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Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

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Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#21
This makes me lose respect for Piketty. There's a very clear difference between a country that comes out of two world wars, with everything all but destroyed, including millions dead. I'm sorry, no matter how bad 2008 was, it was no World War. His inability to grasp this just boggles the mind.

There's a very big difference between war caused debt and economic caused debt (note that I'm basically making these two "debts" up, and things are more nuanced obviously, but I'm going to ignore the nuances for now, these are very broad strokes.) When you come out of war, you're either the loser or the victor (one way or another, there are very few true "ties" in war.) And while capital may be destroyed in both cases, an economic crises doesn't necessarily leave your physical infrastructure and entire social system completely unrecognizable.

Further, Piketty seemingly completely ignores the Marshall Plan and all that it included in rebuilding Europe. And yes the Marshall plan was a form of debt forgiveness, but as a huge portion of the European continent was a smoking crater, things were different in 1945 than Greece in 2015.

Further, some historians/economists will argue that the "German miracle" (and "Japanese miracle" as well) were in part because of the destruction cased by the wars. With all the manufacturing capabilities destroyed, they were able to rebuild with the latest and greatest technology of the time. (and if you take this further, as the US was able to rest on it's un-destroyed capital equipment and make huge profits during the rest of the 1940's, 50's and early 60's, and never re-invested as Germany and Japan were forced too, this eventually lead to the downfall of the US Industrial might, in part.)

Personally, I think this has more to do with his French nationalism than anything else, at least as it appears to me in the interview.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#22
Debt cuts are one thing, but I see no reason to believe that there's a wide enough acceptance for a EU-wide fiscal policy to go along with the unified monetary policy. I might see France and Germany going along with that (mostly because it'll basically be their policy), but the UK won't have none of it -- and I don't think the PIIGS states would accept it either.

On the other hand, if things keep going wrong, people might just be forced to accept this as a fact, I just hope it won't be too late by then.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#23
post #10

There's one way in which Picketty is right: it's impossible to force a country to repay their debt. After WW1 France tried first through international (England) enforcement bodies, and then ultimately by occupation of the Ruhr valley (Germany's most productive region then). Both approaches failed. Eventually the Weimar inflated their currency until the French debt was worth nothing, workers in the Ruhr valley striked…

There are ways. See the case of Argentina.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#24

"The second method is much faster. ... Essentially, it consists of three components: inflation, a special tax on private wealth, and debt relief." So Piketty is advocating a special tax on the poor. The group of people that can least deal with inflation, with no ability to shift assets or income to avoid it, nor deal with the increased cost of goods in relation to their debased incomes.

The poor don't get taxed if the special tax is progressive (or non-existent at lower levels of income/wealth). Of course, the argument that such a tax being effective is impossible these days due to contemporary mobility of wealth may well be true. That still doesn't amount to a special tax on the poor, and I'm sure you realize Piketty wouldn't advocate for that, whether or not you agree with his positions.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#25
That argument gets thrown around a lot, but it is quite a terrible one.

After WW2, the only Germany which acknowledged war and pre-war debts was the FDR. This was a state in ruins under foreign military occupation, with about half the territory and population of the former German state that had incurred those debts.

If post-war Germany is your standard for debt relief, then Greece is still very, very far away from qualifying.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#26

"The second method is much faster. ... Essentially, it consists of three components: inflation, a special tax on private wealth, and debt relief." So Piketty is advocating a special tax on the poor. The group of people that can least deal with inflation, with no ability to shift assets or income to avoid it, nor deal with the increased cost of goods in relation to their debased incomes.

How do you go from "tax on private wealth" to "tax on the poor"?

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#27
post #15
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a Ponzi scheme if it is not always and necessarily growing.

Most western countries can't even afford paying the interest of their debt. So as it is, it is kinda necessarily growing. But the ponzi scheme aspect is rather the fact that countries can only pay back debt with new borrowing. If investors stop rolling their debt, even the US would collapse within a few months.

