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Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

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Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#12
NSA adopted two man rule for system administration only after Snowden leaks. Before Snowden anyone with similar access as Snowden could have copied the same data.

What is the probability that at least one guy with same access as Snowden spied for China or Russia? I would say close to 1.0.

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#13
There's evidence that US government counter-intelligence and information security are very poor: Snowden, Manning, the recent break-in at OPM, etc. In past generations, nuclear plans were stolen, the heads of both FBI and CIA counter-intelligence have been moles, a Navy sailor kept the Soviets updated on the locations of US submarines, etc. Here's a list I came across recently: http://www.wearethemighty.com/american-spies-military-secret...

It's hard to know how bad or good the US's security is, because most intelligence operations are secret and I don't know enough about the field to have a standard by which to judge it. Maybe these things are the norm for most governments.

I would not be surprised if other governments already knew much of what Snowden made public. Some secrecy clearly is necessary for governments but how often does "secret" merely mean "unknown to the public" (but already known to enemies)?

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#14

Bruce Schneier is falling into the trap of saying since computer security is hard, the NSA has certainly been compromised and we can assume these docs have been out there for a while. Yes, securing the endpoint is hard, especially given the non-hardened OS and applications we mostly use. However, you can't extrapolate from that to say with certainty what has and hasn't been exposed via security flaws. The USSR was mu…

Snowden didn't create any flaws in NSA's internal systems (or at least, none that anyone's described publicly), but his actions certainly demonstrate that they were there. All Schneier is saying is that someone else could have taken advantage of the same flaws -- and that he thinks, given the givens, that someone else almost certainly did. He's not the only one who thinks the odds stack up like that...

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#15
post #14

Bruce Schneier is falling into the trap of saying since computer security is hard, the NSA has certainly been compromised and we can assume these docs have been out there for a while. Yes, securing the endpoint is hard, especially given the non-hardened OS and applications we mostly use. However, you can't extrapolate from that to say with certainty what has and hasn't been exposed via security flaws. The USSR was mu…

Snowden didn't create any flaws in NSA's internal systems (or at least, none that anyone's described publicly), but his actions certainly demonstrate that they were there. All Schneier is saying is that someone else could have taken advantage of the same flaws -- and that he thinks, given the givens, that someone else almost certainly did. He's not the only one who thinks the odds stack up like that...

Spying is a good thing. Real information keeps people from second guessing each other and prevents cold conflicts from becoming hot.

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#16

There's evidence that US government counter-intelligence and information security are very poor: Snowden, Manning, the recent break-in at OPM, etc. In past generations, nuclear plans were stolen, the heads of both FBI and CIA counter-intelligence have been moles, a Navy sailor kept the Soviets updated on the locations of US submarines, etc. Here's a list I came across recently: http://www.wearethemighty.com/american-…

> information security are very poor

this is necessarily the case. people are the biggest flaw followed by technology itself which is expected to be cheap and easy.

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#17
post #15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snowden didn't create any flaws in NSA's internal systems (or at least, none that anyone's described publicly), but his actions certainly demonstrate that they were there. All Schneier is saying is that someone else could have taken advantage of the same flaws -- and that he thinks, given the givens, that someone else almost certainly did. He's not the only one who thinks the odds stack up like that...

Spying is a good thing. Real information keeps people from second guessing each other and prevents cold conflicts from becoming hot.

So the trouble is only when your voters get the information necessary to vote rationally?

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#18

There's evidence that US government counter-intelligence and information security are very poor: Snowden, Manning, the recent break-in at OPM, etc. In past generations, nuclear plans were stolen, the heads of both FBI and CIA counter-intelligence have been moles, a Navy sailor kept the Soviets updated on the locations of US submarines, etc. Here's a list I came across recently: http://www.wearethemighty.com/american-…

The heads of the FBI/CIA I know they both had senior officers go bad but do you have any proof of this?

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#19
Assuming this is true "we have now seen our agents and assets being targeted”, there is another explanation why now - other than foreign agencies getting the documents Snowden took.

The explanation is called protecting intelligence sources: Russia, China - or whoever had their spies inside NSA long before, can now act on the intelligence they got without triggering counterintelligence alarms.

Re: Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

#20
post #15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snowden didn't create any flaws in NSA's internal systems (or at least, none that anyone's described publicly), but his actions certainly demonstrate that they were there. All Schneier is saying is that someone else could have taken advantage of the same flaws -- and that he thinks, given the givens, that someone else almost certainly did. He's not the only one who thinks the odds stack up like that...

Spying is a good thing. Real information keeps people from second guessing each other and prevents cold conflicts from becoming hot.

Spying is a wash - what you're saying is true, but it's only half the equation. Sometimes that second guessing is what keeps the conflict from becoming hot. Spying can compromise a country's defense to the extent another country feels comfortable attacking. Also, if a weaker country can maintain the facade of strength it's less likely to be attacked.

The most obvious example is when one country manages to uncover another country's nuclear assets to such a high degree of confidence it feels (rightly or wrongly) it can make a 100% successful first strike.

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