A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

Post by spitfire » Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 6:03 PM UTC

juliangregorian wrote: post #47

jerf wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a nice, clear example of the anti-inductivity of the market: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ The very act of noticing that something is a good strategy, and beginning to trade on it, will over time drain away the utility of the strategy, until it is useless or worse than useless. Tracking indexes is "big", and has some brute simplicity about it, but eventually the market will eliminate that…

Show me an actively managed portfolio that consistently beats an index fund and I'll believe it. Until then, you guys can pretend to have all the inside information you want, but numbers don't lie.

Post by donjuanica » Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 6:14 PM UTC

chollida1 wrote: post #3

I expected to see (1995) tagged to the end of this article. I personally know 3 people who run their own money ( Having said that, this isn't exactly easy. You need to know 1) if a stock is going into the index 2) when its going into the index 3) how much the index will buy 4) how much the index buy will affect the price of the stock the first 3 are trivial for some index funds, though most have rules that allow them…

Post by nerfhammer » Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 6:22 PM UTC

jayvanguard wrote: post #19

Sounds like it was written by someone with an interest in encouraging people to buy expensive managed funds.

Post by DaniFong » Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 6:44 PM UTC

juliangregorian wrote: post #47

jerf wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a nice, clear example of the anti-inductivity of the market: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ The very act of noticing that something is a good strategy, and beginning to trade on it, will over time drain away the utility of the strategy, until it is useless or worse than useless. Tracking indexes is "big", and has some brute simplicity about it, but eventually the market will eliminate that…

Show me an actively managed portfolio that consistently beats an index fund and I'll believe it. Until then, you guys can pretend to have all the inside information you want, but numbers don't lie.

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 6:55 PM UTC

spitfire wrote: post #62

juliangregorian wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me an actively managed portfolio that consistently beats an index fund and I'll believe it. Until then, you guys can pretend to have all the inside information you want, but numbers don't lie.

Renaissance technology.