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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#101

Post by ericmay »

gebruikersnaam wrote: post #92
roenxi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

Which countries surrounding China are US-friendly?

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are 3 that make up a Pacific encirclement (probably the Philippines and perhaps Australia if you want to go that far). Typically that’s what people refer to when they say “surrounded” but obviously China isn’t completely surrounded. The reason these three are used in this context is because Chinese power projection assumes an outward eastern presence in the Pacific and not westward or northward.

Though ultimately this is of China’s own doing. They broke the “don’t interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake” rule with respect to the US and very rapidly turned the tide against themselves and now find that they are the ones making the mistake and seemingly unaware.

The mistake being supporting Putin, taking over Hong Kong prematurely, and pissing off the Philippines and Japan for no good reason. This has caused Pacific national to rally around America and has caused an American-skeptic Europe to unite strongly under NATO and turn China-skeptic. The whole “wolf-warrior” diplomacy thing was a massive fuck up.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#102

Post by [deleted] »

JasonFruit wrote: post #64
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

> It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. It's stupid and risky for either the US or China to escalate a war that threatens to become a global conflict between nuclear powers. I wish saner heads urging restraint would prevail.

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#103

Post by fuoqi »

refurb wrote: post #3

Meanwhile, China’s ruling party is intent on attracting inbound foreign capital. Somehow i think that may be a challenge. There may be money to be made in China, but if you never know if you can get it out thats going to put a damper on things.

They do not need foreign capital per se. They need foreign business expertise and technology in areas where domestic ones are not sufficient at the moment. For pure capital they have more than enough in US debt, maybe even too much, since they try to allocate as much of it as possible (e.g. using the one belt initiative) without launching RMB exchange rate into space.

With the mounting up US sanctions, trade wars, and "friend-shoring", China will have less and less interest in western investments.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#104

Post by wsc981 »

wkat4242 wrote: post #83
roenxi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

I think he meant that Russia is pretty much surrounded by NATO allies, excluding of course China and this is something Russia is not to happy about (stated this many times in the past as NATO was expanding).

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#105

Post by [deleted] »

TexanFeller wrote: post #65
ajvs wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk is that China becomes a pariah to the West, which much of their economic system depends on.

The US depends on China to a level where I'd say they own us, not the other way around. They play a large part in making almost every product we use in the US, without trade with them we're screwed.

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#106

Post by di4na »

adaml_623 wrote: post #7

I wonder what the billionaires do to get their money out? Do they pay people to travel with jewellery that gets sold for foreign currency once it's outside China? Do they overpay for imported goods and get the difference paid into a Swiss bank account? It's always interesting to me how really wealthy people pay for loopholes

They launder the Drug Cartels money. Chinese based scheme for capital flight have taken that market by offering low or even zero cut to the cartels.

Because the real client are the chinese individuals needing to get the money out. And they pay the cut.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-mexico-china-cartels-spec...

Cryptocurrency have been another big one. There are strong pointers that it is the main driver behind the rise of bitcoin. And possibly tether.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#107

Post by Convolutional »

diceduckmonk wrote: post #15
1letterunixname wrote: post #9

It's my opinion there are generally 4 kinds of Chinese UHNWIs: 1. Mainland with no interest in foreign investment 2. Mainland mostly with some foreign investments 3. Split between mainland and foreign 4. Trying to move mostly foreign while keeping some in mainland (generally to take care of family or business concerns back home) In the US as a more stable asset haven, hot real estate markets are usually where large p…

I mean technically people can’t own land in China, they’re just leasing it from the government. This assumption has been baked into real estate prices but people bid it up anyways.

> technically people can’t own land in China, they’re just leasing it from the government

So it works like land in the UK, which is all owned by the King of England, but which is "leased" from him?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#108

Post by pastacacioepepe »

roenxi wrote: post #62
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely.

Following this then it would make sense for both China and Russia to feel threatened and react accordingly. I would expect the US to react even harder if any of their "enemies" would setup a missile base in Mexico or Canada.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#109

Post by yucky »

Zigurd wrote: post #54
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Globalization is sponsored by the US, and the US could reverse that. Without US defense of oil shipping routes, China sucks oil through a long, thin straw from an unreliable partner. Just those two factors amount to material risk.

The Russia/China border isn't a very thin straw though.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#110

Post by chaostheory »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #91
andy_ppp wrote: post #34

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything China has ever said about invasion. To mount an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than Ukraine, and is not feasible anytime soon. In short, China cannot afford it, monetarily and they cannot afford the potential blowback in trade and investm…

Well, then it’s too bad that younger Chinese have no power at all in a dictatorship. The problem with your argument is that you’re assuming that whoever is leading China right now is rational. You would be right before Xi, but Xi is neither patient or rational.

The end of the one China, two systems was totally unnecessary and reckless. I’m sure others can come up with more examples

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