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China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#31

Post by EGreg »

narrator wrote: post #8

"This is clearly unsustainable. After all, there eventually has to be a return on all those investments. Factories have to produce goods that are profitably sold. " Nope. In China loans go bad all the time and the government prints up some money to buy and resell the debt at a discount and things keep moving right along. They have a different system In China. This is so hard for anybody in America to get since econom…

Well as long as China is doing enough to import whatever it needs, it's fine. Most countries need certain imports, and that's the market discipline that limits what they can do. They want tourists, they want dollars, etc. If China was a completely closed system with no needs then yes, they could probably get away with a lot more.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#32

Post by tormeh »

victorhooi wrote: post #20
crdb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into cheaper countries. No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or e…

Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards , and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

Their economy has been going backwards, but so has the amount of working-age adults. Productivity is up. Japan's economic problems are simply a result of its demographical problems, which in turn are the result of cultural issues. It's not at all given that the same will happen to China.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#33

Post by tormeh »

DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

The body/mind is still valuable because it belongs to a human and humans like seeing other humans do shit for them. Makes them feel important. The future jobs lie in artisanal goods and various kinds of prostitution.

Automation won't decrease the total amount of jobs, but I'm worried about inequality.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#34

Post by victorhooi »

crdb wrote: post #21
victorhooi wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards , and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...

Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =)

That's hardly an apples to apples comparison.

I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#35

Post by crdb »

victorhooi wrote: post #34
crdb wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...

Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.

China definitely had its own WWII moment, the Great Leap Forward alone probably killed 30-40 million citizen, they executed or chased all their intellectuals out of the country... it was the "price" to pay to ensure there was no foreign influence in running the country.

Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living.

Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population.

Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#36

Post by fsloth »

EGreg wrote: post #30
anabis wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Have the workers own the robots I am pretty sure that workers are free to buy publically traded stock. I also would probably not invest if I were in their position.

That was Karl Marx's whole solution. Make the workers own the factories. We have a better way of socializing wealth. It's called the public stock market. Workers can buy shares of any corporation on it, not just their own, and they are protected by regulations. Having said that, I think that we should tax the machines. We are building a cage for ourselves with machines empowering organizations to monitor and control…

"tax the corporations for benefiting from automation, and redistribute the money to the population as unconditional basic income."

I think you have nailed the critical dynamic as well as any can.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#37

Post by wisty »

tormeh wrote: post #32
victorhooi wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards , and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

Their economy has been going backwards, but so has the amount of working-age adults. Productivity is up. Japan's economic problems are simply a result of its demographical problems, which in turn are the result of cultural issues. It's not at all given that the same will happen to China.

If you look at age structures, China is about 20 years behind Japan. Which doesn't bode well.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#38

Post by stupidcar »

It'll be grimly ironic if, having dragged behind the rest of the industrialized world for decades, suffering with all the attendant poverty and problems that dogged pre-industrial societies, then rapidly caught up, China end up being one of the first countries to shoot right past it to a totally post-industrial society, with all the new problems that are predicted to accompany it.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#39

Post by NoGravitas »

DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

Inserting obligatory reference to Fully Automated Luxury Communism[0].

[0]http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/mar/18/...

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#40

Post by sitkack »

narrator wrote: post #8

"This is clearly unsustainable. After all, there eventually has to be a return on all those investments. Factories have to produce goods that are profitably sold. " Nope. In China loans go bad all the time and the government prints up some money to buy and resell the debt at a discount and things keep moving right along. They have a different system In China. This is so hard for anybody in America to get since econom…

Don't we do the same thing in the states? Except we loan money to huge banks at 0% who turn around and sell that money back to the people @ 5+%
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