Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#111

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:21 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #79

ryanhuff wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect as they fix one issue (production, etc), the next in line becomes the bottleneck. Now it’s delivery logistics, but once that’s fixed, it will become service, which already seems to be straining.

Companies around the world are building, shipping and supporting products simultaneously. Really confused why Tesla can't do the same.

Tesla doubled their production last quarter, and everything else needs to double, and they are having trouble. The reason 'other car companies' can do better is because Ford or Porsche are stabile companies, with a slow change in the number of vehicles over time. They are more organized than tesla for sure, and they know how to change manufacturing lines when a new model comes out, way better than the young pup tesla.

But ford doesn't double production every quarter like tesla is doing now; one model might change but overall production, sales, support staff doesn't change. Ford has some amount of slack available, but I doubt they could double production from one quarter to the next and just be okay. At least tesla has shown their delivery was not up to the job. The factory is handling it, but struggling.

Anyway, if I got a new car, tesla or now, I'd want it to be well made and for there to be enough salespeople and support and finance and repair staff to handle me - tesla is sucking wind trying to handle all the new customers. At the same time, they are also on full production of new supercharging stations all across the us and the world.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#112

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:23 PM UTC

goshx wrote: post #82

csours wrote: post #71

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor, any opinions are solely my own. From the linked article: > "And now NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safet... https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/national-highway-traffi... > "NHTSA does not distin…

Thanks for the disclaimer. Obviously the NHTSA does not want the trouble, but the "lowest probability of injury" came from their tests. Apparently they were not supposed to make this public. Truth is, comparing the videos side by side with other 5 star rating vehicles it is pretty clear which one is safer.

I think the fair comparison is something like above a certain level nhtsa wants to say they are all good with little to distinguish them, but there are numeric differences. Like rating a moving from 1 to 5 stars. There is little discernable difference between a 4.8 and 4.9, but you could say "rated better than that 4.8 movie". I think tesla was the top on some numeric scale and nhtsa doesn't want to talk about small differences.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#113

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:26 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #108

reissbaker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need a charging network to fix range anxiety, and infrastructure to make batteries at scale. Charging network the major brands don't really have an answer for yet. And as for batteries, the major brands are still stuck at the small batch, high end segment of the market, because no one makes enough batteries to tackle the lower ends of the market except Tesla — everyone else just buys their batteries from Asia. BM…

BMW sold nearly 600k each of the last few years, so even if "only" a quarter of their sales are EV, that's still almost as many cars as Tesla sells each year. And that's just one competitor out of a dozen, all of whom have significantly more marketing muscle and better supply chain and maintenance networks than Tesla.

bmw should theoretically be able to make good electric vehicles, but jaguar and porsche aren't making evs at scale. The new ipace will be a 20k car, the porsche was about 20k/year, and audi's etron something will not be available except for special order. I think they are being dragged into making evs, but there is a shortage of batteries at least at the current time.

Of course these companies can make great cars, but it goes against their expertise in gasoline drive trains, and their dealers will be significantly impacted by less maintenance on evs.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#114

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:30 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #110

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a graph on one of the pro-Tesla sites that basically showed that the Tesla debt is to scale with the rampup of the Model 3 production, and that it isn't out of proportion for the scale of what the production scale of the Model3. And the scale now is above profitability. Is that not true?

That is not true. Tesla still hasn't paid off its debt from the Model X, the Model S, the Gigafactory, or the Supercharger network. They might have managed to achieve positive cash flow with respect to Model 3 specific investments, but that doesn't mean they generating anywhere near the level of cash they need to pay off past debts.

I think that is an arguable point and at least we don't know what their profits are, but we'll know better after q3 earnings are out. If they are making the claimed 25-30% margin on current model 3's, making 50k of them a quarter at avg price of 60k, 50k60k.25, that's a car profit $750 million/quarter. That will pay down their debt at a rate 3 billion a year. I think this is why they said after q3 they will start being a real company, with q3 and q4 at the current rate they could be profitable and actually pay off debt. If all else fails they could sell more stock right now, but that only goes so far. I think they will make a significant profit by q4, and probably a good profit in q3.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#115

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:32 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #84

Tesla still isn't doing all that great on production.[1] They've been unable to sustain the 5,000 units a week output for the Model 3 line. They're back down around 4,000. The week to week numbers are all over the place, from 2000 to 6000. Auto plants are usually much more consistent. A Ford exec points out that their F-150 production line at the Rouge produces a truck every 55 seconds. You can take the plant tour in…

Tesla's tent is waterproof, more like a temporary structure that will be in use for years.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#116

Post by kidsnow » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:32 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #90

jaawn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which models did you look at? I don't remember a lot of models that are new to the market recently. I checked the Mazda CX-3 and the Nissan Leaf, and the Model 3 does appear to have crushed both of those based on first year numbers.

