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Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

nytimes.com

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Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#371

Post by bitmapbrother »

Lazare wrote: post #354
maaku wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention what is actually happening here -- publicizing private debts. Why should European taxpayers be on the hook for risky bets made by Deutschebank et al? That's what's really going on here. Nearly all of the bail out funds received by Greece have gone to paying back debt. Which sounds like a good, moral thing. But what that actually means is that public money (IMF or ECB loans, backed by governments and th…

First, a minor point: The biggest holders of Greek debt were French banks by far, followed by UK banks and only then German banks. So when you say "Deutschebank, Goldman Sachs, etc." what you mean is BNP Paribas. But if you don't even know which banks—or countries—were involved, it raises questions. And I have no idea why you tossed Goldman Sachs in there; they never held significant amounts of Greek debt. They helpe…

>First, a minor point: The biggest holders of Greek debt were French banks by far

I was under the impression that the German banks were the biggest holders of Greek debt followed by France and Italy.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#372

Post by corin_ »

mitchty wrote: post #353
alasdair_ wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>on a per dollar basis. Surely what matters is actual dollars. Delaware has less than a million people living in it. California has almost forty million. So long as CA is contributing a net positive percentage to the federal government, it's very likely that they are contributing more overall to the well being of the nation than Delaware is.

Thats great, so which is it then, total dollars or return on federal dollars? If i put in 1k in federal taxes and get 800 back, what matter is it what state i'm in? Or are we saying Delaware residents getting 70 cents on the dollar is not as bad as Californians getting 95 cents because there are more people, thus Californians are more important? I'm honestly not trying to be a dick here but what exactly is the argume…

I don't have numbers but his point is that a per-dollar amount doesn't show how much a state is contributing at all.

> If i put in 1k in federal taxes and get 800 back, what matter is it what state i'm in? Or are we saying Delaware residents getting 70 cents on the dollar is not as bad as Californians getting 95 cents because there are more people, thus Californians are more important?

Californians aren't more important individually, but California is. Obviously a million people with $5 each is a larger sum than twenty people with $10 each.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#373

Post by corin_ »

ssalazar wrote: post #355
twobits wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your solution is for greece to start WW3?

Ha. Is that a joke?

Not him but if I were my answer would be: not just a joke but a rather clever comment about the logic behind the idea that Greece would be more deserving of debt-forgiveness if they started a war on top of the current situation.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#374

Post by gutnor »

empressplay wrote: post #348
monk_e_boy wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, the people who mismanaged and/or stole the money in previous years are GONE. Why punish the average Joe in Greece? What will it achieve?

The point of democracy is that the people appoint representatives to act on their behalf -- as such, the public is indeed fully responsible for what their politicians do, like it or not, whether an individual voted for them or not. There is no abdication of responsibility in a democracy and the Greeks should know that better than anyone.

> There is no abdication of responsibility in a democracy and the Greeks should know that better than anyone.

You get history sadly backward. The no abdication of responsibility is what dragged the world in 2 world wars and what Europe is supposed to fix.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#375

Post by gurkendoktor »

return0 wrote: post #60
atmosx wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you are convinced that Germany acted in Greece's best interest is what sets us apart. Your money went mainly to your Banks, via Greece. Concluding, I'd rather go back to the Drachma and blow the Euro project than die starving becuase it suits your country's political class. ps. Even if Greece doesn't put the last nail on the coffin of the EU-project, I'm 100% sure that the UK will.

A grexit will strengthen the euro substantially. The key economy is Italy , which is doing pretty stable. After grexit, Greece doesnt stand to win much, in particular its entrepreneurial class will just leave the country. This kind of schadenfreude against EU/EZ/Germany is very common in greece this week. In a few months, nobody will want to admit they voted for "no".

A strengthened Euro would wreck our (Germany's) export-based economy. I'm sure we'll find a way around that.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#376

Post by corin_ »

quonn wrote: post #69
tormeh wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A public sector can be enormous without damaging the economy. In Scandinavian countries it's about 50% and used to be higher. The problem is that the Greek government is both bad and weak. The Greek public sector's purpose is not really to provide utility to the populace, but to buy votes from the unions. It's very hard to pay for because it does not enrichen the private sector nearly as much as it should. And becaus…

> Greece is not just insolvent, it's also practically a failed state. Syria, Iraq - those are failed states. Greece just managed to organise a democratic referendum peacefully and efficiently - within a week. A failed state looks different to me.

