Live data from Hacker News

Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

about.bnef.com

61–70 of 134 posts

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day as long as it's not cloudy for a week

Did the person sizing the solar panels in this hypothetical forget that it was sometimes cloudy? Seems a rather silly mistake. Wouldn't they have access to data predicting to within fairly narrow margins how often this would occur statistically? I mean if cloudy weather reduces the output by a factor of 4 then you don't really need to bring long term storage into the matter to have trouble if you're going size everyt…

You are going to build panels that will provide enough energy for one day on the day it is the least sunny at the site? What do you do with the excess on sunny days?

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#62
post #31

No companies listed in article - anyone have a list of companies developing new battery technology? Been something I've tried researching in the past with little luck

This is just armchair analysis, but my perception from easily Googleable sources on mining & resource companies for battery tech is that it doesn’t actually look like a good investment for casual investors. The lithium market seems crazy and susceptible to high volatility from Chinese stockpiles. Meanwhile, battery technologies, even at the high end, are becoming rapidly commoditized and experiencing price wars, mean…

Seems to me that an immature market that is on its way to becoming a commodity is a great time to invest, as opposed to post commoditization

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#63
post #39
post #31

No companies listed in article - anyone have a list of companies developing new battery technology? Been something I've tried researching in the past with little luck

Maxwell, now owned by Tesla. I think Tesla will become a big player in the battery tech space

Maxwell dry battery electrode tech [1] is going to rapidly drive down cell costs (while increasing energy density) for Tesla. I posit this is also how they intend to pack 200kw of storage into the 2020 Roadster.

Disclaimer: TSLA investor

[1] https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/02/tesla-buys-maxwell-to-...

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#64
post #15

For long term energy storage batteries are not ideal. Their costs increase linearly with time of storage and amount of storage. Peak shaving is an OK use for them, though.

Luckily, there's plenty of carbon to offset (peakers) by deploying batteries before we have to worry about long term (seasonal) storage. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the electrification of transportation ends up making batteries be the default "long term" storage option by using EVs as flexible grid storage. There's going to be 100x more batteries rolling around than what you'd need to stabilize the grid (e.g.…

Somehow, I think people waking up to find out that their EV doesn't have the charge they expected it to have will put that idea in its place.

The idea that someone with an EV will allow the power company to randomly deplete its battery is a fantasy.

Edit: We're much more likely to see home standby generators put to that use, or home batteries (connected to solar) put to that use.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#65
post #60
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think that this is a meaningless metric. It seems to me that we need at least enough storage to last for a night. Realistically we need enough storage to cover reduced production and increased demand through winter.

> It seems to me that we need at least enough storage to last for a night. That's only the case if all your generation is from photovoltaic solar. The wind doesn't stop blowing at night, and you need a long drought for hydro to stop producing power.

Yeah good, then we need enough storage to last half a night and good enough transmission lines to get wind power from wherever it's windy to where the power is needed. That's still a lot more storage than 20 minutes.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#66
post #31

No companies listed in article - anyone have a list of companies developing new battery technology? Been something I've tried researching in the past with little luck

In the united states the main commercial option for non-lithium batteries is Nant who is developing zinc-air batteries (but for usage alongside lithium)

Then there is Redflow out of Australia and Voltstorage in Germany.

Not sure on vanadium flow batteries

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating. As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter. That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the sta…

Another "paradigm" is that full and empty batteries are shipped between regions by boat or truck as needed instead of just waiting 6 months for the planet to move through the cosmos.

Whew, that doesn't sound feasible, but I'd love for someone to do the math for me. It seems much more realistic to build HVDC lines from equatorial regions to the temperate zones, but even that is not very popular anymore as far as I know due to cost and NIMBYs.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did the person sizing the solar panels in this hypothetical forget that it was sometimes cloudy? Seems a rather silly mistake. Wouldn't they have access to data predicting to within fairly narrow margins how often this would occur statistically? I mean if cloudy weather reduces the output by a factor of 4 then you don't really need to bring long term storage into the matter to have trouble if you're going size everyt…

You are going to build panels that will provide enough energy for one day on the day it is the least sunny at the site? What do you do with the excess on sunny days?

Whatever seems useful. Or do the inverse of the power satellite idea: send the excess energy to space as microwaves.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just armchair analysis, but my perception from easily Googleable sources on mining & resource companies for battery tech is that it doesn’t actually look like a good investment for casual investors. The lithium market seems crazy and susceptible to high volatility from Chinese stockpiles. Meanwhile, battery technologies, even at the high end, are becoming rapidly commoditized and experiencing price wars, mean…

Seems to me that an immature market that is on its way to becoming a commodity is a great time to invest, as opposed to post commoditization

They caveat their comment with "casual investors".

To win, you'll probably have to have a quite wide basket or get lucky and pick the right companies.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#70

For long term energy storage batteries are not ideal. Their costs increase linearly with time of storage and amount of storage. Peak shaving is an OK use for them, though.

I'm not sure long term storage will ever make sense since the capital costs are amortized across far fewer cycles. Once a year rather than once a day means 365x the capital cost. Instead over-provisioning of green generation and increasing grid capacity (to avoid risk of local week long lulls in generation) seems a much better bet.
Post reply on HN