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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#31

Post by drummer »

martindbp wrote: post #11
drummer wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden did the right thing. Covid-19 is not worse than the flu. Norway recently also admitted the lockdown there was not neccesary according to the data they have now. In March they thought differently.

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/

Some quotes:

“Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.”

“Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.”

“Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#32

Post by mettamage »

ojnabieoot wrote: post #28
mettamage wrote: post #17

Edit: I'm letting my original comment stand as it shows how I was subtly misinformed regarding the situation of Sweden. I don't think I'd be the only one. Wait, with all due respect, 5420 deaths on 10 million people? On a country left completely unchecked? That doesn't sound like the impending doom I thought the virus would bring. I thought the novel corona virus had a death rate of about 1% to 2% and a bigger spread…

It’s really deeply misleading to say that Sweden let the virus go “unchecked.” Sweden didn’t enforce a hard lockdown but strongly encouraged social distancing, mask wearing, staying at home, etc. Sweden did have a strong (if likely inadequate) national response to coronavirus. And Sweden was subject to EU-wide travel restrictions, including virtually no foreign tourism.

I see, that's how I understood it. I never checked the media super carefully regarding the Swedes. But now I'm seeing that they did do stuff.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#33

Post by standardUser »

throw-away_42 wrote: post #6
martindbp wrote: post #2

As a Swede that did not agree with the strategy at the time (it was hugely risky), given what we know now, I'm starting to think it was the right decisions (for the wrong reasons). The reason the economy is in trouble has more to do with that the rest of the word shut down, it being a highly export dependent economy. Sweden did not shut down, practically nobody wears a mask (still), social distancing is minimal (cram…

Sweden's total per-capita death rate is 50% higher than the Netherlands, 500% higher than Germany and Denmark, and 900+% higher than Finland, Norway, and Poland. All those deaths have not made you safer--your daily per-capita death rate is still several times that of those countries. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

"All those deaths have not made you safer..."

I'd hold back from making grand proclamations in the middle (beginning?) of the pandemic.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#34

Post by DanBC »

mettamage wrote: post #30
Barrin92 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>How come 0.05% died and not 1% to 2%? Isn't this evidence that the coronavirus isn't as big as a threat as we thought? I mean 0.05% deaths is 40 times smaller than 2% deaths. Because the 1% death rate is a reference to people catching the disease, not the size of the population. Sweden as of now appears to have about 73k officially confirmed cases. Swedes still voluntarily distanced and closed down, hence the econom…

I'm not American, I'm Dutch. And there's a huge difference between WOII levels (which is what 2% deathrate in The Netherlands would be), versus an extra amount of death people comparable to the worst flu season. In The Netherlands, the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. I hope it stays that way for everyone.

> the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona.

Do you have a link to the statistics please? I think you're comparing two different methods of counting death. I think for covid-19 you're counting people who died after testing positive, or people where covid-19 is listed as the cause on the death certificate. But for flu I think you're counting excess mortality.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#35

Post by contemporary343 »

mettamage wrote: post #17

Edit: I'm letting my original comment stand as it shows how I was subtly misinformed regarding the situation of Sweden. I don't think I'd be the only one. Wait, with all due respect, 5420 deaths on 10 million people? On a country left completely unchecked? That doesn't sound like the impending doom I thought the virus would bring. I thought the novel corona virus had a death rate of about 1% to 2% and a bigger spread…

It has not been running rampant in Sweden, because many individuals altered their behaviors as well. Which is to say, Sweden is nowhere close to herd immunity, so it stands to lose many more lives in the future as well. So far: it has lost many more lives per capita than its neighbors, and is economically worse off.

There are also two other important reasons to have locked down early in the pandemic: - with time, we have already learned how to treat patients better and reduce mortality. This includes proning, dexamethasone and remdesivir which will reduce deaths. So exposing people to it in spring 2020 will produce very different mortality outcomes compared to fall or spring 2021 - We also have important therapeutic advances happening in monoclonal antibodies, and of course phase 3 trials of vaccines.

I would bet that, with some luck, other European communities avoid ever accumulating the deaths Sweden did.

