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The Electric Car

blog.geoffralston.com

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Re: The Electric Car

#131

Post by toomuchtodo »

CountSessine wrote: post #117
CountSessine wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.

Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO 5 years is a fantasy. Continued exponential increases in device computing power is by no means guaranteed now that chips are at the 14nm feature size. And the recent progress in AI can only be partially attributed to improved computing power - much of it was from improved approaches to train…

> I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more.

Want to make a Long Bet on that? I'm willing to bet up to $1000 USD, loser pays winner's choice of 501(c)(3) US charity org, that self-driving cars will be mainstream in under 10 years.

Re: The Electric Car

#132

Post by seizethecheese »

powera wrote: post #88
erikpukinskis wrote: post #24

I don't think people full comprehend the price drop that is imminent. The total cost of ownership per mile for a car in the U.S. right now is about $0.60. I was watching a panel the other day where someone calculated the cost per mile of a fleet of self-driving on-demand electric cars at $0.08. That an 86% reduction. People might have their misgivings about any of this stuff... electric, self-driving, carshare, and o…

If a Tesla Model S costs $70000, even if electricity and maintenance are free (and there's no premium for self-driving) you would have to drive it 875000 miles for it to cost $0.08/mile. This seems like the type of thing that is literally unbelievable without more evidence than "I heard somebody on a panel say this".

The $0.08 is the _marginal_ cost of operation. You're not comparing apples to apples. The $0.60 cost of operating a gasoline vehicle does not include the original cost of the vehicle. (Using your same math: $70,000 car driven 100,000 miles would be $0.70 per mile.)

Re: The Electric Car

#133

Post by Gustomaximus »

rickdale wrote: post #17

My big qualm with the electric cars that I don't read about is the 40minute-1hour charging. People complain that charging stations aren't near them, but the convenience of pulling into a gas station filling up and being ready for another 400 miles in less than 5 minutes is hard to beat. Even if the charging stations were all around, 5 versus 40-60 min is a big difference.

Petrol cars are limited to petrol stations. Electricity is easily and safely available everywhere. I'm sure soon enough many parking locations will come standard with charging. This is already in place in some areas. And if your doing long haul driving timing lunch or a break with their charging doesn't seem unreasonable. So I don't see this being an unsolvable problem at all. Quite the opposite. In 50 years people will probably be reminiscing about 'the hassle' of altering their destination to find a place to fuel their car. That's if we are still driving them at this point!

Re: The Electric Car

#134

Post by mahyarm »

greglindahl wrote: post #75
cowsandmilk wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boston has added hybrid buses to their fleet. They are much quieter. I'm a fan. But I agree about the parking spaces. Even now in new construction, it is considered forward thinking to have 2 or 3 spaces with outlets out of 100. For the future of electric cars, they should at least have conduit to spaces where outlets could be installed.

New construction in Palo Alto, including single family homes, is required to have that sort of thing pre-installed. Conduit only for single-family homes, a lot of conduit and some actual chargers for multi-family and commercial buildings.

If you own a single family home, then electric cars are ok. If you live in a multiunit, rent, do not have a garage or similar, then charging at home is not practical.

Re: The Electric Car

#135

Post by staunch »

I find even this view to be pessimistic and limited, because it assumes we need to keep fairly conventional (but electric) cars around, which we don't!

It's likely we'll rapidly end up with something like the computer controlled "carpods" Google is building, which could be radically cheaper than any car people have to be able to drive. Even if they can only go 45mph, that's enough to navigate most major cities at an optimal speed.

Re: The Electric Car

#136

Post by dangrossman »

The future's already here. A 2-3 year old Nissan Leaf, top trim with all the features, with 10-20K miles on it and a 7-year factory CPO warranty, costs just $10-12K. That's thousands less than the average price paid for a used car last month. If your commute's less than 40-50 miles each way, you can have all the advantages of owning an EV today, not X years down the line. Zero gas, zero maintenance, zero emission inspections, and damn fun to drive. And you don't need any special charging hardware; you can plug it into any old 120V wall socket overnight.

Re: The Electric Car

#137

Post by philwelch »

tdiggity wrote: post #86
philwelch wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who don't drive that distance don't need cars, frankly--and not owning a car at all is a trend that's growing faster than Tesla sales.

Most people I know that live in peninsula and south bay of silicon valley have a 10-25 mile commute (1-way) and it would be a huge inconvenience to not have a car. You can't get around with just Uber down here.

Yes, it's unfortunate that people still live in suburban areas that don't have transit.

Re: The Electric Car

#138

Post by frankus »

mschuster91 wrote: post #118

While I agree with the author that electric vehicles will in not long time dominate the car market, I strongly disagree with point #3: > Gas stations will start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. Gas stations even today don't make money with gas, it's next to a loss leader to get customers into the store and spend money on snacks and car…

But once it's no longer an effective loss leader, they might just stop selling gas, which has the same effect.

You can see from land use patterns (at least in the West Coast North American cities I'm familiar with) that at a certain land value the retail gasoline business no longer pencils out, or at a minimum it becomes more of a natural monopoly. Intersections in gentrifying neighborhoods that used to have two or three gas stations increasingly have one or none.

Like drive-thru restaurants and banks, they're pretty effective at sabotaging walkability, so I wouldn't be too sad to see them go (or transition into just convenience stores).

Re: The Electric Car

#139

Post by agumonkey »

hackuser wrote: post #20

The real story my be that car sales may decline, gas or electric: * People drive less; I saw a study showing that significantly fewer millenials are licensed to drive than their predecessors. * More people live in cities, where the cost of cars is higher (insurance and parking) and the demand for them is less due to the proximity of destinations and the availability of alternatives (public transport, taxis, ride-shar…

No significant impact for remote working since the explosion of the web ?

More than cars, some people are even going away from owning a house and just hop between countries, etc.

Re: The Electric Car

#140

Post by artursapek »

MattHeard wrote: post #124
mschuster91 wrote: post #118

While I agree with the author that electric vehicles will in not long time dominate the car market, I strongly disagree with point #3: > Gas stations will start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. Gas stations even today don't make money with gas, it's next to a loss leader to get customers into the store and spend money on snacks and car…

Aren't they convenient because they're only a few yards from your car? If you no longer need to drive to the gas station to get fuel, it's a lot less convenient, isn't it?

They're convenient because they're right off the freeway. The gas pumps will disappear and be replaced with superchargers.
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