Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50% • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#101

Post by dcolkitt » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

csulmone wrote: post #86

This analysis is flawed. People are paying a premium in the futures market to have exposure to BTC without having to acquire and hold physical bitcoins. There is a similar trend in other regulated exchange products like GBTC https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_na...

Exactly. The author says:

> You can’t lose your Bitcoins – you just keep them on chain, and no exchange going bust will affect your position.

You absolutely can lose your Bitcoins if your private keys are compromised. Large institutions can and do get hacked or have money embezzled all the time.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#102

Post by ashtonkem » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

Ariez wrote: post #67

ashtonkem wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Crashes are just discounts” is one of the more pernicious financial memes around.

I'm guessing you didn't buy any stocks around april last year? :(

I take it back, “you’re just jealous” is absolutely the most pernicious financial meme.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#103

Post by Hydraulix989 » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

ffggvv wrote: post #31

anm89 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happened to Amazon in the two cases where it has drawn down 90% from a high?

yes this analogy works because amazon ships billions in packages with almost a trillion in revenue and btc can be replicated by a sql database

I would suggest gaining additional technical familiarity about block chains if you genuinely believe they are equivalent to centralized relational databases. That's just flat-out incorrect and untrue.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#104

Post by freebuju » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

goda90 wrote: post #27

aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Why does this bother you? Most of the mining is done inside the Big Red wall anyways.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#105

Post by solosoyokaze » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #96

llcoolv wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the current world exchange currency requires 43 aircraft carriers and 6,185 nuclear warheads (+ all the support they need, thousands of very worhtwhile human lives a year, etc), any electricity consumption seems a small problem. Not to mention that the oil-to-electricity transition would require ridiculous investments anyway.

Is the hypothesis that the U.S. switching to Bitcoin as legal tender would let it liquidate its military?

The US would never switch to BTC as legal tender because they can't control the supply of BTC.

BTC is "clean" money in that it doesn't have the blood of millions and an imperialistic army powering it.

The energy usage by BTC is a drop in the bucket compared to the ecological damage wreaked by the US military.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#106

Post by justapassenger » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

solosoyokaze wrote: post #56

u10 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead it's being manipulated by a few large whales.

For a decade? There really is no alternative for where to park your money in 2021 unless you want to buy real-estate or stocks both of which come with their own massive set of problems.

So virtual asset, with multiple price swings, much wider than real estate during housing crisis, is the place to park money?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#107

Post by llcoolv » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #96

llcoolv wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the current world exchange currency requires 43 aircraft carriers and 6,185 nuclear warheads (+ all the support they need, thousands of very worhtwhile human lives a year, etc), any electricity consumption seems a small problem. Not to mention that the oil-to-electricity transition would require ridiculous investments anyway.

Is the hypothesis that the U.S. switching to Bitcoin as legal tender would let it liquidate its military?

It is not a hypothesis and it is not about the US. It is a fact that the current global currency is USD and it is enforced thanks to the role of the global policeman and unquestionable military might. However over the (many) years it has caused growing problems both inside and outside the US.

P.S. I think that the US was playing this role very well over the past 76 years and am perfectly happy with 90% of what has been done.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#108

Post by hobofan » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

xiphias2 wrote: post #38

I still remember the good times on HN when the front page didn't have links to ,,Trolly McTrollface''.

Strange, I don't. I remember HN as a page where many blog posts had a chance, independent of the pseudonymity and ridiculousness of their author's username.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#109

Post by loceng » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

"Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value."

The nuance in this is that its value also includes a financial incentive - the MLM structure inherent to Bitcoin, and that is truly what aligns everyone in Bitcoin - it's not for whatever other positives may exist as the primary glue, arguably 99%+ is the financial gain and potential that is the glue.

But yes, pro-Bitcoiners have been good at refining their narrative, the propaganda, conveniently ignoring the MLM structure whenever writing prose of how amazing Bitcoin is - while avoiding answering questions related to its pitfalls like with Bitcoin how do you implement policy and mechanisms like the Magnisky Act to block money of known bad actors as an economic punishment and attempt to sway their bad actions - before needing to perhaps (hopefully not) escalate actions into the physical, destruction-violence mechanism?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#110

Post by Shorel » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

marricks wrote: post #32

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, i…

From the article:

>"In our case [...] R ≈ 50% based on what happened after MtGox collapsed."

He is counting on another MtGox. Black swan events are not certain, by definition.