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Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

42floors.com

251–260 of 308 posts

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#251
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boulder is weird... I was all set to go there, and got a better offer in Bend, Oregon, which is significantly cheaper in terms of housing. I'm kind of happy about how it turned out. I didn't like the idea of turning over such a large portion of my paycheck to a landlord. Things are not cheap here in Bend, but I have more of a feeling of getting in earlier, while things are still growing.

I loved Bend when I visited a decade ago. It has a lot of the benefits of Boulder plus an ocean not too far away (but further from an airport and major metropolitan area). Didn't seem like much business was happening when I visited, though (other than tourism). Is there a tech scene now?

> Is there a tech scene now?

Yeah - it's small, but seems to be taking off.

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/223997

I had some doubts about moving back to the US from Italy, but so far we're really happy in Bend. We'll see how the winter goes.

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#252
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boulder is weird... I was all set to go there, and got a better offer in Bend, Oregon, which is significantly cheaper in terms of housing. I'm kind of happy about how it turned out. I didn't like the idea of turning over such a large portion of my paycheck to a landlord. Things are not cheap here in Bend, but I have more of a feeling of getting in earlier, while things are still growing.

I loved Bend when I visited a decade ago. It has a lot of the benefits of Boulder plus an ocean not too far away (but further from an airport and major metropolitan area). Didn't seem like much business was happening when I visited, though (other than tourism). Is there a tech scene now?

[deleted]

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in West Oakland and the favorite game is still "fireworks or gunshots". Its a great place to live if you're in your 20s, but I wouldn't want to move my family here. Maybe up by Berkeley is better?

I have lived in West Oakland and currently live in Adam's Point (both in Oakland's borders) and it feels like an entirely different city.

Ah yeah, I can see why! But I'm a cheapo startup founder. My safety for a thousand bucks a month? Sure I'll give it up!

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#254
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wowza! So at $140k/year the effective tax rate in CA is around 40%? (Or maybe my math is bad.) EDIT: And some that may not all be income tax? E.g. in Ontario one pays fed income tax, provincial income tax, Canada Pension Plan, Employment Insurance, and a few other I may have forgotten. In London, UK one pays income tax, national insurance, and council tax (property tax paid by property occupiers).

At that income level, the federal tax is %28 and CA is %9.3, so about %37 yeah. Max is 33+12 = %45. There's also ~9% sales tax in most parts of california but every time you go out you better tip %20. And for all that, we get to pay for our own health care and retirements too!

I said effective tax rate not marginal tax rate. It looks like US and CA income tax has brackets, so even if your marginal rate is 37% you won't be paying that rate on 100% of your income.

That said, I'd believe that if you include expenses like health care your net pay would be ~40% less than your gross pay. :P

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Boulder, I'm curious as to why? I'm seeing the other side of the coin, where getting hired is proving very difficult. The joke here is even the dirtbag climbers have PHDs.

It might be hard to get hired writing perl in Boulder (I checked out your profile) but if you're interested in other languages, I can do some intros for you. Or you could always move to Amsterdam: http://blog.booking.com/

Having visited Amsterdam, I'd be curious to live there on a permanent basis, although I am also in love with mountains (which the entire country lacks...) - as I think a lot of people who end up in Boulder can relate to.

Booking does have a somewhat strange reputation when it comes to their coding style, I'm not sure if I could really come on board fully with their workflow.

Ha. I haven't gotten a Perl job in Boulder since 1999, and I don't know if I've seen one posted since then, either. My expertise is a little broader than just slinging Perl, fortunately, but I do find it to be a most agreeable language to a creative, visually-oriented mind.

What am I referring to is the scenario where you can apply for a job, and rarely even expect to hear back from a potential employer, as the total number of people also applying makes that impossible. This, I don't think, is very different from other areas of the country.

Google moving to Boulder is sort of a mixed bag, and there is a number of people who are not looking forward to them coming.

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#256
post #202
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bet is that Baltimore is poised to become a big tech hub. There was a ton of money spent in the tech sector after 2001 and that is tapering off now and you have a bunch of engineers with 10 years experience and the low cost of living in Baltimore which makes for a lot of opportunity to try things. The city also has a very Art oriented quirky culture like SF had before it priced out all the creative people and a lo…

Speaking of Baltimore, as someone who knows almost nothing about it other than what I saw watching "Ace of Cakes" and from what I see when the city comes up in the news, I came across this map today [1], which left me wondering what is going on there. It's a map of all murders in Baltimore, filterable by time period, race, gender, district, zip code, age, and cause of death. There are also some yearly charts below on…

The vast, vast, majority of the murders are drug and gang related and are confined to the bad parts of town on the east and west sides of the city. It looks like a large swath on the map because Baltimore used to be the third largest city in the country and is currently at half the population it was at it's height. The good areas are around the inner harbor, Fells Point, Canton, Federal Hill, as well as from the harbor running north to the JHU undergrad campus area, around Charles Village and Hampden. Personally I've lived here 10 years now and never felt unsafe. Another positive is that unlike SF single women outnumber single men by a large margin.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/features/baltimore-insider-blog/...

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#257
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bet is that Baltimore is poised to become a big tech hub. There was a ton of money spent in the tech sector after 2001 and that is tapering off now and you have a bunch of engineers with 10 years experience and the low cost of living in Baltimore which makes for a lot of opportunity to try things. The city also has a very Art oriented quirky culture like SF had before it priced out all the creative people and a lo…

Baltimore is still relatively expensive and is (locally) still widely regarded as a dangerous city that most people don't want to go to, quirky or not. There's a reason that most of the tech jobs in the general area are around the DC suburbs (and pushing further out each year). There's still incredible problems with getting good engineers to come to the general area as well: Baltimore/DC has SF-level cost of living b…

I disagree, it is extremely affordable compared to SF (A good amount of nice housing for 200-300k) and Tech salaries are largely the same as SF.

