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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#71

Post by noodlenotes »

kingkawn wrote: post #26
marcusverus wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the pandemic is expected to continue for many months, isn't it a bit premature to talk about current death rates as a metric for success? Given Sweden's 'herd immunity' plan, higher death rates at the beginning would seem to be a given. They didn't flatten their curve. But as they approach something like herd immunity, the number of possible carriers should plummet permanently (assuming immunity is a thing with CO…

Herd immunity cannot be considered the plan given that herd immunity has not been proven to be possible

Indefinite lockdowns, vaccines haven't been "proven possible" either. At some point you have to make a plan with the best information you have.

The fact that spread in New York has slowed down compared to other states that weren't initially hit hard implies that there's some immunity effect going on.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#72

Post by oxymoran »

akmarinov wrote: post #59
oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Well Sweden closed its borders, where Michigan can’t close its borders to other states, so Michigan’s is naturally higher.

All the states around Michigan were locked down too. I’m sure there were a small amount of people crossing but we were effectively closed.

We had a pretty strict lock down here and people followed it better than I expected they would. I’m not sure what to think but I do find it odd that 2 similar sized populations took radically different approaches and ended up in essentially the same spot.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#73

Post by drummer »

drummer wrote: post #7
martindbp wrote: post #2

As a Swede that did not agree with the strategy at the time (it was hugely risky), given what we know now, I'm starting to think it was the right decisions (for the wrong reasons). The reason the economy is in trouble has more to do with that the rest of the word shut down, it being a highly export dependent economy. Sweden did not shut down, practically nobody wears a mask (still), social distancing is minimal (cram…

Sweden did the right thing. Covid-19 is not worse than the flu. Norway recently also admitted the lockdown there was not neccesary according to the data they have now. In March they thought differently.

Let's not forget Germany:

"A report on the coronavirus by the German Ministry of the Interior was leaked on May 9th 2020 by officer Stephan Kohn to the magazine Tichys Einblick, one of the most popular alternative media in Germany. The report, on which a dozen or so doctors and professors from various universities in Germany have worked, states that “the state has failed in the coronavirus crisis in an almost grotesque way.” In a press release, the scientists concerned stated that “the observable effects and consequences of COVID-19 do not provide sufficient evidence that it is more than a false alarm in terms of health effects on society as a whole. The new virus has probably never posed a risk to the population in excess of normal levels […]. The people dying from corona are mainly those who are statistically dying this year because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies are no longer able to withstand random daily exposure (including to the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation). The danger of COVID-19 has been overestimated. (No more than 250,000 deaths from COVID-19 worldwide within a quarter of a year, compared to 1.5 million deaths during the flu wave in 2017/18). Of course, the risk is no greater than that of many other viruses. In all likelihood, we are dealing with a global false alarm that has gone unnoticed for a long time.”

They also didn’t have anything positive to say about the ‘protective’ measures of the German criminal government. “The collateral damage [because of the measures] is now enormous and far greater than any observable benefit. […] Just a comparison of previous deaths due to the virus with deaths due to the protective measures prescribed by the State […] supports this finding. Much of this damage will continue to manifest itself even in the near and distant future. This can no longer be prevented but can only be minimized. […] The shortcomings and failures in crisis management have consequently led to the dissemination of unsubstantiated information, and thus disinformation, to the public. […] The State turned out to be one of the biggest fake-news producers in the coronacrisis.”"

https://www.achgut.com/artikel/das_corona_papier_wissenschaf...

https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#74

Post by basch »

oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

>it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect on younger populations

That was something expected before the lockdowns. The lockdowns were sold as a way to buy hospitals time, by flattening and slowing down the spread.

How can you even compare Swedens rate until the whole thing is over, everywhere? A flattened curve will take longer. Sweden purposely chose the frontloaded, higher initial rate.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#75

Post by martindbp »

tomjakubowski wrote: post #19
martindbp wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple: it's not over yet, but it might be for some hard hit areas of Sweden. We'll see. Then there is another question whether it was worth it to shut down the world economy over a 0.05% death rate, or a few years worth of flu at once. I'd say probably no. We didn't know this back in Feb/March, which is why I was very much for a quarantine then, but not now. I don't think the powers that be would have done a complet…

> it might be for some hard hit areas of Sweden The long-term success of Sweden's approach appears to hinge on this question. What evidence is there which supports that their hardest hit locales have achieved herd immunity?

My own observeration from Stockholm is: beaches crowded during heatwave, public transit is crowded as usual. Lots of movement of people, travel within Sweden etc. Practically nobody is wearing a mask. People are still generally careful, washing hands, keeping the distance in lines etc, but I don't think this can explain the cases going down. In March-April, I think people were the most careful, when hundreds were dying every day. Since then people have gradually become more relaxed, but the numbers keep going down.

Of course, it could be that these rather small measures have pushed r0 a bit under 1 ever since March. But there have also been reports that for each person tested with antibodies, two more are actually immune, which would put the immunity at maybe 30% two weeks ago. At least it's in the right ball-park, as some have proposed that herd immunity could be reached at much lower percentages than previously thought.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#76

Post by akmarinov »

Svip wrote: post #63
akmarinov wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Sweden closed its borders, where Michigan can’t close its borders to other states, so Michigan’s is naturally higher.

Sweden did not close its borders, although it followed EU guidelines to close its borders beyond the EU. The US closed its borders to certain areas of the world, which is what this is comparable to.

Well all other countries in the EU closed their borders to them, so it’s effectively the same thing.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#77

Post by basch »

swinglock wrote: post #46
ojnabieoot wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s really deeply misleading to say that Sweden let the virus go “unchecked.” Sweden didn’t enforce a hard lockdown but strongly encouraged social distancing, mask wearing, staying at home, etc. Sweden did have a strong (if likely inadequate) national response to coronavirus. And Sweden was subject to EU-wide travel restrictions, including virtually no foreign tourism.

False regarding mask wearing; wearing a mask has always been and is still strongly discouraged, instead one should only "stay home if feeling sick".

If someone is feeling sick, are they encouraged to go out, but with a mask, elsewhere?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#78

Post by triceratops »

oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Sweden and Michigan have about an equal number of cases (~74k) but Sweden has a better survival rate so far.

Is it possible Sweden just has a healthier population than Michigan? Life expectancy in Sweden is about 4 years higher than Michigan. This also means their population skews older, but means people are healthier on average.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#79

Post by triceratops »

bhupy wrote: post #45
frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

> I do think that that the worst strategy is to have no strategy, seemingly like the USA The USA does not have "no strategy", it just depends from State to State[1]. Every state has had some form of lockdown and school closure. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-ma...

That is the same as "no strategy". Without coordination of the lockdowns, travel monitoring, national testing and contact tracing, you're just going to have shifting hotspots of infection. This also leaves behind an embittered population whose lockdown sacrifices were for nothing.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#80

Post by makomk »

watwut wrote: post #55
drummer wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.

How do you think flu deaths are counted? Because that numbers shows also estimated death people - people who were never even tested on flu. Like, percentage of pneumonia deaths. And they contain also people also having other health issues and not just flu.

Flu deaths are counted as the number of people who die because of the flu - that is, they represent people who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the flu. This is of course an estimate, and there are some pretty fundamental reasons why it has to be such as the fact that flu causes heart attacks and strokes but also just happens to be present in patients who have one for unrelated reasons, but it should be a pretty robust one because flu is an old and well researched disease and we have a vey good idea of how it behaves at a population level.
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