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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#111

Post by [deleted] »

ptx wrote: post #95
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

[deleted]

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#112

Post by leto_ii »

londons_explore wrote: post #99
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway.

Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries.

Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible.

> there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime

This almost doesn't merit a reply. A few months of not going to festivals and the cinema is by no measure a catastrophe. It's not fun, but suggesting that your right to fun should trump others' right to life is, again, uncivilized, immoral and irresponsible.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#113

Post by vondur »

usrusr wrote: post #62
frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

How do you completely lock down a care home? It's a labor-intensive industry and you can't just put care on hold for a few weeks like you could with an assembly line. The only way to keep a virus like this away from care homes is to keep it away from friends and families of caretakers and from their friends and families. You can't focus prevention when you are dealing with presymptomatic spread.

I believe there was one place in France where the care workers moved into the facilities and then the movement of people and items into it were strictly controlled. I believe no one died from Covid-19 at the facility.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#114

Post by alexilliamson »

drummer wrote: post #31
martindbp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respira…

This is not the first time you've been called out on HN for quoting that outdated paper. The last time was 70 days ago (it was outdated 2+ months ago).

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#115

Post by grecy »

jnwatson wrote: post #3

I don’t believe the article has addressed Sweden’s main argument for not shutting down: that herd immunity should be the prime driver. Essentially, that everyone is going to eventually have roughly the same death rate, so might as well get it over with. That remains to be seen; if Sweden’s peers can prevent flare-ups, it looks like Sweden was wrong.

Exactly. It also means that we can't judge Sweden's approach for another 12-24-48 months.

Who knows how many times other countries will go in and out of lockdown in the coming years, and how long that will drag on. Melbourne just fully locked down again due to a rise in cases.

It's clear every country will eventually give up and go with Sweden's approach because they'll run out of "free" money, it's just a question of how long they will drag it out, or if a mass-produced vaccine can be effective and arrives in time.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#116

Post by VectorLock »

wbronitsky wrote: post #106
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.

The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#117

Post by cm2187 »

To me this is moving the goalpost.

The stated objective of the lockdown was not to overwhelm the ICUs. As far as I know the ICUs in Sweden have not been overwhelmed. So how is that a failure?

As for the economic impact, given the amount of life support injections into the economy, I think the real economic impact of the shock is yet to be seen. Defaults are only starting to rise.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#118

Post by sjg007 »

drummer wrote: post #73
drummer wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden did the right thing. Covid-19 is not worse than the flu. Norway recently also admitted the lockdown there was not neccesary according to the data they have now. In March they thought differently.

Let's not forget Germany: "A report on the coronavirus by the German Ministry of the Interior was leaked on May 9th 2020 by officer Stephan Kohn to the magazine Tichys Einblick, one of the most popular alternative media in Germany. The report, on which a dozen or so doctors and professors from various universities in Germany have worked, states that “the state has failed in the coronavirus crisis in an almost grotesq…

In this case then the flu would’ve killed em..

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#119

Post by simonh »

claudeganon wrote: post #93
frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

Taiwan. 7 people have died. No major economic impact. Now exporting masks to other countries. No brushing aside deaths of the elderly and disabled as if those people’s lives were nothing. Their’s was demonstrably the best strategy and everyone else is just making excuses.

Taiwan and Germany have the advantage that they have strong domestic medical testing industries. This allowed Germany to do 5x to 10x as many tests as France, Italy and Spain. In turn this enabled them to accurately map the spread of the disease and use targeted tactical lockdowns to eliminate outbreaks at the local level. Korea did the same.

Without the same testing capacity, this strategy simply wasn’t available in most other countries. However now that testing capacity has ramped up, we should be able to employ more efficient lockdowns from now on. It’s still not a magic wand though, Germany’s economy has still suffered significantly even with a relatively efficient lockdown.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#120

Post by leto_ii »

nradov wrote: post #107
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

What is the criteria for defining an acceptable number of deaths?

Any death is unacceptable. This is, of course, unattainable in practice, so I would suggest looking at Eastern European or East Asian societies for a rule of thumb (e.g. Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam etc.).
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