I thought the whole premise of modern economics relies on the assumption that the economy has to grow. Time value of money implies that the money has to create value -- in more specific term, if bank lend out $100 and want $102 back, without the economy growing the money supply can't have the extra $2 (printing more money without the economy growing cause inflation, then the bank will want more than $2 interest and it's the same, so we can ignore that).

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#28
The countries that were the Allied powers are in no position to call out Germany for not repaying its debts after the second world war because they originated from the way the Allied powers handled the money situation during and after the Great War.

Look at this quote:

> We cannot demand that new generations must pay for decades for the mistakes of their parents. The Greeks have, without a doubt, made big mistakes. Until 2009, the government in Athens forged its books. But despite this, the younger generation of Greeks carries no more responsibility for the mistakes of its elders than the younger generation of Germans did in the 1950s and 1960s. We need to look ahead. Europe was founded on debt forgiveness and investment in the future. Not on the idea of endless penance. We need to remember this.

In my opinion, this economist just wants to be the next Finance Minister for Greece. If the "older generation" (and I don't know how we can call what happened until six years ago a different generation but we'll let that slide) forged books, then cut them off. Cut their pensions. Cut their retirements. Make them come back to work. You can't blame the "older generation" and still let them retire at 50.

It is incredibly insensitive to blame the German victims of the Versailles Treaty. Do people blame Germany for France's greed? I mean it is pretty evident that the growth of Nazis in Germany came directly from what the Allies levied on Germany.

Moreover, to say that the situation in 2008-09 was equivalent to the horrors that people faced before and during the second world is nothing short of rewriting history. I don't think the people who lived through the great depression would take very kindly of statements like:

> To deny the historical parallels to the postwar period would be wrong. Let’s think about the financial crisis of 2008/2009. This wasn’t just any crisis. It was the biggest financial crisis since 1929. So the comparison is quite valid. This is equally true for the Greek economy: between 2009 and 2015, its GDP has fallen by 25%. This is comparable to the recessions in Germany and France between 1929 and 1935.

With all that being said, I must agree with him in one key point:

> A restructuring of all debt, not just in Greece but in several European countries, is inevitable.

Eurozone must stick together. However, the Greeks must realize a compromise consists of a give and take. They must seek answers from those who were in power in Athens before 2009.

In hindsight, even organizing the 2004 Olympics was a horrible idea. But then hindsight is 20/20.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#29
This guy is a reknowned economist? He's conflating "war reparations" with "external debt", and also seems to have missed the big fanfare recently when Germany paid the last of it's WWI reparations - instead he claims they never paid any WWI or WWII reparations. Similarly, 'England took 100 years to repay' he claims as the way forward, yet ignores that Germany took 92 to pay their WWI debt[1]. Not hard, I guess, since he thinks that there was no repayment at all.

He also talks of Germany's post WWII debt completely independently of the Marshall Plan and the Allies pouring money in to counter the Soviets. This is clearly just an axe being ground.

[1]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315869/Germany-end-...

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#30
post #3

If you believe Piketty, debt is never meant to be repaid and no one should therefore ever invest in sovereign debt. That would solve the debt debate. No creditor = no need to worry about whether we want to pile more debt. And he has a point. I personally don't believe that any of the US, Japanese and European sovereign debt will ever be repaid. The whole thing is a ponzi scheme. Investors hope that their investment w…

There are multiple ponzi schemes here: first and foremost the very idea of nations (victim: the individuals), then that of centrally issued money (victim: the individuals), then that of a regional zone of political unity built upon these established ponzi schemes (victim: the individual's already questionable right to self-determination through their 'nations'), and finally that of the global economy' incorporating other major examples such systems - chiefly the US and China (victim: the planet).

One can scream "debt must be repaid!" while running limited liability companies that can declare bankruptcy and allow them to walk away, in countries where political will can be bought on the open market, and media is openly dominated and subtly influenced by corporate and political contributions and donations, all while the global environment suffers and we are soon to have serious issues meeting even our basic human needs like fresh air and water. One may even consider oneself to be 'right' in doing so, however, one is also ignorant of a wider truth.

What we really need here are some proposals for alternatives, and some people willing to try them - such as Greece.

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