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China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#41

Post by anthony_barker »

nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

Peter Drucker forecasted this 30 years ago. Agriculture went from 50% -> 2% of the workforce. Same is happening with Manufacturing. The main issue is training.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#42

Post by vidarh »

DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

Capitalism "eating itself" by getting too efficient to continue to provide work for everyone was Marx central thesis for why a socialist revolution would be inevitable, so nothing "neo" about it.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#43

Post by deelowe »

qyv wrote: post #22
nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

Perhaps the technological singularity that we end up facing is not one of AI but one of nation-scale automation?

I would phrase it as mechanization becomes a better investment than human capital.

It's the tipping point where humans, more often than not, no longer provide value. I can't help but feel we are VERY close.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#44

Post by mason240 »

vidarh wrote: post #42
DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

Capitalism "eating itself" by getting too efficient to continue to provide work for everyone was Marx central thesis for why a socialist revolution would be inevitable, so nothing "neo" about it.

Where did he predict that?

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#45

Post by nugget »

deelowe wrote: post #43
qyv wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the technological singularity that we end up facing is not one of AI but one of nation-scale automation?

I would phrase it as mechanization becomes a better investment than human capital. It's the tipping point where humans, more often than not, no longer provide value. I can't help but feel we are VERY close.

When this tipping is reached then society may reorganize itself around concepts like basic income and so forth. It seems like a safe bet that a single, cohesive society could survive this transition without a huge amount of chaos. But what happens when you have hundreds of countries with opposing interests who all hit this wall at about the same time?

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#46

Post by tim333 »

mason240 wrote: post #44
vidarh wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism "eating itself" by getting too efficient to continue to provide work for everyone was Marx central thesis for why a socialist revolution would be inevitable, so nothing "neo" about it.

Where did he predict that?

In some vast waffly book no doubt but there is a summary of the argument here:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/21/creditcrunch...

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#47

Post by meddlepal »

nugget wrote: post #45
deelowe wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would phrase it as mechanization becomes a better investment than human capital. It's the tipping point where humans, more often than not, no longer provide value. I can't help but feel we are VERY close.

When this tipping is reached then society may reorganize itself around concepts like basic income and so forth. It seems like a safe bet that a single, cohesive society could survive this transition without a huge amount of chaos. But what happens when you have hundreds of countries with opposing interests who all hit this wall at about the same time?

I really doubt those reforms will be quick and or painless. It's easy to say society will reorganize around those concepts but you're probably talking decades of struggle to get those reforms.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#48

Post by viola11 »

tormeh wrote: post #33
DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

The body/mind is still valuable because it belongs to a human and humans like seeing other humans do shit for them. Makes them feel important. The future jobs lie in artisanal goods and various kinds of prostitution. Automation won't decrease the total amount of jobs, but I'm worried about inequality.

That's a great comment! I am in awe of the cynicism and misanthropy it contains. Machiavelli himself would go "Dang, that's dark dude".

- Man, Uber just perfected self driving cars and closed my account with them, what am I gonna do now? - I hear prostition is still around.

- Shit, some kid in Senegal just released a database server that can create a sensible schema from an excel sheet, even creating translation layers between the insanity the end user put in and the sensible internal representation! There are no DBA jobs left in the world, what am I gonna do? - I heard those rich actors in Hollywood have acquired a taste for their own "best boys" with strong "grip"...

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#49

Post by saiya-jin »

vidarh wrote: post #42
DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

Capitalism "eating itself" by getting too efficient to continue to provide work for everyone was Marx central thesis for why a socialist revolution would be inevitable, so nothing "neo" about it.

yeah, and having real world socialism with vastly underperforming economy, forcing everybody to have a job, creating pointless jobs to to fill this criteria (and unleashing state terror on those who don't fit in).

if you think i'm joking, unfortunately no. had lived in socialist country and i can still see the damage on people 20 years after we switched to democracy. people went to jail if they refused to work. if they spoke against the regime, things might got worse. economy-wise - our neighbor Austria after WWII borrowed from us money to rebuild itself. after 40 years of socialism, when curtain fell, they were light years and more ahead of us, in everything, thank you central planning. i felt like a poor beggar coming there first time.

Sorry if my reaction offended anyone, i'm just too allergic of anything reeking of socialism. nothing beats first hand experience

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#50

Post by pnathan »

saiya-jin wrote: post #49
vidarh wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism "eating itself" by getting too efficient to continue to provide work for everyone was Marx central thesis for why a socialist revolution would be inevitable, so nothing "neo" about it.

yeah, and having real world socialism with vastly underperforming economy, forcing everybody to have a job, creating pointless jobs to to fill this criteria (and unleashing state terror on those who don't fit in). if you think i'm joking, unfortunately no. had lived in socialist country and i can still see the damage on people 20 years after we switched to democracy. people went to jail if they refused to work. if th…

I, for one, wish we had more memoirs of those who lived behind the Iron Curtain and the philosophies espoused by those countries in practice. I have an uncomfortable feeling that knowledge is dying out. :-/

Thanks for your comment.

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