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort). It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production). The others handily beat them,…

Which year Lexus RX are you referring to? The Lexus RX SUV has been around a long time, and was originally based on a car platform which I believe was the Toyota Camry / Lexus ES platform.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#117

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:32 PM UTC

roywiggins wrote: post #2

The Kochs didn't make Elon tweet himself into an SEC sanction "Musk and the Tesla board have decided to keep Tesla public." Decided as in there was no plan in the first place

Yeah, that was stupid and an unforced error. Anyway, that seems to be close to being closed.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#118

Post by csours » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:36 PM UTC

1123581321 wrote: post #76

csours wrote: post #71

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor, any opinions are solely my own. From the linked article: > "And now NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safet... https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/national-highway-traffi... > "NHTSA does not distin…

The CNET article you linked says: “Over email, a Tesla spokeswoman did offer more explanation on the probability-of-injury statistic. NHTSA compiles raw injury data in a load of spreadsheets every year, and it computes the overall probability of injury, listing it as a Vehicle Safety Score in its published results. That's where Tesla pulled the data from, and you can check this year's results for yourself on regulati…

Disclaimer again: These are solely my own opinions.

> "I’m curious what you thought when you came across that part of the article."

Several things:

1. I think Tesla vehicles are very safe.

2. I think there are several reasons NHTSA does not rank vehicles on safety. Also NHTSA specifically does not allow companies to claim a specific rank using NHTSA data.

3. I think not all real world factors may be accounted for in tests.

4. I think tests get harder over time, so Tesla is well prepared for future tests.

5. I think Tesla has a history of bending the rules in their press releases, including making other safety claims that are not supported by the agencies they quote.

6. I think with autonomous vehicles we will be able to log safety incidents per user-mile in various conditions and have really comparable data - and it's a shame we don't already have that.

7. The score mentioned is based on tests, not real world data. Without real world data, you can't say whether a vehicle is actually safe or not. I can't speak for NHTSA, but I feel that is their point of view.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#119

Post by AnthonyMouse » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:36 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #13

> Tesla has achieved enormous results in ramping up its Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history. That defies my gut feel, so I checked on carsalesbase to confirm/refute. Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up... http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

> Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up...

The article is apparently referring to rate of change rather than absolute numbers.

Their numbers also compare favorably to other EVs, e.g. the numbers for the Model 3 from last month are about the same as the annual numbers for the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#120

Post by Latteland » Mon, Oct 15, 2018, 10:40 PM UTC

w1 wrote: post #48

bfwi wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the facts. You state that he can't buy out Tesla, which is true. But why does he need to buy out Tesla to cover their debt? On the contrary he would need to sell some of his Tesla (and perhaps SpaceX) stock and give the cash to Tesla to cover their debt.

Those are really good questions. I don't know what form a transfer of cash from Elon to Tesla like that would take. Tesla issuing new shares for him to buy? Honestly, on paper there isn't any reason why Tesla can't just sell additional shares to the market in general, not necessarily just to Elon, in order to get enough money to cover their upcoming debt payments. Elon has publicly said he won't sell shares because T…

You seem to have some reasonable answers about tesla, what do you think about tesla's increasing sales & production of model 3 producing postive cash flow, since they are now in the mass production and away from the thrashing around trying to increase production phase (and hopefully not digging a hole and burning it kind of like the poorly executed early "production hell"). If they make & sell 50k model 3s per quarter at 60k and make 25-30% margin, that's $750 million (50k60k.25). That is approaching a sustainable business if they produce $3 billion a year. Take out say a billion in infrastructure spending (new stores, super chargers, etc), that looks much better than losing 700 million a quarter. I thought they were losing money because of wasteful production ramup.