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The Electric Car

blog.geoffralston.com

271–280 of 349 posts

Re: The Electric Car

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait to buy an electric car until it's convenient for you to charge it?

I guess you have missed the big population trends of the last few decades. More and more people are moving to inner city apartments every one of which is not designed with electric cars in mind. And with property prices reaching astronomical amounts in many places e.g. Australia, UK, Europe, HK, SG the lure of cheaper but smaller apartments is only going to grow. For me this is is one of the big advantages of hydroge…

>>For me this is is one of the big advantages of hydrogen cars i.e. you use them exactly the same as your existing car.

Except that you can't, because hydrogen tanks can store very little of it(a lead 70kg bottle can store only 1kg of hydrogen), and hydrogen slowly leaks out through any container you could possibly put it into, so after 4-5 weeks of the car standing still you have an empty tank.

Re: The Electric Car

#272
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mentioning accidents makes them sound dangerous. Mentioning that they haven't been at fault in any of them changes that significantly. In their last monthly report they described the two incidents in detail and they were the fault of the human driver behind them and about as trivial as collisions get.

They're still worth mentioning though. A good human driver can anticipate those situations and minimize the risk. Eg. I will not hard break for a yellow if the driver behind me is tailgating me, I'm super aware of drivers coming out from side roads because some of them just assume that there isn't coming any cars because there usually isn't. Not that an AI cannot learn that, but they're not good in unknown situations…

I'm willing to bet that those would be considered very basic and obvious problems to the people developing these cars. They work on this stuff every hour of every day.

The AI will know (and share with other cars) tendencies for individual intersections and eventually share broader traffic knowledge. There will come a time where we just cannot compete with that. They will know every intersection's peculiarities and we'll know only those that we frequent, at best. They'll adjust for weather conditions too where we'll go by gut feel - e.g., at intersection X, what did people tend to do in light rain, driving West in the morning. What about on a hot day going N-S in peak hour. They will have data at hand for every location, condition and time if need be.

Re: The Electric Car

#273

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

If you want to test drive a Model S and see what all the fuss is about then here are the events: http://my.teslamotors.com/en_GB/events

Also GLiiDE ("chauffeur driven car service, exclusively using electric vehicles") could mean you don't need to own one: http://gliide.co

Re: The Electric Car

#274

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Bumper cars at an amusement park?

Chinese cars, some with lead-acid batteries, some with lithium-ion. The price of the car is mainly determined by the batteries it holds. The rest of the car is usually cheaply made. Some cheaper ones feel like they don't have any shocks at all. Those in the $10,000 range have amenities such as WiFi, adjustable seats, and rear-facing video camera.

Re: The Electric Car

#275

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

I think driving in a Model S to give you a sense of where mainstream $20,000 electric cars will be in 10-15 years will give you a much better idea than a $5,000 Chinese electric car that's probably slightly better than a bicycle will.

The "electric" part of the car is maybe 50% or more of an EV cost, and it will be affected by a "Moore's Law"-like law (but with a 2x improvement in 5-10 years instead of 2), and most of the other 50% is stuff like huge high quality wheels, leather materials and all that "luxury" stuff. Drastically reduce that stuff to $20,000 gas-powered car "luxury" levels, and then extrapolate where the "electric" side of the car will be in 10-15 years, and I think you'll get pretty close to a Model S-like driving experience on a much cheaper car.

To give you an analogy (I know, again with the iPhone, but I think they have more in common than not) what you're saying would be more like trying out a $100 "touchscreen smartphone" in 2007 and saying "Wow these suck - they are even worse than regular smartphones because they work so much more slowly having to power that big resolution and those graphics".

So your experience then wouldn't be an accurate prediction of how touchscreen phones, even $100 or $200 ones, let alone the $600 ones, will be in the future, because in 2007 you needed quite expensive components to provide a "good experience" with a "touchscreen phone".

The original iPhone that cost $600 gave you a much better idea of how touchscreen phones will be 8 years later, because now even $100 touchscreen phones have better specs and work better than the $600 iPhone did back then, and can do a lot more, too.

That's why the Model S should give you a much better idea of how $20,000 EVs will be in 10-15 years than a $5,000 EV does today.

