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The Electric Car

blog.geoffralston.com

81–90 of 349 posts

Re: The Electric Car

#82

I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz. The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move so sli…

I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. does quick count so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners.

Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, this may be as simple as changing a wheel. This is huge for the 2nd hand market. Most people I know who aren't 'techies' are really looking forward to electric cars.

Re: The Electric Car

#83
"Ten years ago a prediction that this would be the future would have been met with scorn or laughter"

... this sounds like bollocks, I guess I am an outlier as I worked on J2me apps at the time, but mobile phones where everywhere in 2005, the US was a bit behind, but certainly in the UK mobile wasn't the future, but the present - many of those people used apps and games, they just didn't know what an 'app' was although they used them.

Re: The Electric Car

#84
post #2

Interesting article, though it forgets the elephant in the room: self-driving cars. The two will probably work hand in hand, but it is unlikely, in my opinion, that any electric cars will be charging at home very much, because most electric cars will be owned by companies, not individuals. Why own a car when you can pay a tiny percentage of a cab fare to go anywhere? When a journey that currently costs $50 costs 20 c…

What if the self-driving electric cab gets soiled with the last passenger's bodily fluids?

The same thing that happens if you get into a zipcar with barf on the seats.

Re: The Electric Car

#85

I don't think people full comprehend the price drop that is imminent. The total cost of ownership per mile for a car in the U.S. right now is about $0.60. I was watching a panel the other day where someone calculated the cost per mile of a fleet of self-driving on-demand electric cars at $0.08. That an 86% reduction. People might have their misgivings about any of this stuff... electric, self-driving, carshare, and o…

On demand self driving cars will be amazing. A lot of people I know work part time, or have two jobs. Car sharing kinda works, but it is complex to organize over facebook chat at 11PM.

Being able to rent the appropriate car to match the passengers would make it much easier. 7 people? 2 people? 3 people + 6 surfboards? 2 people with kyaks? I can not wait for this to happen.

Re: The Electric Car

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How often do you drive that distance? Sure, there are people that take road trips of 200+ miles often, and then it may be more convenient for them to refuel quickly. But the majority doesn't do that very often.

People who don't drive that distance don't need cars, frankly--and not owning a car at all is a trend that's growing faster than Tesla sales.

Most people I know that live in peninsula and south bay of silicon valley have a 10-25 mile commute (1-way) and it would be a huge inconvenience to not have a car. You can't get around with just Uber down here.

Re: The Electric Car

#87
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is accurate.. It was pretty common to pass the Lexus SUVs that Google was using for their autonomous platforms on the highway at speeds of 65+ MPH. I'm not sure if they're still around since my commute changed, but they were previously all over the Bay Area. I personally saw them on HWYs 101, 280, 880, and 92..

Are you sure the cars were not being driven by a human at those times?

Nope, hence my equivocation.. I've no special insight into the program, but the LIDARs would be spinning and the interiors were lit up with sensors and displays.

Re: The Electric Car

#88

I don't think people full comprehend the price drop that is imminent. The total cost of ownership per mile for a car in the U.S. right now is about $0.60. I was watching a panel the other day where someone calculated the cost per mile of a fleet of self-driving on-demand electric cars at $0.08. That an 86% reduction. People might have their misgivings about any of this stuff... electric, self-driving, carshare, and o…

If a Tesla Model S costs $70000, even if electricity and maintenance are free (and there's no premium for self-driving) you would have to drive it 875000 miles for it to cost $0.08/mile. This seems like the type of thing that is literally unbelievable without more evidence than "I heard somebody on a panel say this".

Re: The Electric Car

#89

I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz. The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move so sli…

I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. does quick count so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners. Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, t…

They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix.

I think you're ignoring the big problem, the battery. When that goes, it is a big deal to replace, and mucho expensive.

Re: The Electric Car

#90

I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz. The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move so sli…

I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. does quick count so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners. Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, t…

True, but there's at least one really expensive component of electric cars that needs replacement every 8 to 10 years: the battery. I think the current price is about $10000 for the battery if you order from Tesla in advance.

Maintenance and repair costs of a gasoline vehicle over 10 years can be less than that.

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