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Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

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Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#41

Tangential to OP: How does HN feel about the "evilness" of Uber? At my school the general feel is that Uber is pretty evil, notably for its attitudes towards its drivers as well as towards Lyft.

Uber has come along and made every single thing about cab journeys better. People complaining about it look like idiots.

The only evil here is whatever it was that made it take so long for this change to come about.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#42
post #5
post #2

This is really interesting. I believe this might be attribute to all the Uber promotions in Asia. I have heard from all my friends in India/China that Uber rides are actually free for around 10-15 rides. Also, they are giving tons of money to Drivers to promote Uber in India. An average Uber driver in Bangalore earns 110000 INR per month where as an entry level software engineer in GOOG/AMZN in India earns 80000 INR/…

I'm still surprised that Uber is entering such competitive markets. I mean, in much of the western world, they're using a mobile app to side step cab hailing laws and break long standing taxi oligopolies. Does anyone know what market flaws they're solving in India and Asia?

If you think taxis are bad in the US, they are 10x worse outside of it.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#43
post #10

Tangential to OP: How does HN feel about the "evilness" of Uber? At my school the general feel is that Uber is pretty evil, notably for its attitudes towards its drivers as well as towards Lyft.

I feel like most of the hatred of Uber is manufactured, and that the people who whip themselves into a frenzy over it are allowing themselves to be manipulated.

OK I will take your challenge. You can read a detailed description of why I hate Uber above (tl;dr: shady practices pushing towards indentured servitude and weaking the very rule of law). What's manufactured of it and how am I being manipulated?

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#44

These are old numbers. IIRC they're estimating 10bn gross this year, with 20-30% margins.

I think you mean "net revenue" (rider receipts less payments to drivers).

And if the $417m is from Q4 2014 (or even Q1 2015), 200% growth this year would surpass $3b (i.e., 30% of $10b).

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#45
post #38

There was a comment thread earlier today about whether Uber is solving rich-people problems or common-people problems. I wonder the extent to which Uber's pricing is sustainable -- are they subsidizing uberX and uberPOOL pricing out of money they're raising, or are the debts just in the pursuit of growth to new cities? Or put another way, if they ceased all growth, froze prices, and laid off all engineering and marke…

It would be crazy profitable.

But it is subsidizing a lot of rides right now, for example "Pool" rides where riders get the discount even if they are the only passenger.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#46
I've been pondering how you'd break the uber lock on the market. I mean, I use Uber and not Lyft 'cause there are more Uber drivers, so on average, the car is gonna be there faster if I use Uber.

However, if I had an app on my phone to check the nearest uber and the nearest lyft and the nearest whatever else? that would remove the barrier to entry that Uber has set up. in that case (at least when lyft had a nearby car) I'd be happy to take lyft or the local cab company, if they had a similar app.

Of course, you'd end up with an arms race with uber, or whoever the dominant player was, with them trying to break your app.

Interestingly, I bet that the second and third tier ride-sharing companies would cooperate, so if there were enough of them in the area, the idea would work fine even when uber was winning the arms race.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#47
post #40

Tangential to OP: How does HN feel about the "evilness" of Uber? At my school the general feel is that Uber is pretty evil, notably for its attitudes towards its drivers as well as towards Lyft.

Having worked for financial traders I won't call them the very worst company in the world. But if my choices were working for them or quitting the industry, I wouldn't blink. For me it's more the accumulation of awfulness. They started out as a scheme to time-share limos among young entitled dudebros. They entered the market with the black cars, exploiting a status-good dynamic. They've shifted all of the capital cos…

'In the Uber model we'll get paid only during the instants we are directly useful to somebody with money.'

I'm sorry, but that sounds more like the efficiency that capitalism optimizes towards.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#48
post #26

Tangential to OP: How does HN feel about the "evilness" of Uber? At my school the general feel is that Uber is pretty evil, notably for its attitudes towards its drivers as well as towards Lyft.

There's the issue where they are pushing the drivers into indentured servitude http://valleywag.gawker.com/uber-and-its-shady-partners-are-... And just because the cab regulations overshot in many places it does not mean no regulations is the answer. Also, while civil disobedience is laudable the same can't be said from a company. Problem is, what if next time a company finds another set of regulations / laws it does…

After the story of Night School, people are a lot less inclined to think that making nice with the law will work out well. What we've learned is that attempting to work within the law will get you squished by those you are disrupting before you become big enough to be a threat - or defend yourself effectively.

With that in mind, what do you think the right approach is?

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#49
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competitors lowering their pricing is not going to magically cause an exodus of customers who are attached to using Uber. Price change would be gradual, if done correctly, imperceptible. Plus, those competitors are being squeezed right now, who knows if they will be around once Uber decides to raise pricing to move towards profit. As they say on Wall Street, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay sol…

Let's assume their strategy works and they win an effective monopoly. What's stopping a "new Uber" coming along, funded by a couple of billion in VC money, to attack Uber's monopoly position by offering the same service cheaper. If winning a market can be done by subsidising your offering with VC cash then someone else will come along and do it as soon as Uber push for higher prices. While there's huge amounts of pri…

Reality is the opposite. Uber is building a commanding, monopoly-like position whereby it can raise and lower prices as necessary. Not only does winning a market require way more than subsidies but Uber is also in the best position to subsidize.

Re: Uber Bonds Term Sheet Reveals $470M in Operating Losses

#50
post #45
post #38

There was a comment thread earlier today about whether Uber is solving rich-people problems or common-people problems. I wonder the extent to which Uber's pricing is sustainable -- are they subsidizing uberX and uberPOOL pricing out of money they're raising, or are the debts just in the pursuit of growth to new cities? Or put another way, if they ceased all growth, froze prices, and laid off all engineering and marke…

It would be crazy profitable. But it is subsidizing a lot of rides right now, for example "Pool" rides where riders get the discount even if they are the only passenger.

That was the parent's question. If they froze prices with these subsidies, would it continue?
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