Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're spot on in that citations are largely the pagerank metric and that's really what "counts", but there's a need for having an earlier metric. Journal impact factor is a computation based on historical citation count of articles in a journal. The leap of faith is then that if you publish in a journal that has a history of publishing highly cited work, that means your work is good and likely to be highly cited. Th…
That makes sense. I'm curious what you think about variants on the PageRank idea that address the slowness problem you point out. You state in an earlier comment “so if there was a committee that provided that evaluation entirely outside of the publishing ecosystem, that would be great”. You could theoretically have a PageRank-like system where some nodes are papers, some nodes are committees, and (maybe) some nodes…
The other thing that could make citation data more useful earlier might be taking a more complex view of citations. PageRank doesn't equally weight links, ie links from authoritative sources like the NYT count more than random sites. I think there's plenty of room for improvement in applying similar mechanisms to enhance citation metrics. And maybe some of that could start playing into making citation metrics more useful earlier in the process. If you only have one citation, but it's from a preprint article written by a Nobel Prize winner, that should count more than 10 citations from published articles by random postdocs (although I have a feeling that even that idea wouldn't be accepted without a lot of controversy in academia).