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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#101

Post by csomar »

ripped_britches wrote: post #69
fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

The betting site did predict Trump will win the election.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#102

Post by nimos »

jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising.

If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross margins there is a lot of room for competition, though network effects make that competition very difficult. Maybe this is the catalyst for competitors to break in.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#104

Post by labster »

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

There’s still a way out, the US Congress could convene over the weekend and revoke the President’s ability to impose tariffs. Restore it to Congress as stated in the constitution.

Of course they won’t do that. Sic transit gloria mundi.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#106

Post by breadwinner »

There is away out of this mess: A U.S. Senate bill that would require congressional approval for new tariffs gained more Republican support on Friday [1].

Trump is not going to back down since that will make him look like a loser. Neither is China. But GOP can help Trump out by creating a new law that automatically expires all new tariffs after 60 days unless approved by congress. This will let Trump extricate his head from this mess without losing face.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/more-us-senate-republicans-...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#108

Post by travisgriggs »

mathfailure wrote: post #58
beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

I think this might be a move to stop a world war (between Russia and NATO/Europe). If U.S. also leaves NATO any time soon - the chances for a world war would decrease greatly.

Yes, the isolationist era that followed World War One clearly calmed the rest of the world, so that the various "expansionist" regimes felt less threatened and just let their neighbors be.

History rhymes with itself.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#110

Post by outer_web »

kristopolous wrote: post #48
csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Trump just said "fuck you" to 95% of the planet. These stocks have a long way to fall. It sure would be nice to have a competent, organized opposition that does more than finger wag and tsk tsk in a scornful tone

What can be done?
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