to want to cover up an erroneous missile launch.

In Ukraine, there was a cooperative effort to investigate the crash, and it was found to be a Russian missile.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#126

Post by Kiro »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #102
echelon wrote: post #12

(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.) It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames: https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397... Video of the aftermath /…

> It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Come on. Don't do this. Planes are complex machines. They're pressurized and propelled by a continuous explosion. There are lots of ways for things to go wrong. A good rule of thumb in aviation is to ignore the first 24 hours of news. There are no facts. Everyone is an armchair crash investigator. And…

Then we should just close this thread since literally everything will be speculation at this point.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#127

Post by altacc »

sschueller wrote: post #3

This will be a difficult investigation. As we have seen with other Boeing crashes, Boeing will blame everyone else before admitting anything. Iran for sure won't admit it if they shot it down by mistake and if the US shot it down they wouldn't admit it either.

It will be a difficult investigation if Boeing aren't allowed to participate due to US sanctions against Iran, or Iranian obstruction.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#128

Post by mikejb »

allovernow wrote: post #105
mikejb wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ukrainian embassy reported preliminary information indicates engine failure, and excludes a rocket or terrorist attack as cause. [1] Particularly at this time, I wouldn't trust random sources on the web to provide accurate information about events. [1] https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/iran-plane-cras...

How much can you trust government agencies in times like these? With so many competing intelligence agencies, quite possibly sitting on the brink of WWIII, I don't think it's outlandish for an official source to lie, intentionally or not.

The amount of trust put into any conclusion at this point should be minimal, and whilst I understand and partly share the lack of trust in embassy statements, I posted this to counter the blind "looks like it was shot down, someone on twitter said so" conclusion.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#129

Post by saberdancer »

dirtyid wrote: post #101
hnarn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that's a quick investigation by the Ukrainian embassy /s

Well the question is, what is the motive behind releasing this statement? It doesn't really benefit Ukraine to shit on Boeing so rashly and publicly because they're still beholden to US support. The calculation behind the messaging is very curious. Did Iran request Ukraine to release this statement? Why would Ukraine oblige them. Did the US ask Ukraine because maybe Iranians will attribute the crash to US hostility l…

To me it looks like Ukrainian embassy in Teheran reported to Ukraine what Iranians told them. This then gets repeated in Ukrainian media, picked up by western media and we have a story how Ukrainian embassy says it's not a missile. I doubt they know for sure at this moment.

There is no way anyone can know cause of the crash unless if it was shot down or bombed (in that case the missile comanders and/or terrorists would know).

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#130

Post by tempsy »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #102
echelon wrote: post #12

(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.) It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames: https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397... Video of the aftermath /…

> It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Come on. Don't do this. Planes are complex machines. They're pressurized and propelled by a continuous explosion. There are lots of ways for things to go wrong. A good rule of thumb in aviation is to ignore the first 24 hours of news. There are no facts. Everyone is an armchair crash investigator. And…

what is the point of this being the top post on HN then if there’s no point to speculation? What are people supposed to be commenting for, really?
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