Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#121

Post by mikeash » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:47 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #111

mikeash wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quick search on cars.com reveals 1,700 new cars within 50 miles of my zip code for under $15,000. I agree that a decent EV for that price is just not practical yet, but cheap ICE cars have no trouble hitting it.

That's fair I guess, I did a cursory search and saw things from Toyota and Nissan in the $16-18k range, and I didn't really search more. But I was also expecting to compare MSRP, but I now realize that it's not really a good comparison since Teslas are bought less like cars (with haggling and discounts) and more like a new phone (you pay the price they set). Still, I'm floored that ICE cars are that cheap!

Yeah, you can believe the MSRP for Tesla but for other cars you need to see what the local dealers are offering. (And even then, it’s approximate.)

The low end gets very basic, but some people just want cheap transportation and don’t care about features.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#122

Post by leesec » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:48 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #29

Reason077 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?" Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.

But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.

Remember how the last U.S. car company to make it to mass production was over 100 years ago?

Scaling up cars is really, really hard. It is not software.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#123

Post by mikestew » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:48 PM UTC

BaconJuice wrote: post #57

is now a good time to buy? [serious]

I'll say this as one who has traded a fair amount of TSLA, starting shortly after IPO. I've done well enough with it to have purchased several of their cars (we do not own one, however). I also sold most of what we had a few months back via call options, save 50 shares.

With my resume out of the way: if you have to ask on Hacker News whether or not to buy TSLA, then don't. A lot of what drives that price up or down is drama, not financials or technical charting. If you like to buy your stocks based on what the Kardashians are up to this week, maybe pick up 100 shares. But seriously, just stay the hell away. You want to roll dice right now, go buy BA.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#124

Post by gre » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:49 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #115

gre wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, it just feels wrong in this case. Who wants a Tesla without autopilot? If they're trying to sell as many as possible, give the software away for free.

Now that you mention it, if they're trying to sell as many as possible, why not just give away the car for free? People love free cars.

That's just bad for business.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#125

Post by goshx » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:49 PM UTC

justtopost wrote: post #89

kasey_junk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am definitely uneducated & also unlikely to ever buy a luxury car at the Tesla price point. But if I weren’t what electric car would I buy?

You would not buy electric if well versed in automotive tech. Notice few if any mechanics drive ecars.

You mean, you would not buy electric if, as a mechanic, most of your knowledge cannot be applied to an electric car.

For other people who like speed and performance, Tesla's are the cheapest way to get there.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#126

Post by mikeash » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:50 PM UTC

mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #110

mikeash wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like that entire account is dedicated to attacking Tesla. Can we believe it?

Should it matter? You can analyze this disparate piece of evidence independently of the agenda. In fact, you might even say that by putting the cards on the table, at least this source is transparent about which stance of the topic it is taking, giving you opportunity to take care when evaluating single pieces of evidence.. this is possibly better than sources which purport to be fair and balanced and go to greater l…

Most of us don’t have the time to perform our own analysis from scratch. So, yes, it matters a great deal.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#127

Post by paganel » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:51 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #119

refurb wrote: post #64

Interesting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049

Even worse, I was driving around the other day and saw entire parking lots full of inventory at this weird thing called a dealership, maybe GM and Ford are going under since they have all this inventory sitting there?

US car sales have been down for the first three months of the year [1], not to mention that Ford has got out of the car-market almost all-together in the States and I suspect GM is going to do the same pretty soon, too. All things considered the next few years are going to be pretty challenging for everyone involved in the auto market, from suppliers to manufacturers to dealerships.

[1] https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/02/auto-sales-decline-march...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#128

Post by goshx » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:54 PM UTC

frontloadpro wrote: post #32

Dumblydorr wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

This is a Strawman comment, from an uneducated car buyer. There are plenty of higher quality electric vehicles. The acceleration is one tiny aspect of customer satisfaction. Tesla has worst in class interiors and reliability. Not having buttons or trays is something only Tesla can get away with. Is it better for the environment to buy a used car? Or better for the environment to buy a new car?

For someone claiming to be so educated, how can you make so many false statements?

Perhaps you should have a personal experience with them before going around just repeating what you read somewhere or from your imagination.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#129

Post by mhermher » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:55 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #88

refurb wrote: post #64

Interesting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049

Looks like that entire account is dedicated to attacking Tesla. Can we believe it?

You don't believe those cars are? I don't get it. What's to believe or not?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#130

Post by Shivetya » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:55 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #40

gizmo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analyist with the best track record (and it isn't even close) is @coverdrive12 on twitter and he called 65,000 optimistic yesterday. This big miss doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has followed those who track the VINs, shipping data, and activity at the Tesla stores. I should also point out that Musk's reiterated guidance of 500,000 cars this year is absolutely absurd at this point.

The reiterated guidance was for 360,000 - 400,000 cars. Tesla still doesn't want to sell $35K 3's, they've still got huge delays on those. And of course there's soft demand for $55K 3's, $85K S's and $100K X's in a market that includes $35K 3's. It's the mix of $35K 3's they sell that indicates demand while they're production constrained, and that number is still essentially zero, so I'm still confident they can sell…

disclaimer, I own a TM3 LR

With regards to the 35k TM3, the SR+ is such a superior deal that its a wonder they can make money on it. However for those in the market for any car, if less an five percent difference is make or break you are already in the wrong price range.

What is interesting that the Bolt, Soul, Niro, and Kona, are all priced the same or higher than a SR with models exceeding even the SR+. I think Tesla should have just taken the PR hit and dropped the SR for the SR+.

Still Tesla's problem may actually be an industry problem, as in EV enthusiasm is not near as high as many claim it to be and the market will quickly saturate for the lower end, as in 50k and below.