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very clever idea...they dont even need to offer it for free..they just need to sign the lease or buy the building and lease it to their portfolio companies. Edit: this would be a really clever idea for a fund to raise a round just to buy real estate to lease to their portfolio companies. It will give investors a chance at indirectly investing in startups with secure value backing the investment.

The high rent problem emerges only when the market is over-heated, and subsides when there's a correction. Anybody doing that would almost certainly be buying high and left holding the bag when an economic downcycle arrives.

I disagree. The same way a VC expects a few investments to cover the rest...they only need one rrapidly growing company to cover a downturn.

Any VC fund that doesnt diversify their investments to cover market movements wont survive very long.

Plus, even with a bubble bursting, commercial real estate in prime locations will retain much of its value. It will definitely outperform the startup market.

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very clever idea...they dont even need to offer it for free..they just need to sign the lease or buy the building and lease it to their portfolio companies. Edit: this would be a really clever idea for a fund to raise a round just to buy real estate to lease to their portfolio companies. It will give investors a chance at indirectly investing in startups with secure value backing the investment.

It's a clever idea when the market is going up, and a really dumb idea when the market drops underneath them. If they are locked into a very high rate, and the market goes down, which is always does at some point, then people will be questioning the decision since they would either need to force their companies to pay a ridiculous rate, or lose money trying to sublease it at market rate. The last thing VCs need to be…

I dont agree and landlord is hardly the word I would use for NNN lease tenant Management.

In a market downturn in a worst case scenario...this real estate has underlying value besides its immediate income producing potential. It will likely retain more value than their actual startup investments.

Source: Im a former commercial real estate leasing broker and former commercial real estate underwriter.

Re: Landlords are trying not to rent to startups in San Francisco

#260
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatsapp? Instagram? Headcount != success.

Avoiding revenue does seem to be a good way to "grow" sans headcount growth, but that seems like a rare exception to the rule rather than a reason to believe that valuation growth doesn't generally correlate with employee count.

I was trying to make a subtler point with the counterexamples: that focusing on the wrong KPIs lead to unintended and occasionally negative consequences.

Quick example: imagine you are an IT consultant brought in to automate data manipulation processes in BigCorp (or more often MediumCorp since BigCorp has an internal team doing this already).

There's 150 people currently downloading data into Excel, running a few macros they know nothing about, and then reuploading the CSVs. You figure out what the data flow is, read up the API doc, and build some kind of process that does it in 5 minutes in bash on a medium instance on AWS, whilst fixing the errors the macros were making.

Will it be an easy sell? You were expressedly brought in to do this, but you'll find that the manager in charge of the 150 people - let's call him the CXO - is going to fight every inch of the way to stop you from launching your product. He'll point at the diff between his crappy but nevertheless, in production stuff and your script as cause for audit, creating a weeks/months long review process (because nobody can find the time, or wants to take the responsibility and the fight). He'll blame you for creating a "toxic" work environment. He'll bog you down in endless 2h long lunchtime meetings unrelated to the main point in an attempt to make you lose your professionalism in front of external stakeholders. He'll list missing new features then put them through the audit process.

Eventually, once a few months have been wasted, he'll point at your lack of progress as a sign of your incompetence, even though the working version was ready to be rolled out months ago. Nobody will question him because the company is profitable and it doesn't really matter how the process is done, just that it gets done. So, you leave the project, pocketing your pay - which they will pay on time so you don't make a fuss - and things continue as before for the CXO and his team, perhaps even gaining approval for a further 50 in headcount to develop the new features or to compensate for the expensive SQL and scripting training (MS stack, of course) that he's sending his entire team to in batches, whilst you'll have made a bad impression on that company's management and be burnt out of their network.

The CXO benefits outside the company as well, as he can now say he managed XYZ employees which is how people automatically gauge someone's success. This enables a succession of ever greater responsibility positions (or entry to Harvard Business School, who actually asks you "how many reports did you have"). "Well, if the previous place trusted him with 150 people..."

It's even worse in startup space because VCs and many founders understand that growth at all costs is what matters, so there are significant incentives to doing it today, even if badly, vs doing it tomorrow but well and in a way that doesn't pile technical debt. It's a winner takes all, so you just need to pour in enough millions and you'll reap the billions (in fact this is also the very structure of a VC's portfolio, investing in 10 different ways of doing the same thing in the hope one wins, even if it means the others all die).

So some founders may be doubly incentivized: making the company as large and cash flow burning as possible both to appear like the obvious winner, and to justify mammoth fund raises at a time of abundant capital seeking yield; and, if things go wrong, well, they managed hundreds of millions of VC dollars and hundreds or thousands of people in dozens of global offices and it sounds damn good for their next try.

And this is where both WhatsApp and Instagram did things differently: they focused on getting the user growth scalable without enormous headcount growth, whilst - at least in Whatsapp's case - having enough cash flow to hold on until the mega acquisition (and in Instagram's case, sustaining the company on the early rounds). Pointing at lack of revenue is not particularly useful - I would say even a red herring - when even SaaS companies go 5-10 years without showing profitability and with enormous fund raises for growth (just look at the analytics space for recent examples).

The hedge fund space - which is almost by definition results driven - has already caught on - Bridgewater type funds with a thousand employees are the exception rather than the rule and seeing AUM over a billion USD per head is more common than "unicorn" startups.

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