The Electric Car • Hacker News Board

Re: The Electric Car

#321

Post by msandford » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 2:34 PM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #254

msandford wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I've never lived in SF but I understand that the economics are different out there. Once you have a note on a million dollar house, what's another $80k for a car? It barely moves the needle. But when your mortgage is only $1k/mo and then you have to spend another $1k/mo on a car (before insurance or "fuel" or anything else) you might start to wonder. I've got a Subaru and I figure that car will cost me about $15…

Actually I do live in SF. If you put a million dollar note on a house you are the mother of all house poor. One point I make is the Tesla is luxo-sport car. Costs a lot new like any other sporty car. So the cost of a new Tesla vs a used gasoline power car isn't really a fair comparison. Looking on Craigslist, you can get a used Nissan Leaf $10k, cost per mile is $0.035. One can run numbers but the cost of ownership i…

> One point I make is the Tesla is luxo-sport car. Costs a lot new like any other sporty car. So the cost of a new Tesla vs a used gasoline power car isn't really a fair comparison. Looking on Craigslist, you can get a used Nissan Leaf $10k, cost per mile is $0.035. One can run numbers but the cost of ownership is probably $300/mo.

I guess that's kind-of my point. If millenials can't afford to buy houses they're probably not buying luxo-sports cars. It's not that a Tesla is a bad idea, it's just that the idea that millions of young people with no real assets are going to buy them is a fantasy.

I would suggest that it's roughly as silly as saying pretty soon all the millenials are going to be driving 5 and 7 series BMWs. Not unless those cars come down in price by 80%-90% or everyone somehow magically gets rich AND there's no inflation.

Re: The Electric Car

#322

Post by ninkendo » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 3:11 PM UTC

waterlesscloud wrote: post #185

ninkendo wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of miles driven autonomously doesn't really matter if drivers have to intervene even for a second to resolve an issue. If the car is driving by itself 99% of the time, that's not good enough for the "share an autonomous car" use case. It's no good at 99.9% either. Or 99.99%. It's a lot more interesting if google's cars actually had no steering wheel or way of intervening. Because that's what we're talking…

"It's no good at 99.9% either. Or 99.99%." That's not completely right. If that 99.9% covers 100% of certain use cases, they will be used for those cases. It's like much else in tech, it's not an instant change, it's going to be all about expanding the uses cases over time.

The thing with autonomous ride sharing though, is that the car has to make it from its last stop to your home on its own. And there's any number of scenarios that can happen on its way... a traffic light could lose power and turn into a 4-way stop, for instance. Or a big event at a large venue where hundreds or thousands of pedestrians are crossing the street and you kinda have to inch forward and wait for some of them to wave you on to go forward (basically everybody jaywalks at that point.)

There's a million different 0.01% scenarios that could happen, and if you ramp the usage of a really really good autonomous car up to scale, you'll see them every day. Unless it can handle all of them without intervention, you simply can't ditch the driver, or you'd face huge PR nightmares when you either hit a pedestrian or you block an intersection and cause huge traffic in a major metropolitan area ("Mayor bans autonomous cars due to one too many gridlocks caused by them", etc.)

I really think it's down to the PR issues and the fact that one too many mistakes can really kill the idea, that companies will be cautious to just not need a driver altogether. And for autonomous ride sharing, you must be able to do nearly half your miles without a driver. Hence why that last .01% is still crucial.

Re: The Electric Car

#323

Post by Symmetry » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 3:25 PM UTC

lectrick wrote: post #312

reedlaw wrote: post #156

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Spoken exactly like someone who has never driven a Tesla. ;) > a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats 5 and can easily be driven across the country How much did that Lexus cost new? How much will a used Tesla go for in a few years? > and can easily be driven across the country Yes, NOW. But, you didn't read the article (or your reading comprehension sucks). If 10% of the…

There very likely is no tipping point with gas stations.

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/the...

"A 10% reduction would be 221 million vehicles but that is how many vehicles there were in 2000. Was driving an automobile so much more inconvenient in 2000 than it was in 2009?"

Re: The Electric Car

#324

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 3:26 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #219

toomuchtodo wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition

That's many decades away.

My bet calls for under 10 years.

Re: The Electric Car

#325

Post by Symmetry » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 3:46 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #158

hackuser wrote: post #20

The real story my be that car sales may decline, gas or electric: * People drive less; I saw a study showing that significantly fewer millenials are licensed to drive than their predecessors. * More people live in cities, where the cost of cars is higher (insurance and parking) and the demand for them is less due to the proximity of destinations and the availability of alternatives (public transport, taxis, ride-shar…

According to FiveThirtyEight, the urbanization trend is largely exaggerated. The more accurate statement is that college-educated millennials are somewhat more likely to live in a handful of particularly dense urban locations (think Brooklyn).[1] In fact, among all adults 25-34 the percentage in urban locations overall has actually declined. The data is a bit hard to interpret for a variety of reasons but the bottom…

If we're talking about the market size for Tesla teh urbanization trend is not at all exaggerated. The US may not be doing much urbanization but the world overall certainly is.

