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Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

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Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#61

Post by Lavery »

pg_bot wrote: post #56

You might not lose your job, but you may see your hours reduced or you might not get the opportunity in the first place. Technically the employment numbers don't change, but you shouldn't think of of minimum wage employees like salaried employees. Minimum wage earners can lose fractional percentages of their jobs unlike salaried employees. Most proponents of raising the minimum wage cite the Card & Krueger paper whic…

The countries you cite are able to have a minimum wage of zero because it's coupled with a robust social safety net (sometimes along with other backstops--Norway, for instance, is heavily unionized). This pairing is important, and is absent in the US.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#62

Post by whiddershins »

I haven’t read the article. Every discussion about minimum wage seems so murky and confusing I think it is overwhelmingly likely this article won’t increase my knowledge of the topic in a meaningful way.

But chiming in here that the increase in NYC has not had anywhere near enough time for the effects to propagate.

Business owners aren’t perfectly rational AI constructs that respond in real-time to every input. People tend to gradually and iteratively change their employment practices while keeping an eye on their margins and profits.

It’s going to take a long time, if ever, for us to figure out the effects of minimum wage, but it certainly has affected my hiring practices so I’m sure it’s having some effect.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#63

Post by FabHK »

andymockli wrote: post #53
FabHK wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not a straw man. Austerity has very much been promoted as a cure; it was not an inevitable consequence of the economic situation. The debate is maybe best exemplified by the debate between Krugman ("against austerity") and Reinhart/Rogoff ("pro austerity"). > Nobel laureate Paul Krugman refused to back down in a dispute with Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff over a 2010 paper t…

To add to your links: https://contrakrugman.com/

Thanks. It's good to challenge your views, so I'll listen in a bit. However, I must say that as an ex-libertarian (that left the creed because of its serious flaws) I am apprehensive about the neutrality of a show hosted by Tim Wood, a "Rothbardian anarcho-capitalist and paleolibertarian" (Wikipedia) that's received fellowships from the Institute for Humane Studies (funded by the Scaifes, Kochs, etc.).

EDIT to add:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Woods

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Humane_Studies

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#64

Post by pge »

scarejunba wrote: post #33
jjoonathan wrote: post #5

The inverted funnel plot of Doucouliagos and Stanley is especially useful once discussions about elasticity at the low end of the labor market reach the "you're biased -- no you're biased!" stage: https://www.ctdol.state.ct.us/lweab/Doucougliagos%20&%20Stan...

Would you mind quickly summarizing what that plot is telling us? I looked at it but it looks like I've got to read more of the paper before I understand it.

The plot is showing that there is a negative selection bias in the reporting of stories about minimum wage. That is, that stories suggesting that increasing minimum wage has negative effects (increases unemployment, etc) are overreported relative to stories showing a positive effect from an increase in minimum wage.

I am only repeating what the paper says; I don't claim to have validated their methodology or sources.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#65

Post by bart_spoon »

sobhaobnONJ wrote: post #57
mullingitover wrote: post #9

Minimum wage isn't just flat for a decade, it's not being adjusted for inflation. This means minimum wage workers have been getting a pay cut over time. The debate isn't just whether we should raise minimum wage, it's whether we should be cutting it. By allowing it to remain stagnant we're making the default decision to cut.

I don't understand why this isn't a red herring. Minimum wage may be remaining stagnant but total employee compensation has been rising steadily, it's just that most of that compensation is in the form of spending on employee benefits like insurance. If people quit expecting employers to provide them with anything except for cold hard cash then you'd likely see wages increasing with time. To expand a bit more on this…

Increased spending on employee insurance is due to increasing healthcare costs. Even if companies are spending more on their employees healthcare, employees are still paying more on healthcare than ever before. So, that still means less money available for everything that isn't healthcare, and is functionally equivalent to a pay cut.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#66

Post by killjoywashere »

scarejunba wrote: post #33
jjoonathan wrote: post #5

The inverted funnel plot of Doucouliagos and Stanley is especially useful once discussions about elasticity at the low end of the labor market reach the "you're biased -- no you're biased!" stage: https://www.ctdol.state.ct.us/lweab/Doucougliagos%20&%20Stan...

Would you mind quickly summarizing what that plot is telling us? I looked at it but it looks like I've got to read more of the paper before I understand it.

From the paper:

  ‘The simplest and most commonly used method to detect publication
  selection is an informal examination of a funnel plot’ (Sutton et al. 2000a:
  1574). A funnel graph is a scatter diagram of precision versus estimated effect
  (such as estimated elasticities, regression coefficients or partial correlation
  coefficients). Precision is best measured by the inverse of the standard error
  (1/Se).

  As the name suggests, the expected shape is an inverted funnel — in the
  absence of publication selection. When there is no publication selection, 
  estimates should vary randomly and symmetrically around the ‘true’ population
  effect. Because small-sample studies with typically less precision form the
  base of the graph, the plot will be more spread out there than at its top.
  However, it is the graph’s symmetry (or its absence) that is crucial for
  assessing publication selection (see Figure 1).

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#67

Post by poke111 »

jonhendry18 wrote: post #39
jerf wrote: post #27

What is the time frame for these claims? The last few years when the new minimum wages are coming in are also times of dropping unemployment. The area I live in has not been raising minimum wages any, and the local "minimum wage" has nevertheless become a de facto 11-12$/hour for zero-skill jobs just due to a tight labor market. If you happen to time your raising of the minimum wage to when the market was tightening…

The point I think is that the anti-increase people would have predicted that raising the minimum wage would be such a dire threat to business that it would decrease employment regardless of the wider economy.

Not exactly. If the market-clearing price for low-skill labor is already above the minimum wage, it will have no effect. If the market price is far below the minimum wage, it will have a large effect - positive for the workers with jobs, negative for the ones who are priced out or have their hours cut.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#68

Post by smileysteve »

noja wrote: post #55
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We inflation-adjust social security benefits annually, we could also do the same for minimum wage.

Would that defeat the point of inflation?

If anything, that would enforce it more.

Where the point of inflation is to force people to spend or invest their money today over keeping it as a store of value.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#69

Post by [deleted] »

dv_dt wrote: post #23
Pigo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read reports of Target, and similar companies, cutting back hours of many employees. I take such reports as anecdotal, but I didn't catch them talking about this in the article at all.

I think the unethical part we get into with Target/Walmart/et al is the staffing of multiple shifts of part time work when it's obvious by the numbers that they're avoiding paying benefits for the hiring of fewer full time workers. The systemic question here is if we should allow it to be a financial advantage for companies to do that - especially large profitable ones with a footprint all over our nation.

[deleted]

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#70

Post by d357r0y3r »

FabHK wrote: post #34
d357r0y3r wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And like the groups that promote austerity as a cure for economic woes, they have been proven wrong. This is a strawman. Austerity isn't a cure, it's a consequence. If you spend too much and have too much debt, you can't borrow more to make the problem go away; you're just delaying the inevitable.

No, it's not a straw man. Austerity has very much been promoted as a cure; it was not an inevitable consequence of the economic situation. The debate is maybe best exemplified by the debate between Krugman ("against austerity") and Reinhart/Rogoff ("pro austerity"). > Nobel laureate Paul Krugman refused to back down in a dispute with Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff over a 2010 paper t…

Krugman doesn't believe that there's any problem with unlimited debt, so of course, he's not going to want austerity. Why would you make sacrifices when you get everything you want, today, for free?

There are consequences for overspending and overborrowing. We don't have a way to paper over that. You can pay today or you can tomorrow with interest.

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