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Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

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Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#131

Post by tptacek »

alexqgb wrote: post #127
tptacek wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also not clear on what Germany's payment history has to do with the crisis. The problem isn't simply that Greece is defaulting on loans, but that it's doing so while asking for more loans, without which it will be forced into austerity.

Um, what? It will be forced into austerity? I'm sorry, but they have been. Past tense, like…years ago. That's why they're suffering a 25% unemployment rate and a contraction of GDP that exceeds what the U.S. saw in the Great Depression.

Yes, but wherever they are now (after troika-mediated austerity), it's going to be worse after they lose their funding, isn't it?

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#132

Post by i_s »

HSO wrote: post #59

At the risk of being a moralizing bore, may I remind everybody that "Germany", "Greece" etc. are not people, and that people are not countries? I am surprised by the national coloring, however faint, of some comments here and there https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9834721 . "I am a German" or "Greek here" should have no relevance to the ideas put forth. "Your money" and "your banks" are not really "my money" and…

> The theory of complex systems reminds us that aggregates can have properties that are not traceable to any individuals themselves. Game theory tells us that incentives and constraints can get so messed up that developments take on an eigendynamic which was nobody's intent nor interest.

I'm interested in those ideas. Can you give a link to any information about them?

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#133

Post by Naga »

vacri wrote: post #95
GeneralMayhem wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can still claim some moral high ground in that, were they to go bankrupt today, colonialism was not directly the cause. That's not the case with Germany in the 40s/50s.

The debt forgiveness of Germany post-WWII shouldn't just be seen as altruism. The Soviet Bear was seen as a major threat by the Allies, and having a healthy buffer state was a significant factor in making policy around West German finances. If Greece was a buffer state against some monstrously powerful ideological opponent, you can bet that we'd be seeing considerably different politicking going on.

I wouldn't see it as altruism either, but I think you discount the fact that the Allies did not want a third war with Germany. There were factions within the American government that wanted to turn Germany into a deindustrialized field, but instead they built Germany up into a strong ally. It was more than to just counter the Soviets: They removed the German threat for good.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#134

Post by return0 »

HSO wrote: post #59

At the risk of being a moralizing bore, may I remind everybody that "Germany", "Greece" etc. are not people, and that people are not countries? I am surprised by the national coloring, however faint, of some comments here and there https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9834721 . "I am a German" or "Greek here" should have no relevance to the ideas put forth. "Your money" and "your banks" are not really "my money" and…

You are not wrong, nationalism is making a big comeback in aging europe.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#135

Post by tsunamifury »

24 In the process, one of his debtors was brought in who owed him millions of dollars.[c] 25 He couldn’t pay, so his master ordered that he be sold—along with his wife, his children, and everything he owned—to pay the debt.

26 “But the man fell down before his master and begged him, ‘Please, be patient with me, and I will pay it all.’ 27 Then his master was filled with pity for him, and he released him and forgave his debt.

28 “But when the man left the king, he went to a fellow servant who owed him a few thousand dollars.[d] He grabbed him by the throat and demanded instant payment.

“His fellow servant fell down before him and begged for a little more time. ‘Be patient with me, and I will pay it,’ he pleaded. But his creditor wouldn’t wait. He had the man arrested and put in prison until the debt could be paid in full.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#136

Post by prawn »

sgnelson wrote: post #21

This makes me lose respect for Piketty. There's a very clear difference between a country that comes out of two world wars, with everything all but destroyed, including millions dead. I'm sorry, no matter how bad 2008 was, it was no World War. His inability to grasp this just boggles the mind. There's a very big difference between war caused debt and economic caused debt (note that I'm basically making these two "deb…

Personally, I thought his argument was very reasonable, and I also appreciated that the interviewer pressed him where appropriate to draw out some quality discussion.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#137

Post by alexqgb »

tptacek wrote: post #131
alexqgb wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, what? It will be forced into austerity? I'm sorry, but they have been. Past tense, like…years ago. That's why they're suffering a 25% unemployment rate and a contraction of GDP that exceeds what the U.S. saw in the Great Depression.

Yes, but wherever they are now (after troika-mediated austerity), it's going to be worse after they lose their funding, isn't it?

Not necessarily. In the short run, perhaps, but that's not the point. The point is that your analysis reflects a very poor grasp of what's happening.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#138

Post by [deleted] »

adventured wrote: post #44
vruiz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you go from "tax on private wealth" to "tax on the poor"?

Inflation always hits the non-rich the hardest. The rich have countless options for avoiding inflation. Those that are primarily wage dependent, do not. This is why the wealth gap has expanded so much in the US the last 15 years: the abuse levied on the dollar. Take a look at how nearly every single thing priced in dollars zoomed after 2001, including the GDP of every nation on earth and commodities - all went up sim…

[deleted]

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#139

Post by chadaustin »

i_s wrote: post #132
HSO wrote: post #59

At the risk of being a moralizing bore, may I remind everybody that "Germany", "Greece" etc. are not people, and that people are not countries? I am surprised by the national coloring, however faint, of some comments here and there https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9834721 . "I am a German" or "Greek here" should have no relevance to the ideas put forth. "Your money" and "your banks" are not really "my money" and…

> The theory of complex systems reminds us that aggregates can have properties that are not traceable to any individuals themselves. Game theory tells us that incentives and constraints can get so messed up that developments take on an eigendynamic which was nobody's intent nor interest. I'm interested in those ideas. Can you give a link to any information about them?

Some of my personal favorite resources on this topic:

http://www.amazon.com/Introduction-General-Systems-Thinking-...

http://www.amazon.com/The-Systems-Bible-Beginners-Guide/dp/0...

http://www.amazon.com/Ackoffs-Best-Classic-Writings-Manageme...

I really enjoyed these books, but I am not super well-read in this area, so there may be better ones out there. You could try searching for "systems theory" and see what other resources are out there.

Systems theory is a very broad topic, so you'll find it attached to many specific disciplines, but the general idea is that you can take a bunch of simple things, hook them together, and produce a "being" that has totally weird behavior in aggregate.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#140

Post by tptacek »

alexqgb wrote: post #137
tptacek wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but wherever they are now (after troika-mediated austerity), it's going to be worse after they lose their funding, isn't it?

Not necessarily. In the short run, perhaps, but that's not the point. The point is that your analysis reflects a very poor grasp of what's happening.

I believe you, but could you flesh that critique out some more? My understanding of Greek's fundamentals start here:

http://pseudoerasmus.com/2015/02/23/greece-orthodoxy-peronis...

(this was linked from the Interfluidity thing everyone was talking about before) and continues through here:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15165.pdf

(which I read when someone claimed Greece had a 2014 primary surplus, which IMF disputes), and is colored by Tyler Cowen:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/the...

... who I do not agree with on most things, to the extent that matters, but whose commentary on Syriza and Greek financing I now understand a little better.

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