Re: The Electric Car

#326

Post by krschultz » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 3:54 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #234

krschultz wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is massively cheaper to solve the problem of extending electricity 5 meters from the inside of the apartment building to the parking lot than it would be to build a global hydrogen distribution network.

You're missing the point. Who is going to pay to extend electricity into each car bay of an apartment building car park ? It's a significant cost that any property developer is not currently doing (they clearly see a weak market) nor likely to do for the handful of people who will request it. Much of a future hydrogen distribution network already exists (we have transportation companies, gas stations etc) all of whom…

Most apartment buildings didn't have A/C when they were built either. The building I'm in is nearly 120 years old. At some point the landlord ran extra cabling and dedicated outlets so we could have window air conditioning. I imagine that was as expensive or more than car charging stations would be.

The market demanded it, landlords provided it. Keep in mind landlords are in the business of finding ways to deploy capital to increase their rental incomes. That's why they upgrade kitchens and floors - because they can raise rent. Much like air conditioning once was, having an electric car charger certainly seems like an amenity you can charge for.

Re: The Electric Car

#327

Post by mikestew » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 4:03 PM UTC

pkulak wrote: post #248

ylhert wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a used leaf will likely only have <50 miles of range. My dad has one and it has been a disaster for him -- the range keeps decreasing and he can do less and less with it.

The 2011 and 2012 were disasters for Nissan. Never buy one of those, especially in a hot climate. I've had my 2013 for two years now and haven't noticed any drop in range at all.

We were one of the first in line to pre-order our 2011 Leaf. The battery capacity bar hasn't budged in four years, and there has been no noticeable drop in range. But we also live in Seattle, where 90F is considered to be unbearably hot.

Re: The Electric Car

#328

Post by lectrick » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 5:35 PM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #323

lectrick wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spoken exactly like someone who has never driven a Tesla. ;) > a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats 5 and can easily be driven across the country How much did that Lexus cost new? How much will a used Tesla go for in a few years? > and can easily be driven across the country Yes, NOW. But, you didn't read the article (or your reading comprehension sucks). If 10% of the…

There very likely is no tipping point with gas stations. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/the... "A 10% reduction would be 221 million vehicles but that is how many vehicles there were in 2000. Was driving an automobile so much more inconvenient in 2000 than it was in 2009?"

> Was driving an automobile so much more inconvenient in 2000 than it was in 2009?

I don't understand this logic. The answer is "no, it wasn't, because there were fewer vehicles." What would happen is that stations would become less dense, and there's a low density point there where "inconvenience" is reached, or at least, gas-range anxiety. This actually happened when gas vehicles were new.

The response also says that demand is already decreasing simply due to the emergence of more fuel-efficient vehicles, so a penetrating EV market may merely accelerate that decline.

Re: The Electric Car

#329

Post by matheweis » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 5:43 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #279

reedlaw wrote: post #156

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Here is the kicker they so conveniently ignore. America's love of the automobile, if not true for other parts of the world I would be amazed, is the freedom it offers. Go anywhere, anytime. Electric cars limit owners ability to do so. You are on your car's schedule and the current limitations are still extreme. More than one magazine has staged a long drive of an electric car like certain manufactures and enthusiast…

America's love of the automobile is waning. Miles travelled per capita has already peaked in several states, starting as far back as 2004:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/16/t...

Re: The Electric Car

#330

Post by martinald » Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 7:34 PM UTC

JacobAldridge wrote: post #159

martinald wrote: post #53

To be honest, this misses the point in urban areas (which is increasingly where everyone wants to live). There's too much congestion for cars to work in urban areas, at least for commuting. It doesn't matter whether they are autonomous, electric, petrol, hydrogen or whatever. The capacity of a multi-lane freeway vs a heavy rail commuter line or metro is so small, even with carpooling. Unless suddenly this trend rever…

Isn't a big part of congestion due to inefficient human driving? While it won't be v1.0, I could see autonomous vehicles taking half the cars off the road (car pooling) and then providing much more efficient transit regarding speed, lane changes, real time route selection etc. This will definitely be more valuable for the suburbs, or cities with poor public transport infrastructure. Perhaps in some places your autono…

Maybe in some cities, but the roads in London are gridlocked all the time and there is something like a 98:2 ratio of people using mass transit vs driving. I would assume it is the same in NYC, etc. No amount of lane selection, car pooling will ever make that better. And unless people carpool from the exact same place to the same workplace, there's going to be duplication of drop off points which probably makes things worse as they'll be downtown with the most traffic.

And no, there was no surge on uber to get that journey. There was other transit routes everyone else will take but I was in a real rush (even routing round the disruption would've still been way faster than driving).

To be honest though, if you're driving to the transit station then you're missing the point. I'm really talking to the masses of people that have giving up/will give up their car entirely and rely on public transit & the occasional taxi (uber, autonomous, whatever) for when they've been out partying or what not.