Re: The Electric Car

#276

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

If I remember correctly, iPhone came out when most featured phone is either free with a contract or less than 50 bucks.

And you don't "own" it if it's carrier locked (wait out your contract)

Re: The Electric Car

#277

I wish people would be slightly more honest about technological change. Smartphones are very special. They are very cheap, easy to mass produce, and you can iterate on them very quickly. Cars on the other hand have a much longer life cycle, involve much more capital, and in general are going to follow an elongated investment / replacement cycle. Comparing these two systems, while enthusiastic and great for a college…

I am one of the biggest Tesla fanboys out. Everything Geoff said is true but he makes it seem like this is around the corner and it isn't even close. At least 60M cars are produced annually[0] and there are about 1B currently in the world[1]. A best case for tesla is to grow from ~50K cars to ~500K cars anually by 2020. There isn't an industrial base yet. Some other manufacturers will contribute of course, but even i…

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-milli...

Re: The Electric Car

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For refill time, note that most electric car owners do almost all of their charging in their own garages overnight... not something that's common for gas-powered cars. Long trips are worse for electric cars, sure. But day-to-day driving? Charging is not an issue if you can charge in your garage.

For those of us who live in apartment buildings and don't have a garage where we can install such things, then what? To me this has always been the biggest obstacle of an electric car.

Electric car infrastructure is "cheap" (compared to say hydrogen stations or even gas stations). Chargers will be everywhere by the time 20% of the car market is electric. I wouldn't worry too much about it if you're not planning to get an EV in the next 10 years anyway.

Re: The Electric Car

#279

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Here is the kicker they so conveniently ignore. America's love of the automobile, if not true for other parts of the world I would be amazed, is the freedom it offers. Go anywhere, anytime.

Electric cars limit owners ability to do so. You are on your car's schedule and the current limitations are still extreme. More than one magazine has staged a long drive of an electric car like certain manufactures and enthusiast have only to reveal that you will have to drive out of your way at times and your trip time is greatly extended. The same people who have the means to buy 100k cars; don't fool yourselves the transaction prices on many Ss are there have the extra time.

Think about it, if you can only go 200 miles and have to stop for thirty minutes each time to charge what it does to anything but travel completed wholly in that radius. Then add in diversions to acceptable charging stations.

Pure electrics are fine for metropolitan travel. When their recharge rate becomes very quick or an acceptable range extender; likely hydrogen; becomes available then they will have widerspread acceptance.

To be honest, outside of a small niche electric "cars" aren't there yet. However there is no reason electric school buses aren't worth the time. If you want acceptance to grow then employ the tech where everyone will see it and in a means you can sell on many levels. While an electric school bus would be expensive I would much rather see the Federal subsidy go there than funding a wealthy persons car, someone who could afford it without the subsidy. School systems spend a fortune on fuel and are subject to fluctuations in price. Electrify the buses, solar and wind power the depots, and you can not only charge them but sell to the grid and during times when school is out they could perhaps feed back stored electricty.

Re: The Electric Car

#280

I wish people would be slightly more honest about technological change. Smartphones are very special. They are very cheap, easy to mass produce, and you can iterate on them very quickly. Cars on the other hand have a much longer life cycle, involve much more capital, and in general are going to follow an elongated investment / replacement cycle. Comparing these two systems, while enthusiastic and great for a college…

I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in the plan for such quick adoption, including:

- No great options currently for charging in apartments. Virtually the entire world is on an urbanisation trend, so this segment of potential EV owners is really important for adoption, and isn't being currently served.

- People replace their cars at much slower rates than smartphones.

I think there is a lot of potential for disruption in the transportation sector. Trucking companies and taxi fleets don't care if their vehicles are big, ugly and heavy (as they would be if outfitted with batteries), cost is the main factor. When EV running costs dip below the cost of ICE vehicles (and when battery density improves the range sufficiently), these guys are going to have a huge incentive to invest in EVs quickly.

Also, if someone figures out how to build an electric jet in the next few decades, it will transform the airline industry who are currently held hostage by the price of oil. Perhaps airlines can compete on service rather than price gouging on "extras" that used to be covered by the cost of a ticket, to make up for razor thin margins. Airports could also be built closer to city centres, as the noise and air pollution concerns disappear.

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