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Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

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Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#21

For long term energy storage batteries are not ideal. Their costs increase linearly with time of storage and amount of storage. Peak shaving is an OK use for them, though.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

Short term = diurnal

Long term = weeks to seasonal

Batteries, especially that sort of cheaper battery, would be great for diurnal load leveling.

Long term storage is probably more hydrogen and mass thermal storage. The tradeoff would be capital cost per unit stored energy vs. efficiency.

Storage competes with and complements two other approaches: overinstallation of generation capacity w. curtailment, and dispatchable demand.

Curtailment involves installing more wind and PV than you need, and curtailing its output when supply > demand. A study in Minnesota found that this was cheaper than adding storage up to about 70% of the electrical power supply. Of course this creates dirt-cheap power during the curtailed periods that people can find use for (industrial thermal storage, production of hydrogen in low capital cost membraneless electrolyzers).

Dispatchable demand would involve redesign of industrial processes to operate in fits and starts. For example, today's aluminum cells do not respond well to inconstant power sources (their either freeze up or overheat and damage the lining). This was fine when the cheapest power sources were baseload sources. But perhaps an aluminum technology could be developed that would be more forgiving of variation and outages, to exploit the new situation where intermittent power is becoming the cheapest.

Of course, another approach is to move those industrial processes down close to the equator, where there is little seasonal variation in insolation. High latitude countries may become industrially disadvantaged in a renewable powered world.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#22
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

The sun does not shine every day. And not equally throughout all seasons. As the percentage of renewables increases so will the gaps on bad days/weeks. The differences can be dramatic and must be compensated some way. https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm?source=solar-wind&yea...

I'm familiar with the concept of seasons, just as I'm familiar with the concept of yearly boat trips.

But lots of people live near the equator, just like lots of people don't really ever go for long drives so rather than focus on one particularly difficult case and then giving up I was looking for some kind of rough quantification of the problem.

In analogy I'm just wondering whether the equivalent of the "daily commute" for most of the planet can be easily covered with current tech at a cost less than curent alternatives and we only need to worry about a comparitively small fraction that remains, which we could apply those savings to dealing with.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#23
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

Short term = diurnal Long term = weeks to seasonal Batteries, especially that sort of cheaper battery, would be great for diurnal load leveling. Long term storage is probably more hydrogen and mass thermal storage. The tradeoff would be capital cost per unit stored energy vs. efficiency. Storage competes with and complements two other approaches: overinstallation of generation capacity w. curtailment, and dispatchabl…

Multi day storage is always an issue. X kWh stored over Y hours takes X kWh of storage but X/Y kw of generation capacity. Start talking 50 hours and the cost difference becomes huge.

PS: Though batteries inherently have some emergency storage capacity as daily deep discharge is inefficient.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#24

This is not happening, this is larger than the amount of energy demand in the US and renewables forecasted

Many such forecasts have been embarrassingly wrong as of late, grossly underestimating the pace of renewable installation.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#25

For long term energy storage batteries are not ideal. Their costs increase linearly with time of storage and amount of storage. Peak shaving is an OK use for them, though.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

  What percentage of our 
  global storage needs do
  you believe are "long
  term" in this dichotomy?
Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating.

As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter.

That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the status quo, which is burning natural gas for heating during winter.

However, replacing my (fairly modest AFAIK) £222-per-year gas bill would need ~150 Tesla Power Wall packs, costing several times the value of the home being heated.

[1] https://pvoutput.org/aggregate.jsp?p=0&id=4768&sid=3764&t=m&...

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#26

If this prediction turns out to be true, it would be a real boon for reducing carbon emissions. Changing from 7% to 40% of electrical generation is a big deal. I'm sure it's not enough, but it sounds like a start.

It's pretty much guaranteed: even current photovoltaic pricing, let alone another factor of ten down the learning curve, means energy in the daytime is super cheap to free. This creates an immense market opportunity for utility-scale storage.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

Short term = diurnal Long term = weeks to seasonal Batteries, especially that sort of cheaper battery, would be great for diurnal load leveling. Long term storage is probably more hydrogen and mass thermal storage. The tradeoff would be capital cost per unit stored energy vs. efficiency. Storage competes with and complements two other approaches: overinstallation of generation capacity w. curtailment, and dispatchabl…

> Long term storage is probably more hydrogen and mass thermal storage.

I was thinking about how multiple big heating packs[1] would stack up. Seems the Wikipedia reference[2] has the topic well covered. Tricky but possible. And apparently (duh) not a novel idea by any means[3][4].

Though the references I could find were mostly for home-size installations or for actual heating packs. Here in Norway we're blessed with lots of mountains with lakes, so we can do pumped hydro for latent storage. But for flatter countries (say our neighbors Denmark), is grid-size PCM storage viable?

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_acetate

[2]: https://books.google.com/books?id=EsfcWE5lX40C&q=latent+heat...

[3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13594...

[4]: https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v221y2018icp522-534.htm...

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#28
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sun does not shine every day. And not equally throughout all seasons. As the percentage of renewables increases so will the gaps on bad days/weeks. The differences can be dramatic and must be compensated some way. https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm?source=solar-wind&yea...

I'm familiar with the concept of seasons, just as I'm familiar with the concept of yearly boat trips. But lots of people live near the equator, just like lots of people don't really ever go for long drives so rather than focus on one particularly difficult case and then giving up I was looking for some kind of rough quantification of the problem. In analogy I'm just wondering whether the equivalent of the "daily comm…

Equatorial weather patterns are not all that relevant because most of the energy consumption is at higher latitudes which experience significant seasonality.

And your daily commute/boat towing "analogy" is not really helpful because those problems are not comparable. Boat towing is an optional luxury and can be worked around at a slight inconvenience by visiting charging stations. Lack of long-term storage on the other hand can't be worked around, it requires double-spending to keep dispatchable fossil fuel plants in standby.

And I don't think there is a dichotomy either. Variability exists on a continuous time-scale from seconds to seasons, so storage solutions can expand along that continuum.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#29

If this prediction turns out to be true, it would be a real boon for reducing carbon emissions. Changing from 7% to 40% of electrical generation is a big deal. I'm sure it's not enough, but it sounds like a start.

It seems a little conservative to me - I'd expect it to do that earlier than 2040.

Re: Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Is this at the "electric cars can't do my daily commute" or "electric cars can't tow my boat 600 miles without stopping, once a year" stage? Seems like most of the world just needs solar to last until the next day with a decent chunk of that power needed immediately after the sun sets and any wind power available could get s…

What percentage of our global storage needs do you believe are "long term" in this dichotomy? Solar output in the UK varies substantially between summer and winter [1] - as does demand for heating. As a Brit with solar panels, it would be super neat if I could generate power during the summer, store it for 6 months, and use it for heating during winter. That would reduce my direct carbon emissions relative to the sta…

For this, wouldn't it be better to pump water onto the top of a bunch of mountains in Wales?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station, but more.

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