I don't entirely agree with the concept that it's a failed state, but the fact that it doesn't look like other "failed states" doesn't mean much. If two companies go out of business and one had a crazy employee go on a killing spree you wouldn't say the other company hadn't failed because all it's former employees were still alive.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#377

Post by learnstats2 »

Natsu wrote: post #337
sooheon wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't discount the third option, that creditors are neither dumb or gullible, but predatory.

Usually predatory lenders have more recourse over you: they'll take your car from the car title loan, etc. What do they gain from this situation, exactly? It seems to me like everybody loses here... and I'm not entirely certain they won't find some bailout and have it happen again. Right now, I feel sorry for the people in Greece, it seems like they work long hours for nothing and their government is completely under…

>they'll take your car from the car title loan, etc.

they'll take your pensions from the pension pot, etc.

This deal is about giving predatory lenders political power over nation-states.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#378

Post by ucho »

cperciva wrote: post #322
jbapple wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's effectively what Japan is doing, by having its central bank loan money at 0.1%. Does that make it more conceivable that Japan will eventually pay down its debt?

Yes. Economists often refer to "explicit" sovereign defaults (where the debts don't get paid back) and "implicit" defaults (where the debts get wiped out by a policy of deliberate inflation or devaluing of the currency). Greece's inability to effect an implicit default is why they've ended up with an explicit default. In the case of Japan, since most of their debt is held by residents, it's even a stretch to call thi…

Japan is now in a trap - they want to go from deflation to moderate inflation to boost economic growth but won't be able to handle the dept if cost of borrowing money raises. Also their demographics situation is one of the worst in the world - if they don't repay the debts now how will they do it when number of people in production age drops.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#379

Post by monk_e_boy »

empressplay wrote: post #348
monk_e_boy wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, the people who mismanaged and/or stole the money in previous years are GONE. Why punish the average Joe in Greece? What will it achieve?

The point of democracy is that the people appoint representatives to act on their behalf -- as such, the public is indeed fully responsible for what their politicians do, like it or not, whether an individual voted for them or not. There is no abdication of responsibility in a democracy and the Greeks should know that better than anyone.

I understand and don't know the specifics of how the average Greek voted, but here in the UK the government got in with less than 40% of the vote.

> The point of democracy is that the people appoint representatives to act on their behalf

in a perfect world, yes this should happen. But look around, the system isn't perfect. Look at america, money buys power. The money isn't evenly distributed. The system is broken.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#380

Post by Lazare »

bitmapbrother wrote: post #371
Lazare wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, a minor point: The biggest holders of Greek debt were French banks by far, followed by UK banks and only then German banks. So when you say "Deutschebank, Goldman Sachs, etc." what you mean is BNP Paribas. But if you don't even know which banks—or countries—were involved, it raises questions. And I have no idea why you tossed Goldman Sachs in there; they never held significant amounts of Greek debt. They helpe…

>First, a minor point: The biggest holders of Greek debt were French banks by far I was under the impression that the German banks were the biggest holders of Greek debt followed by France and Italy.

No. Back in 2012, French banks had about €30 billion in exposure, with UK banks holding €6.4b and German banks less than €5b ([1]). BNP Paribas alone lost almost as much as every German bank combined started with, to put it in perspective.

After the disaster that was the bond swap (more than 50% of face value removed, and swapped for bonds with 30 year terms, AND the interest rate slashed to almost nothing), most of the banks cut their losses and ran.

The exception is, yes, the German banks (along with US and UK banks). Their exposure has climbed, with each now holding around €10b, with Germany slightly in the lead ([2]).

So at the time of the 2012 haircut, French banks were most exposed (among banks) and lost a lot of money. Today German banks are most exposed (among banks), but it's a lot less than it was; private sector debt is way below its peak.

But keep in mind! Something like 80% of all Greek debt is held by public institutions, aka, the troika. All foreign banks, added up, are still something like...I dunno, 10% of total Greek debt. Greek is in hoc to the EU, the ECB, and the IMF; the €10b owed to German banks is peanuts in comparison, to the extent that the banks don't even have a seat at the negotiating table any more.

[1]: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9125614/G...

[2]: http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2015/jun/19/the-gr...

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