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Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

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Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#101

Post by varjag »

thomasz wrote: post #83
pg_bot wrote: post #56

You might not lose your job, but you may see your hours reduced or you might not get the opportunity in the first place. Technically the employment numbers don't change, but you shouldn't think of of minimum wage employees like salaried employees. Minimum wage earners can lose fractional percentages of their jobs unlike salaried employees. Most proponents of raising the minimum wage cite the Card & Krueger paper whic…

Countries with a social-democratic (Sweden, Norway) or conservative-corporatist (Germany) welfare state traditionally do not have minimum wage laws, because relatively strong unions and a somewhat robust social safety net have the same effect - you won't find someone willing to work for less than social security benefits which creates a lower bound. As soon as these states move towards a more liberal welfare model (U…

Norway have selective regulation, mandatory minimum wages in certain trades and low income occupations.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#102

Post by Romanulus »

gl00pp wrote: post #95
xinsight wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is difficult, then it's not a very good business. Serious question: Why would you want to run a business that can only survive by paying people poverty wages?

This is America.

Amen. Imagine having to pay people to answer phones _more_ money.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#104

Post by hinkley »

ambicapter wrote: post #99
sobhaobnONJ wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truthfully I agree but I'd argue this seems more like a reason to decouple healthcare from employment entirely. Such as with socialized medical coverage like you suggest.

Large US Companies are incentivized to keep healthcare something they solely provide because it ties their employee's health coverage to their employment status, putting pressure on them to keep their job or face paying their hospital bills in full.

Which in almost any other conversation would be called extortion.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#105

Post by michaelmrose »

killjoywashere wrote: post #66
scarejunba wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you mind quickly summarizing what that plot is telling us? I looked at it but it looks like I've got to read more of the paper before I understand it.

From the paper: ‘The simplest and most commonly used method to detect publication selection is an informal examination of a funnel plot’ (Sutton et al. 2000a: 1574). A funnel graph is a scatter diagram of precision versus estimated effect (such as estimated elasticities, regression coefficients or partial correlation coefficients). Precision is best measured by the inverse of the standard error (1/Se). As the name su…

This method of quoting is unreadable on mobile

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#106

Post by tyri_kai_psomi »

xinsight wrote: post #90
roflchoppa2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is it difficult for your wifes business to make money, and pay your employees at $15 (or more)? Serious question.

If it is difficult, then it's not a very good business. Serious question: Why would you want to run a business that can only survive by paying people poverty wages?

I don't mean this offensively, but I had to roll my eyes at this one. This is the exact type of question I would expect from a tech startup focused board.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#107

Post by gowld »

apcragg wrote: post #92
pge wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plot is showing that there is a negative selection bias in the reporting of stories about minimum wage. That is, that stories suggesting that increasing minimum wage has negative effects (increases unemployment, etc) are overreported relative to stories showing a positive effect from an increase in minimum wage. I am only repeating what the paper says; I don't claim to have validated their methodology or sources.

That is an incomplete summary. Their conclusion is that despite this larger than normal selection bias, the minimum wage appears to have no impact on unemployment. The paper's abstract, discussion, and summary all mention this as part of the central thesis - why leave it out?

It's not an HN commenter's obligation to post everything a reader might want to see, certainly not highly technical point about the distinction between "this paper claims that evidence for an employment effect is over-reported" and "this paper claims that employment effect is approximately 0". They linked to the whole paper for the curious, and answered a particular question about it.

Also, the use of "despite" does not logically fit the contents of (my) grandparent poster and parent poster, as grandparent poster didn't claim mention employment as a possible positive effect of minimum wage, and even within context of my parent post, "beyond" is a better word choice that n "despite"

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#108

Post by gowld »

michaelmrose wrote: post #105
killjoywashere wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the paper: ‘The simplest and most commonly used method to detect publication selection is an informal examination of a funnel plot’ (Sutton et al. 2000a: 1574). A funnel graph is a scatter diagram of precision versus estimated effect (such as estimated elasticities, regression coefficients or partial correlation coefficients). Precision is best measured by the inverse of the standard error (1/Se). As the name su…

This method of quoting is unreadable on mobile

>‘The simplest and most commonly used method to detect publication selection is an informal examination of a funnel plot’ (Sutton et al. 2000a: 1574). A funnel graph is a scatter diagram of precision versus estimated effect (such as estimated elasticities, regression coefficients or partial correlation coefficients). Precision is best measured by the inverse of the standard error (1/Se).

> As the name suggests, the expected shape is an inverted funnel — in the absence of publication selection. When there is no publication selection, estimates should vary randomly and symmetrically around the ‘true’ population effect. Because small-sample studies with typically less precision form the base of the graph, the plot will be more spread out there than at its top. However, it is the graph’s symmetry (or its absence) that is crucial for assessing publication selection (see Figure 1).

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#109

Post by michaelmrose »

helpPeople wrote: post #52
mullingitover wrote: post #9

Minimum wage isn't just flat for a decade, it's not being adjusted for inflation. This means minimum wage workers have been getting a pay cut over time. The debate isn't just whether we should raise minimum wage, it's whether we should be cutting it. By allowing it to remain stagnant we're making the default decision to cut.

Not sure your area, but unskilled labor goes for 15$/hr in metro Detroit. You cannot get people to show up for less than that. Source, wife owns a business and that's going rate to answer phones.

Because people can't live much of a life on less. This is especially true of health care which in places is free at some level of poverty and ruinously expensive at other levels. At some points working harder actually earns you greater poverty.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#110

Post by gowld »

helpPeople wrote: post #52
mullingitover wrote: post #9

Minimum wage isn't just flat for a decade, it's not being adjusted for inflation. This means minimum wage workers have been getting a pay cut over time. The debate isn't just whether we should raise minimum wage, it's whether we should be cutting it. By allowing it to remain stagnant we're making the default decision to cut.

Not sure your area, but unskilled labor goes for 15$/hr in metro Detroit. You cannot get people to show up for less than that. Source, wife owns a business and that's going rate to answer phones.

Could you expand on the relation of that fact to the topic of minimum wage? Is $15/hr above or below Detroit minimum wage?
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