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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not necessarily. It describes 2nd order and above in contrast to the immediate effects of a decision. The 2nd order effect may be in 5s time or even immediate but not a direct consequence of the original action.
how is that not long term thinking?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not necessarily. It describes 2nd order and above in contrast to the immediate effects of a decision. The 2nd order effect may be in 5s time or even immediate but not a direct consequence of the original action.
how is that not long term thinking?
> how is that not long term thinking?
What does "long term" mean to you ... 5s (i.e. 5 seconds) is pretty short term to me.
IMO the problem is the perception that fast thinkers or fast decision makers are smart folks. I know a lots of people who would not give instant answers to problems, they will be always "I will come back to this, let me think through". They give much better solve, but take time. But we are surrounded by people who want fast solutions.
I agree with you that people who are quick to talk in meetings can sometimes incorrectly come across as smarter, but I caution you to completely discount speed.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not necessarily. It describes 2nd order and above in contrast to the immediate effects of a decision. The 2nd order effect may be in 5s time or even immediate but not a direct consequence of the original action.
how is that not long term thinking?
If someone says ban ICE vehicles so that we might have better air quality and reduced rate of climate change, have they taken into account what the economic, cultural and political ramifications of such legislation would be? They might have, someone might have, but definitely not everyone has. Who had "Texas secedes from the USA" on their list of possible outcomes of their long term plan for addressing climate change?
This is just "long term thinking". I would say the article isn't worth reading. But at least, it's a good reminder to focus on thinking about the long term consequences of actions/decisions.
Just because we will not discover those failures until after the implementation in a couple of weeks does not make my better solutions "long term thinking".
Long term thinking is "will this solution that will work perfectly fine right now, still be the right solution in 2023"
Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by economist Thomas Sowell[0] explores this in good detail, applying it to political and economic policies, in his book. Housing policies, medicare and today's problem of defund the police can be better analysed if the framework of second-order thinking is used to view the pros and cons of such policies and their subsequent ramifications. Second-order thinking is a great m…
> From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate hut at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.
[1]: https://www.amazon.com/Economics-One-Lesson-Shortest-Underst...
A better spin would be, "Stupid? Use this one weird trick (thinking, planning, and acting long-term) to outperform smart people every time!"
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I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…
'order' has many meanings in mathematics, and I'm not sure of the best metaphor that is actually called an order there, but when people talk colloquially about 'second order effects' etc. IME they mean something like a vertex v2 (doing something) in response to a change to v1, where there exists a vertex vj and edges (v1, vj) & (vj, v2) - and implicitly no edge (v1, v2). Higher 'orders' similarly extending the chain.…
Also, it's often practical to ignore 2nd order and higher terms, because then you have a linear function - something really easy to work with. Therefore, "2nd order effects" have effectively become synonymous to "non-linear effects".
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Sorry in advance, to be the goyim and ask: Do you have doubts in this privileged model of thinking, or you enjoy the power and then intellectualize the outcome. Because we as the stupid ones can "hurt ourselves" and we need the "wisdom" of historically proven "chosen" people with higher IQ, moral ground and knowledge. Right?
By the way, can a Muslim have an opinion about Jesus? They sure do. Can a Buddhist? Yes. Well... the man was a Jew and most of the history of antisemitism revolves around Christians pretending he wasn't a rabbi. So this ain't chosen anything I'm just saying what it is... the man was a Jewish rabbi who rebelled in a few good ways against the Hebrew norms... he was a rebel and I admire what he said and did.
This is not scorn on goyim. Frankly if you want it? I don't know what you Romans are still doing worshipping a Jew what, in the year 2022, but that's between you and God