Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#111

Post by AyyEye » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

Centigonal wrote: post #55

walterbell wrote: post #23

2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

You and I don't get to print money. Other classes do.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#112

Post by eclipticplane » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

Tech was easiest to export cross border. You can export tech through culture, and the USA has been a powerhouse of every major technical cultural channel for the last 50 years.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#113

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

breadwinner wrote: post #106

There is away out of this mess: A U.S. Senate bill that would require congressional approval for new tariffs gained more Republican support on Friday [1]. Trump is not going to back down since that will make him look like a loser. Neither is China. But GOP can help Trump out by creating a new law that automatically expires all new tariffs after 60 days unless approved by congress. This will let Trump extricate his he…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#114

Post by sorcerer-mar » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #23

2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…

> Why must a country run a trade deficit to retain its global reserve currency status? Because when your currency is the global reserve currency, the entire world constantly hungers for it in order to use it in all the various countries’ international trade between each other. The only way to keep those countries constantly supplied with dollars is for Americans to buy tons of foreign imports, which effectively sends dollars to those countries, since these purchases are made with dollars

So... the problem with the US being the reserve currency is that it makes other countries cater to our tastes because they want our money...?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#115

Post by itake » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

China is isolationist and they seem to be growing.

The problem is the USA is a consumer economy which isn’t sustainable. We could get away with it as a tech leader, but with China stepping ahead (Deepseek) china will be a tech leader and manufacturing leader. What will the USA have?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#116

Post by brailsafe » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

My thought today was that aside from the stocks crashing, and aside from any realistic possibility of magically minting new manufacturing facilities, you'd force the price of imported products up in the short term, and prices don't really go back down, so after they go away you'll hypothetically be selling the same products at higher prices that people are now used to, and nothing else needs to happen functionally to increase efficiency or build them domestically. 1) Increase cost of selling imports 2) Crash stock market 3) Buy stocks 4) Remove tariffs 5) Profit

But I don't know wtf I'm talking about.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#117

Post by Trasmatta » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:22 AM UTC

breadwinner wrote: post #106

There is away out of this mess: A U.S. Senate bill that would require congressional approval for new tariffs gained more Republican support on Friday [1]. Trump is not going to back down since that will make him look like a loser. Neither is China. But GOP can help Trump out by creating a new law that automatically expires all new tariffs after 60 days unless approved by congress. This will let Trump extricate his he…

Trump would surely veto, and I currently have doubts there will ever be enough Republican votes to override

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#118

Post by chuckadams » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:23 AM UTC

xh-dude wrote: post #52

jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

Petulantly, I’d observe Trump hates or doesn’t believe in knowledge economies. He’s delivering pain to a lot of people in my circles. For all that, a strategic goal of ensuring trade is sustainable is probably worth sane discussion.

> Trump hates or doesn’t believe in knowledge

shortened that for you

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#119

Post by bdelmas » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:23 AM UTC

OJFord wrote: post #72

bdelmas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

Well before what's happening now the US still was doing very strong on the economy (plus their advantage to be that big, their military advantage, them owning half of their continent, etc...). But with what is unfolding now...

If you want to know more about the current situation in the UK I would recommend this video [1]. His channel is amazing for geopolitical content.

[1] https://youtu.be/OTWDzMjgsEY?si=hxoB8ef_y2Qy4u0I

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#120

Post by breadwinner » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:23 AM UTC

csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

> But what exactly are they doing with the cash?

Buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and hold them to maturity. (Don't buy TIPS funds, their value fluctuates based on interest rates. Buy actual TIPS instead, at either Fidelity or Vanguard.)