Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#31

Post by skellera » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:49 PM UTC

Dumblydorr wrote: post #27

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

Obviously they were speaking in terms of luxury. No need for the loaded question.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#32

Post by frontloadpro » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:51 PM UTC

Dumblydorr wrote: post #27

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

This is a Strawman comment, from an uneducated car buyer.

There are plenty of higher quality electric vehicles.

The acceleration is one tiny aspect of customer satisfaction.

Tesla has worst in class interiors and reliability. Not having buttons or trays is something only Tesla can get away with.

Is it better for the environment to buy a used car? Or better for the environment to buy a new car?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#33

Post by Stephen-E » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:51 PM UTC

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

John Carmack would disagree: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/4kfs42/john_ca...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#34

Post by LoSboccacc » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:52 PM UTC

Dumblydorr wrote: post #27

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

none of that makes a car superior. true that performance matters, but only up to a point, then it's interior space and organization, build quality, comfort, accessibility and why not boot space.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#35

Post by Reason077 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:52 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #29

Reason077 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?" Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.

But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.

While these bad experiences reflect poorly on Tesla and shouldn't happen, I don't think they are normal.

It seems like most people are not waiting very long in Europe and have a smooth delivery experience. Norwegian YouTuber Bjorn Nyland ordered a performance Model 3 and got it in 8 days.

(The cars stored in the parking lot you linked to are clearly used inventory: probably trade-ins. Not new Model 3s.)

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#36

Post by Nelson69 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:56 PM UTC

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

I don't know what your Honda experience has been, but for a very competitive price you can buy an insanely reliable car that you will probably become bored with before you need to replace (so long as you change the oil regularly)

Nobody is mentioning the tax credit either..

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#37

Post by delfinom » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:56 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #14

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Lower prices? Cars geared toward the Everyman.

This is a big part of it. Tesla marketed their new lowend "$35K" Model 3 option but even that's them covering up the real price is $45k up front. Depending on where you live, you may get $5k back in tax credits the next year and then they throw on a $5k gas savings estimate bullshit which is ridiculous. It isn't until you click the see details button in their order system that you see the true price.

That's $45k somebody has to take a loan for and pay a higher monthly payment for than the supposed "$35k after savings!". The savings are complete and utter lie. After you pay interest on that $10k extra you borrowed you lose.

If you buy the car outright in cash, sure, you'll see a savings. But that percentage of the population able to afford such a purchase is small and dwindling.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#38

Post by zaroth » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:57 PM UTC

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Everything about this comment is wrong. Car enthusiasts love Tesla. Check out the WSJ review of the Tesla Model 3 Performance [1];

”This thing is magnificent, a little rainbow-farting space ship, so obviously representative of the next step in the history of autos.”

Tesla’s are also very reliable, despite what CR would have you believe. Owner satisfaction is higher for Tesla than any other car, even Porsche 911 and Corvettes. CR admits that owners would not be satisfied with unreliable cars, and then ding TM3 for touchscreen glitches.

Actually, my touchscreen did freeze several times last year under the original firmware. There was an issue where the internet radio streaming would stall if LTE dropped out just as you were skipping a track. They fixed it at the end of last year and the screen hasn’t stalled even once since that OTA update.

My TM3 literally just got 5% faster due to an OTA update this week, because Tesla decided they had too much margin in their motor design.

Finally, the TCO of a RWD standard range Model 3 is lower than a Honda Accord. These cars have a bad reputation for being expensive. My friends ask me how I could possibly afford a car that will ultimately cost less than a $35k ICE vehicle.

[1] - https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-ever-review-of-the-tesla-...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#39

Post by benj111 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 2:01 PM UTC

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Honda is well known by non car/tech people. My grandparents would buy a Honda because it has a reputation that Tesla doesn't have at this point.

After a few years of people seeing them around, and them appearing in reliability surveys etc, that may change.

Although with their dealership/internet only sales plan up in the air at the moment, that still may not make a difference, because I still can't see my grandparents buying a car off the internet.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#40

Post by bryanlarsen » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 2:02 PM UTC

gizmo wrote: post #26

this_user wrote: post #7

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.

The analyist with the best track record (and it isn't even close) is @coverdrive12 on twitter and he called 65,000 optimistic yesterday. This big miss doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has followed those who track the VINs, shipping data, and activity at the Tesla stores. I should also point out that Musk's reiterated guidance of 500,000 cars this year is absolutely absurd at this point.

The reiterated guidance was for 360,000 - 400,000 cars.

Tesla still doesn't want to sell $35K 3's, they've still got huge delays on those. And of course there's soft demand for $55K 3's, $85K S's and $100K X's in a market that includes $35K 3's. It's the mix of $35K 3's they sell that indicates demand while they're production constrained, and that number is still essentially zero, so I'm still confident they can sell as many 3's as they can build this year.

The question is how many of those cars will be the $35K 3, and if they can make any profit on a mix that includes a large number of $35K 3's.