Finally, it's more than deaths: many long-haul COVID patients are facing permanent disability and diminished capacity. The statistics aren't capturing this yet, but collectively, I think it was very foolish to have tried to push for herd immunity so early in a pandemic.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#36

Post by wk_end »

tomjakubowski wrote: post #19
martindbp wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple: it's not over yet, but it might be for some hard hit areas of Sweden. We'll see. Then there is another question whether it was worth it to shut down the world economy over a 0.05% death rate, or a few years worth of flu at once. I'd say probably no. We didn't know this back in Feb/March, which is why I was very much for a quarantine then, but not now. I don't think the powers that be would have done a complet…

> it might be for some hard hit areas of Sweden The long-term success of Sweden's approach appears to hinge on this question. What evidence is there which supports that their hardest hit locales have achieved herd immunity?

Numbers and projections show things slowing down in Sweden [1]. The obvious explanation for this would be that herd immunity is kicking in, isn't it?

[1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#37

Post by drummer »

addled wrote: post #16
martindbp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower…

Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#38

Post by contemporary343 »

martindbp wrote: post #2

As a Swede that did not agree with the strategy at the time (it was hugely risky), given what we know now, I'm starting to think it was the right decisions (for the wrong reasons). The reason the economy is in trouble has more to do with that the rest of the word shut down, it being a highly export dependent economy. Sweden did not shut down, practically nobody wears a mask (still), social distancing is minimal (cram…

Not really: I would much rather get the coronavirus today than three months ago. And would much rather get it 6 months or a year from now than today. Survival rates are measurably improving due to both improved procedures (proning) and better protocols on steroid use, as well as emerging therapies like remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies (in addition to convalescent plasma). Not to mention that many vaccines are barreling into phase 3 trials soon. I suspect history will not be kind to Sweden's approach.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#39

Post by redis_mlc »

Barrin92 wrote: post #20
mettamage wrote: post #17

Edit: I'm letting my original comment stand as it shows how I was subtly misinformed regarding the situation of Sweden. I don't think I'd be the only one. Wait, with all due respect, 5420 deaths on 10 million people? On a country left completely unchecked? That doesn't sound like the impending doom I thought the virus would bring. I thought the novel corona virus had a death rate of about 1% to 2% and a bigger spread…

>How come 0.05% died and not 1% to 2%? Isn't this evidence that the coronavirus isn't as big as a threat as we thought? I mean 0.05% deaths is 40 times smaller than 2% deaths. Because the 1% death rate is a reference to people catching the disease, not the size of the population. Sweden as of now appears to have about 73k officially confirmed cases. Swedes still voluntarily distanced and closed down, hence the econom…

> Because the 1% death rate is a reference to people catching the disease, not the size of the population.

No, 1% - 2% death rate refers to expected death rate in total population including old people.

For younger people it's like 0.1%.

It's irritating how HN keeps pushing their narrative that corona is the end of the world. For younger people, it's just the flu.

In fact the 2017 flu was almost as deadly as corona - for old people. You can see the spike in any CDC chart.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#40

Post by ojnabieoot »

mtgp1000 wrote: post #22
mettamage wrote: post #17

Edit: I'm letting my original comment stand as it shows how I was subtly misinformed regarding the situation of Sweden. I don't think I'd be the only one. Wait, with all due respect, 5420 deaths on 10 million people? On a country left completely unchecked? That doesn't sound like the impending doom I thought the virus would bring. I thought the novel corona virus had a death rate of about 1% to 2% and a bigger spread…

Handwashing practices, physical greetings (kissing in some cultures), sharing of eating utensils, personal space, city density; There's no reason to expect R0 values to be the same all over the world.

> prevents scientists from exploring the possibility that R0 values are culturally dependent

This is just not true at all. Let’s call a spade a spade: you are abusing fears about COVID-19 to take a political shot against antiracists. The Lancet published “Ethnicity and COVID-19: an urgent public health research priority” in April: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

It is true that scientists can’t expect to publish about the racial aspects of coronavirus spread, for the same reasons they couldn’t publish about coronavirus differences between wizards and Muggles. Humans only have one race.

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