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Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

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Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#101

Post by pfdietz »

usrusr wrote: post #36
afarrell wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For this, wouldn't it be better to pump water onto the top of a bunch of mountains in Wales? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station , but more.

Pumped water does not scale well, there are only so many mountain valleys to block. And I'd rather keep a few in a somewhat natural state (a magic "no more mountain valleys in exchange for instantly solved climate change" would be attractive nonetheless, even though I write this from a very nice, unblocked mountain valley). But when your concern is just seasonal storage for heating, you don't need pumped storage. Jus…

Actually, there is enormous potential capacity for pumped storage around the world.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#102

Post by pfdietz »

strainer wrote: post #82
riffraff wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point, isn't it? Batteries are not a panacea for energy storage needs, even with a doubling of their capacity.

There is no requirement for a panacea or super neat developments that allow individual households to store seasons worth of privately generated electricity. For seasonal and sporadic production shortfalls in solar and wind generation, biofuels and electrically synthesized fuels can fill in. On the occasions where carbon-neutral fuel resources are insufficient - gas generation can remain as fallback (increasingly rare…

And with atmospheric CO2 capture, CO2 released by intermittent fallback fossil combustion can be scrubbed at a rate well below the peak release rate at the turbines.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#103

Post by pfdietz »

riffraff wrote: post #38
WanderPanda wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wont introducing net energy to the earth add to the warming?

I may be incorrect, but space based solar would catch energy that would reach the earth anyway, basically shading us. So it would probably be more or less adding the same energy, but sending it to the ground rather than dispersing some in the stratosphere.

That's incorrect, sorry.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#104

Post by pfdietz »

laurencerowe wrote: post #70
new_realist wrote: post #8

For long term energy storage batteries are not ideal. Their costs increase linearly with time of storage and amount of storage. Peak shaving is an OK use for them, though.

I'm not sure long term storage will ever make sense since the capital costs are amortized across far fewer cycles. Once a year rather than once a day means 365x the capital cost. Instead over-provisioning of green generation and increasing grid capacity (to avoid risk of local week long lulls in generation) seems a much better bet.

So what is needed for that is a solution that trades lower efficiency for lower capital cost. Hydrogen burned in gas turbines may be that solution, if the cost of mediocre efficiency electrolyzers can be made low enough.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#105

Post by Animats »

It irks me to see predictions talked about as if past events. But this is a more solid guess than most.

Actual progress has been impressive: 85% reduction in the 2010-18 period, says the article. Graph here: [1] Getting another 50% in 10 years can probably be done from manufacturing scale alone. Giant battery pack factories seem to be going up all over.

This is something that ought to be almost totally automated, but doesn't yet seem to be. You're making large numbers of identical units for years per model, the best case for automation. Somebody will get that right soon.

Do we get more energy density? 2x more, and gasoline cars are toast.

[1] https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-b...

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#106

Post by toomuchtodo »

ridewinter wrote: post #78
toomuchtodo wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maxwell dry battery electrode tech [1] is going to rapidly drive down cell costs (while increasing energy density) for Tesla. I posit this is also how they intend to pack 200kw of storage into the 2020 Roadster. Disclaimer: TSLA investor [1] https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/02/tesla-buys-maxwell-to-...

If this tech allows BEVs a significantly higher range it would be a game changer. Currently the range is about the same as gasoline cars with a longer refueling time. For your average consumer that’s not an improvement. But if I can go 800 miles per charge all the sudden my BEV looks like an iPhone X compared to your flipphone traditional vehicle.

Model S and X with the new Raven drivetrain is already pushing 370 miles of range. Very few people are going to drive 4 hours at a time without a break, definitely not going 600-800 between stops, although I could see this as beneficial to the Tesla Semi and their truck offering (where higher energy density is crucial).

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#108

Post by Gustomaximus »

Animats wrote: post #105

It irks me to see predictions talked about as if past events. But this is a more solid guess than most. Actual progress has been impressive: 85% reduction in the 2010-18 period, says the article. Graph here: [1] Getting another 50% in 10 years can probably be done from manufacturing scale alone. Giant battery pack factories seem to be going up all over. This is something that ought to be almost totally automated, but…

Halve the cost and I suspect energy utilities as we know them are in trouble too.

Currently solar is a no brainer in my country of Australia. Typically around a 6 year payoff for a 20 year benifit.

Batteries are about break over ~10 years payback. But if you could half that it's becomes something many people will do. And once that starts happening it's a death spiral for utilities as they will have a every reducing customer base for a business with large fixed costs. As they put these expenses onto a shrinking base it only encourages more people to swap.

So for a country with a large suburban population that has the solar battery option this is going to hit utilities hard. Their market could shrink to largely providing high density areas where households dont have the roof space to generate their own power.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#109

Post by kragen »

josmala wrote: post #41

The numbers given in article the world wide battery installations are predicted in 2040 to cover about 20 minutes of world electricity consumption assuming it would be equal close to 2016 figures, where majority of world is in relative poverty. It definitely is at least two orders of magnitude too little to stop climate change. People assume the reducing emissions would stop climate change. Nope, emissions are only r…

Agreed, the humans will need enough short-term energy storage to cover several hours of their energy use to transition it mostly to solar, which is probably what they will do.

However, you are forgetting about atmospheric carbon capture.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#110

Post by kragen »

Brakenshire wrote: post #93
kragen wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty much guaranteed: even current photovoltaic pricing, let alone another factor of ten down the learning curve, means energy in the daytime is super cheap to free. This creates an immense market opportunity for utility-scale storage.

And for finding ways of using energy at peak times. I could imagine everyone charging their cars at work if it turns out the electricity is cheap at that time.

Absolutely! I think demand response is going to be even bigger than storage; see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20664835 for more thoughts on this.
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